比特币波动性

Bitcoin Market Strategy Complete Summary
1. Overall Trend: Last week showed a fluctuating downward trend, with prices hovering below $90,000 since Wednesday, ultimately closing below last week's bull-bear line, with bears holding a temporary advantage.
2. Key Resistance Verification: $91,630 (Fibonacci 0.618 golden retracement point) has not been effectively breached, with multiple attempts being suppressed, and no trading day has remained above this level; the monthly bull-bear line has also faced significant pressure, being strongly suppressed after repeated touches last week, validating the effectiveness of the resistance.

2. Core Trading Parameters for This Week
1. This Week's Bull-Bear Line: $90,059 (current price hovers near this level, with intense long-short competition)
2. Long Position Take Profit: $92,752→$94,416→$97,110
3. Short Position Take Profit: $87,366→$85,702→$83,008
4. Key Resistance Level: $91,630 (continues to exert strong pressure this week, unchanged); $90,000 is an important psychological and practical threshold.

3. Long-Short Structure and Year-End Market Prediction

Short-term Structure (This Week): Prices fluctuate around $90,059, the bull-bear line for this week; if it can effectively break through this level, short-term bulls have a slight advantage; conversely, bears dominate the short-term trend.
Trend Structure (This Month): Technically, bears hold a clear advantage, with the monthly bull-bear line never being effectively breached, maintaining a medium to long-term bearish tone.
Year-End Market Characteristics: By December 31, the phenomenon of mutual killing in the options and stock markets will continue to intensify, becoming a core factor driving wide price fluctuations; if $90,000 is lost, it is very likely to fall below the average cost price of some listed companies' holdings, triggering passive selling and further amplifying downward momentum.
Conditions for Going Long: Only when the price effectively remains above $91,630 can short-term long positions be initiated, targeting this week's long take profit range, with strict attention to position and volume changes.
2. Conditions for Going Short: If the pressure at $91,630 remains effective, the strategy should still focus on shorting at highs, based on this resistance level, with the targets below successively focusing on this week's short take profit points. $BTC #比特币波动性

Recently watching the fluctuations of Bitcoin, it feels a bit different—from the high point of 126k in October, it is now hovering around 87k-88k, and the implied volatility (BVOL index) is still compressing, similar to the stock market's VIX, with a lower probability of large short-term swings. But historically, this kind of compression is often the calm before the storm, with year-end options expirations and a bunch of macro data, making it easy for a sudden wave to come.

To be honest, Bitcoin's volatility is its label; in the short term, it is noise, but in the long term, it is an opportunity for smart money to accumulate during dips.

CZ is now focused on Giggle Academy's global free education initiative, which adds some positive elements to the community through practical charity work. Those interested can take a look at @Max Charity ; they are gradually advancing similar initiatives.

#比特币波动性

12.16 Bitcoin Strategy: Today is a suggestion for everyone to play short-term; it is estimated that before the news of Japan's interest rate hike on the 18th, there will likely be fluctuations. Bitcoin tested support at 850 in the early morning, and the support is effective, so 850 can be used as a defense to aim for long positions. Also, pay attention to the resistance around 865 during the day. If it stabilizes above 865, the rebound space can reach the 870-872 range. Only by breaking through the pressure at 872 will the rebound channel be completely opened. Given the current market's volume and strength, the probability is high. Regarding the strategy, first check if 865 can stabilize; if it stabilizes, then look at the strength of the resistance at 870-872. If it faces pressure, then take action. It is suggested to consider entering around the support near 850, with a large range of 850-870, aiming for high shorts and low longs. $BTC
#巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #比特币波动性

The decline of Bitcoin prices on December 16, 2025, is the result of multiple factors, including macroeconomic policies, institutional actions, market conditions, and external financial environments. The specific reasons are as follows:

1. Diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts: After the Fed's rate cut last week, Powell did not clarify whether to continue cutting rates in January next year. Several officials also signaled that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive. Currently, the market expects a 75.6% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January next year. The failure of easing expectations has caused cryptocurrencies, as a risk asset, to lose liquidity support, leading to significant capital withdrawal.

2. Institutions lower expectations and withdraw funds: Standard Chartered has lowered its Bitcoin price forecast for the end of the year to around $100,000, with next year's target price reduced to $150,000, which is only half of the previous estimate, impacting market confidence. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF under BlackRock has faced six consecutive weeks of net fund outflows, with institutional selling or capital withdrawal causing Bitcoin's rise to lose important funding support.

3. Synchronization with the US stock market weakening: As institutions enter the market through compliant channels like ETFs, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has increased. Before December 16, US stocks opened high but fell, and last Friday, US stocks declined, with its negative impact continuing to ferment. Bitcoin subsequently fell in tandem, further lowering prices.

4. Weak market liquidity and sustained selling pressure: Currently, Bitcoin trading is oscillating within a narrow range, with insufficient market trading interest and low trading volumes, making it difficult to generate effective rebound momentum. This decline is driven by adjustments in spot and derivatives positions, with high-leverage positions largely cleared. The market faces mild but persistent selling pressure and struggles to attract bottom-fishing capital, resulting in a slow downward trend.

5. Geopolitical risks trigger risk aversion: On December 14, the US and Ukraine held closed-door talks on the 'peace plan.' Although they claimed to have made significant progress, no specific details were disclosed. This geopolitical uncertainty has led investors to reduce allocations to risk assets like Bitcoin to avoid risks, turning to safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds, indirectly exacerbating Bitcoin's decline. $BTC #比特币波动性

📌 Serialization II | What Happens on the Day of Japan's Rate Hike 【Implementation】

🇯🇵 Once Japan officially raises interest rates, the market's first reaction usually comes down to one word: chaos.
It's not that the fundamentals have changed,
but rather that leverage is being forcibly liquidated.
💥 Common occurrences in the crypto space when a rate hike is implemented:
1️⃣ Instant magnification of volatility
2️⃣ High-leverage positions being concentrated and liquidated
3️⃣ Technical patterns briefly distorted
📌 Many people will misjudge:
"Is the trend reversing?"
In most cases: no, it's an emotional release.
📊 BTC / ETH technical levels (on the day of implementation)
BTC:
Key observation: $84,000 – $86,000
Scenario analysis:
Rapid drop + rebound → Healthy turnover
Falls below 84K and doesn't recover → Risk escalates
ETH:
Key observation: $4,100 – $4,300
Scenario analysis:
No break on the spike → Main force accumulating
Volume drops below → Short-term defense
🧠 Operating principles on the day of implementation
Don't chase rebounds, don't try to catch the first move.
Let the market "complete its emotions" first
Wait for 4H / daily structure confirmation
Better to be a step slow than to be cannon fodder $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹 #比特币波动性

The Air Force MVP settlement screen for today! Big cake 86000, Ethereum 2950. When it comes, it comes! I’m already tired of saying it.

Brothers, we should all understand the gold content of today's strategy! $BTC $ETH $BNB #加密市场观察 #美联储降息 #比特币波动性

This week is essentially the 'finals' of the cryptocurrency world this year. Macro news is all piling up: in the U.S., from regulatory meetings, non-farm payrolls, CPI to unemployment data; in Japan, the final interest rate decision. Once the Christmas holiday arrives, the market will clearly slow down, so whether it's policies, institutional adjustments, or large capital inflows and outflows, it's highly likely that all will be completed this week. For us, this is also a time point where we 'must make choices': should we reduce positions, should we change coins, should we clear out garbage projects? It's best not to procrastinate any longer. It's normal for the bull market to not perform as expected, but investments shouldn't rely on emotions. If we really need to cut losses, I would rather do it early and be light for the next round.

What makes the market tense is Japan's interest rate hike on Friday, with the probability almost at 100%. Japan has been the source of global low-interest funds for years, and once they raise interest rates, withdrawing funds is a tangible negative for all risk assets. If hawkish expectations are also given, the cryptocurrency market may suffer another hit, with some even predicting Bitcoin to reach 70,000.

Altcoins are in a worse situation, essentially facing indiscriminate slaughter. Older altcoins are hitting new lows, and newly listed projects are generally breaking below their issue prices, making it increasingly difficult to rely on rebounds for recovery. The few that can still perform well against the trend are almost all manipulated coins, where you can only look at tactics and not trust the fundamentals. However, once the capital chain breaks for these coins, they will plunge without mercy, so don’t get attached to fighting.
$BTC

#比特币波动性

This week may be the most critical week in the crypto world this year. $BTC

All the heavyweight news is converging: US CPI, non-farm payrolls, regulatory trends, and the culminating Japanese interest rate decision.

With the Christmas holiday approaching, the market will enter a "slowdown mode". The large fund reallocations and the impact of policies are likely to be concentrated and released in these few days.

For you and me, this is a window that must be clear. Is the position too heavy? Should weak coins be cleared? It’s best not to delay decisions until after the holiday.

In a bull market, underperforming trends are the norm, but investing cannot rely on emotional endurance. If adjustment is necessary, I would prefer to be decisive and wait lightly for the next opportunity.

The real focus is on the Japanese interest rate hike, which is nearly a done deal by Friday.

As a long-term low-cost funding source globally, once Japan shifts direction, the pressure from risk assets retreating is real.

If the signal leans "hawkish", the market may face further pressure.

The situation for altcoins is even more difficult, with almost indiscriminate declines.

Old coins are hitting new lows, and new coins are frequently breaking below their issue price, making it increasingly hard to expect a quick rebound to break even.

The few that can rise against the trend are often highly controlled "demonic coins"; these coins only discuss funding tactics, not fundamentals. Once the main force withdraws, the decline will be swift and severe, so avoid getting stuck in a losing battle.

At such times, staying calm is more important than chasing volatility. Plan ahead, execute decisively, and you can stay at the table to wait for the market's true turnaround. @luck萧

#比特币波动性

$BTC

There are always regrets when reviewing trades
Clearly it should have dropped, why didn’t I dare to short?
It dropped, and I blame myself for not holding
It rose, and I regret that my position was too light, didn’t catch it all...

Actually, this has been said before — the core of trading is to get into a good position, not to miss the point, which has high requirements for position control, just like mentioned before, the simplest example is to hold BNB long-term🈳, back then it was 1000, as long as the discipline is strong enough, the process doesn’t need to be monitored, set a liquidation line for your own bottom line

But this shouldn’t be said too confidently
Afraid that beginners might not understand and follow blindly
In the end, it’s still oneself who gets hurt

There are always emotions of regret and unwillingness in trading, if the market moves as expected, one either complains about the small position, when the order is not closed, the mind is always uneasy, if it doesn’t move as expected, then regrets why I opened so big...

It’s better to treat trading as a career
Even if the stop-loss incurs a loss
It’s just the trial and error cost that should be part of the career
It’s not considered paying tuition fees if you keep summarizing
#btc eth#比特币波动性

$BNB

Global Central Bank Storm Week: --- Tonight, the focus is on non-farm payroll data, which has not been released for two months. Market sentiment is still quite unstable!

If the news is bad, it might head towards breaking 8, with a possibility of touching a low again! However, most people are still relatively optimistic about positive news, but in a situation of insufficient market liquidity, even if there is a bullish trend, it won't lead to a significant one-sided rise. There will be an increase, but it won't be particularly large, with a spike followed by a continued decline...

Bitcoin can be accumulated in batches at the 8.8--8.85 range, while Ethereum can be accumulated in batches at 3100--3150.

The market seems calm, but in reality, there are undercurrents! On December 19, the daily rate was raised to the highest level in 30 years, completing two interest rate hikes this year. The Fed's interest rate cut did not lead to continued upward performance. Market sentiment is still relatively optimistic, but in any volatility, it is best to maintain solid risk control!

#ETH走势分析 #比特币波动性 The market is alive, and people's thinking should be alive as well. Before entering the market, there should be a mental scale to know where the breaking point is, which is the so-called defense line. Being aware of this allows for a strategy that is both offensive and defensive, enabling smooth operations without being passive or confused!

$FOLKS My take profit at 8.8 is already in place. Find a point for the pullback and continue shorting, and that's it. I still see this coin as bearish. If you want to follow, hurry up and don't miss the entry point. A-Nian only makes certain trades for fans, and I won't give out random orders. I'm not a perpetual profit master, so if you only want to make profits without understanding, don't come. What I can offer is only about 80%, including your position management, and I will monitor the market in real-time.
#比特币波动性 #BinanceABCs #特朗普取消农产品关税 #美国非农数据超预期

📣 Detailed analysis and trading suggestions for Ethereum on 12/16:

　 As shown in the four-hour trend chart, the current Ethereum trend is gradually evolving from an upward channel to a downward channel, and the current trend may retrace to touch the previous low point around 2720.

　　From the four-hour Ethereum price trend analysis, in the recent 4-hour cycle, the price has gradually rebounded from the low point of 2920 to 2954, forming a small upward candlestick; however, it is still in a downward trend overall, with three consecutive days of bearish closing on the daily chart. Moreover, yesterday's lowest price of 2876 is close to the previous support area, indicating a potential short-term rebound demand. The MACD on the 4-hour cycle shows a continuous negative value in the histogram, with the fast and slow lines operating below the zero axis, indicating that bearish strength is dominant but has weakened. The RSI on the 4-hour cycle is 36.15, not yet in the oversold range but leaning towards weakness; the daily RSI value is relatively low, indicating weak market sentiment. The current price is below EMA7 (2978) and EMA30 (3075), and short-term moving average suppression is significant. EMA120 (3102) is far from the current price, and the long-term trend remains bearish. The 4-hour trading volume is 43506, which has decreased compared to previous high-volume periods, indicating a temporary stalemate between bulls and bears. The daily trading volume is 159353, significantly lower than the high trading volume during the recent crash, indicating a decrease in market activity.

　　Ethereum trading suggestions for 12/16:

　　It is recommended to enter short positions when Ethereum rebounds to the range of 2960-2980, with target points: 2920-2880-2840. If it breaks below 2800, the target will be the previous low point near 2720.

　　If the trend continues to rebound, it is recommended to add positions near 3030, with target points: 2970-2920!

　　The market changes rapidly, and the article has practical applicability. Real-time strategies are provided free of charge! #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #比特币波动性 $BTC $ETH

Daily on-chain data interpretation, explained in simple terms for everyone.

Indicator Name: Bitcoin Adaptive Momentum Index

Remarks: Simply put, when the "WMS" index falls to the lower bound of "Extrem", it usually marks the beginning of the accumulation phase, during which whales often absorb the chips sold off by retail investors.

For instance, in the past few occurrences of similar situations, Bitcoin experienced sideways consolidation, ultimately ending with a strong upward trend.

Although we cannot expect an immediate breakthrough of historical highs, at least we can foresee the price partially rebounding to the range of $100,000 to $110,000.
$BTC $ETH $XRP #比特币波动性

Today $ETH market range is fluctuating, expected to oscillate between 2930-2960.

Currently, the market is in a fluctuating range, with prices repeatedly testing within a specific range, which is a common phase of range consolidation. We can adopt a long-short dual strategy, that is, to conduct short-term operations within the range:

Buy at 2930, take profit at 2960; Sell at 2960, take profit at 2930.

Prices are fluctuating repeatedly within the range, without breaking through obvious support and resistance levels. In this market, the key to operation is to seize short-term fluctuations, not to chase a single direction, but to operate back and forth based on the high and low points of the range.

Follow Yun Ge's operational ideas!

#巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析 #比特币波动性

I used a strategy to turn 3200U into 185,000U—without relying on luck, but purely on execution.

Let me share a true case:
An old reader asked me last October, saying he had blown up his account twice and was left with only 3200U, wanting to give it one last shot.

I didn't give him any illusions; I just asked him to execute a complete position model + rolling position strategy.
In the first two months, he didn't make much money, just strictly executing every order's take profit and stop loss.

But starting from the third month, the funds began to accelerate; on the 92nd day, the account broke through 185,000U, and the whole process had no heavy positions or significant drawdowns.

This is not an isolated case.

Over the past year, I have successfully run this “rolling position + risk control + rhythm judgment” method, from doing it myself, to friends following along, to many readers practicing, with very stable results:
✅ Some have turned 4800U into 76,000 in less than 60 days;
✅ Some have rebounded from 700U to 19,000, achieving high tolerance for low capital;
✅ Others stabilized profits after three months of losses using this strategy, without blowing their accounts again.

To summarize, this strategy has only three components:
Stable positions and risk control: No single order exceeds 20% of total capital, with a fixed stop loss not exceeding 3%.
Only trade the main trend segment: Avoid sideways markets, don't follow news waves, and only capture continuation orders after technical level breakthroughs.
Review to find rhythm: Record profits and losses and entry-exit reasons weekly to find high win-rate patterns to repeat.

Now many people have little capital but are still messing around:
Going all in, adding when losing, chasing when rising, continuously trial and error, with accounts never recovering.
The market isn't absent; it's just that you haven't established a compounding system.

I don't encourage anyone to gamble for a turnaround, but I know small capital can turn things around, provided you stop relying on impulsive trading.

You may not believe my words, but you cannot deny a fact:
As long as you no longer blow up your account, there is a chance for it to grow.
So if you still have 2000U or 3000U and don’t want to go back, you can calm down and use this method for three months.

No need to chase hot spots, no need to frequently switch currencies, just use position control and rhythm, and that’s enough.

I am Uncle Nan, using the pitfalls I've encountered to help you avoid detours.

#比特币波动性 #Ripple拟建10亿美元XRP储备 $WET $BEAT $arc

#比特币波动性 is considered a warming up, the approximate location starts with 885 and then I don't know.

The rhythm is steady and stable, progressing smoothly, with a short position of 17,000 in crude oil. $BNB #比特币波动性 #山寨季将至？ #美SEC推动加密创新监管