The decline of Bitcoin prices on December 16, 2025, is the result of multiple factors, including macroeconomic policies, institutional actions, market conditions, and external financial environments. The specific reasons are as follows:

1. Diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts: After the Fed's rate cut last week, Powell did not clarify whether to continue cutting rates in January next year. Several officials also signaled that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive. Currently, the market expects a 75.6% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January next year. The failure of easing expectations has caused cryptocurrencies, as a risk asset, to lose liquidity support, leading to significant capital withdrawal.

2. Institutions lower expectations and withdraw funds: Standard Chartered has lowered its Bitcoin price forecast for the end of the year to around $100,000, with next year's target price reduced to $150,000, which is only half of the previous estimate, impacting market confidence. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF under BlackRock has faced six consecutive weeks of net fund outflows, with institutional selling or capital withdrawal causing Bitcoin's rise to lose important funding support.

3. Synchronization with the US stock market weakening: As institutions enter the market through compliant channels like ETFs, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has increased. Before December 16, US stocks opened high but fell, and last Friday, US stocks declined, with its negative impact continuing to ferment. Bitcoin subsequently fell in tandem, further lowering prices.

4. Weak market liquidity and sustained selling pressure: Currently, Bitcoin trading is oscillating within a narrow range, with insufficient market trading interest and low trading volumes, making it difficult to generate effective rebound momentum. This decline is driven by adjustments in spot and derivatives positions, with high-leverage positions largely cleared. The market faces mild but persistent selling pressure and struggles to attract bottom-fishing capital, resulting in a slow downward trend.

5. Geopolitical risks trigger risk aversion: On December 14, the US and Ukraine held closed-door talks on the 'peace plan.' Although they claimed to have made significant progress, no specific details were disclosed. This geopolitical uncertainty has led investors to reduce allocations to risk assets like Bitcoin to avoid risks, turning to safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds, indirectly exacerbating Bitcoin's decline. $BTC #比特币波动性