Marina 洁洋

The cryptocurrency market has experienced several severe crashes throughout its development, often triggered by regulatory policies, hacker attacks, project failures, and other factors. Here are some significant cases with far-reaching impacts:

1. 2014 Mt.Gox incident: At that time, Mt.Gox was the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world, losing nearly 850,000 Bitcoins due to a hacker attack, accounting for 7% of the total Bitcoin supply at that time. This directly led to an 80% drop in Bitcoin's price and triggered a crisis of trust in the cryptocurrency market, making the industry aware of the significant risks of centralized exchanges and giving rise to the subsequent decentralized movement.

2. 2017 94 incident: In that year, ICO projects were rampant, leading to chaos. On September 4, seven ministries in China jointly issued a document defining ICOs as illegal public financing activities. After the policy was introduced, Bitcoin dropped by 32%, Litecoin fell by over 57%, and a large number of exchanges were forced to move overseas, with project parties refunding tokens. However, the market quickly rebounded, and Bitcoin welcomed a super bull market by the end of the year.

3. 2020 312 incident: Affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, panic spread in the global financial markets, with investors selling off Bitcoin in large quantities to cover losses in other assets. From March 12, Bitcoin's maximum drop over two days exceeded 50%, plummeting from over $7,900 to a low of $3,782.13. This incident also shattered the market's fantasy of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.

4. 2022 LUNA/FTX chain collapse: In May, the algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its peg, and the price of the associated LUNA token nearly went to zero, with a market value that collapsed from $40 billion in an instant. In November of the same year, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, collapsed due to the misappropriation of customer funds, triggering a crisis of trust in the market. Bitcoin's price fell from $60,000 at the beginning of the year to a low of $15,000 by the end of the year, a drop of 75%.

5. 2025 10·11 crash: The trigger was Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a sell-off of risk assets. Bitcoin once fell by over 13%, Ethereum plummeted by over 17%, and altcoins fell even more. Public data shows that the liquidation amount reached $19.2 billion in 24 hours, with 1.64 million people liquidated. However, industry practitioners estimate that the actual liquidation scale may reach $30 billion to $40 billion, with some altcoins nearly going to zero in a short period. $BTC $ETH $BNB #巨鲸动向

The price of ETH dropped on December 16, 2025, due to the combined effects of macro policies, market leverage, ecological security, and other factors. The specific reasons are as follows:

1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations were not met: Although the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on December 10, Powell was cautious about the future rate cut path and did not release a clear easing signal, resulting in the market's expectations for liquidity easing not being fulfilled. As a risk asset, ETH lost funding support, and the price fell as market sentiment weakened.

2. High leverage positions led to a chain liquidation: The ETH market has a large number of high-leverage trades, with some traders even using extremely high leverage. When the price experiences a slight pullback, it triggers large long positions to be forcibly liquidated, creating a cycle of "price drop—forced liquidation—accelerated decline," which greatly amplifies the drop.

3. The Ethereum ecosystem suffered a security attack: The yETH product under Yearn Finance was exploited by hackers using a vulnerability, resulting in approximately 1000 ETH being transferred. This incident, as a significant security incident in the Ethereum ecosystem, severely undermined investor confidence, leading to panic selling and causing ETH to rapidly plunge in a short period.

4. Institutional fund outflows intensified selling pressure: Recently, cryptocurrency-related ETFs have seen a net outflow for several consecutive days. Institutions chose to reduce their holdings and exit the market when the market outlook was unclear. Without institutional funding support, the liquidity of the ETH market became increasingly fragile, making it difficult to withstand selling pressure, and the price fell accordingly. $ETH #ETH走势分析

The decline of Bitcoin prices on December 16, 2025, is the result of multiple factors, including macroeconomic policies, institutional actions, market conditions, and external financial environments. The specific reasons are as follows:

1. Diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts: After the Fed's rate cut last week, Powell did not clarify whether to continue cutting rates in January next year. Several officials also signaled that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive. Currently, the market expects a 75.6% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January next year. The failure of easing expectations has caused cryptocurrencies, as a risk asset, to lose liquidity support, leading to significant capital withdrawal.

2. Institutions lower expectations and withdraw funds: Standard Chartered has lowered its Bitcoin price forecast for the end of the year to around $100,000, with next year's target price reduced to $150,000, which is only half of the previous estimate, impacting market confidence. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF under BlackRock has faced six consecutive weeks of net fund outflows, with institutional selling or capital withdrawal causing Bitcoin's rise to lose important funding support.

3. Synchronization with the US stock market weakening: As institutions enter the market through compliant channels like ETFs, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has increased. Before December 16, US stocks opened high but fell, and last Friday, US stocks declined, with its negative impact continuing to ferment. Bitcoin subsequently fell in tandem, further lowering prices.

4. Weak market liquidity and sustained selling pressure: Currently, Bitcoin trading is oscillating within a narrow range, with insufficient market trading interest and low trading volumes, making it difficult to generate effective rebound momentum. This decline is driven by adjustments in spot and derivatives positions, with high-leverage positions largely cleared. The market faces mild but persistent selling pressure and struggles to attract bottom-fishing capital, resulting in a slow downward trend.

5. Geopolitical risks trigger risk aversion: On December 14, the US and Ukraine held closed-door talks on the 'peace plan.' Although they claimed to have made significant progress, no specific details were disclosed. This geopolitical uncertainty has led investors to reduce allocations to risk assets like Bitcoin to avoid risks, turning to safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds, indirectly exacerbating Bitcoin's decline. $BTC #比特币波动性

No talent? Then just repeat!!
Good night💤 Sleep early and wake up early～

How to invest using the movements of cryptocurrency whales?

Investing based on the movements of cryptocurrency whales primarily involves understanding the whales' operational intentions, validating signals with multidimensional data, and adopting suitable strategies to reduce risks. The specific methods are as follows:

1. Accurately interpret the operational intentions of whales: Focus on the behavioral signals corresponding to the flow of funds. If whales transfer a large amount of tokens from cold wallets to exchanges like Binance, it is likely they are preparing to sell, and one can avoid this cryptocurrency in the short term or short it with a light position; if funds are transferred from the exchange to cold wallets, it is often a signal of long-term accumulation, and one should look for subsequent buying opportunities at lower prices. It is also important to distinguish ineffective movements; for example, if a whale transfers assets between its own multiple wallets, this is merely internal reorganization and will not affect market supply and demand, so such news does not require follow-up actions.

2. Combine multiple types of data to cross-validate signals: Decisions cannot rely solely on whale movements. On one hand, combine on-chain indicators, such as using Glassnode to check the number of loss days for a cryptocurrency and the distribution of holdings, to confirm whether whale operations align with the overall holding trends; on the other hand, integrate market data, for example, when a whale increases its holdings in ETH, if the DeFi locked amount of Ethereum rises and rumors of spot ETF approvals are spreading, it can strengthen bullish judgments. Conversely, if the funding rate is abnormal, one should be cautious of short-term volatility.

3. Match suitable investment strategies: For mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, if whales continue to accumulate and the price is stagnant, a dollar-cost averaging approach can be used to gradually build positions, reducing timing risks; when facing high-leverage operations by whales, such as shorting BTC with 40x leverage, one should not follow the trend with heavy bets and can observe opportunities arising from market volatility caused by liquidations with a small position. For altcoins, if whales make large purchases in the short term, one should be wary of the risk of selling after a pump, prioritizing coins with actual application scenarios, and the holding ratio should not be too high.

4. Control timeliness and risk boundaries: The impact of whale movements on the market is often concentrated within 24 - 48 hours, so it is essential to promptly follow signals and set take-profit and stop-loss orders. For instance, if whale activity triggers price volatility and reaches a preset profit margin, one should take profits in a timely manner. It is also important to note that whales may create false signals through fake transfers to manipulate the market; therefore, data should be monitored across multiple platforms, and one should never invest more than their risk tolerance. #巨鲸动向 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

On December 15, 2025, the movements of big whales in the cryptocurrency market focused on leveraged trading, switching positions, and shorting operations in currencies such as ETH, BTC, and ZEC. Some well-known associated whale entities also showed related movements, as detailed below:

1. Whale with long ETH positions trapped in floating losses: Both ETH-related long positions of the whale under CZ's publicly known counterpart are at a loss, including a 15x and 10x leveraged ETH long position in a wallet starting with 0x9eec9, with a position value of approximately $255 million, resulting in a floating loss of $15.71 million; the 20x leveraged ETH long position and 5x leveraged HYPE long position in a wallet starting with 0xbadb have a position value of about $93.65 million, with a floating loss exceeding $4.3 million.

2. Whale shorting ZEC: A certain whale deposited $2.46 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a 3x leveraged short position in ZEC, with ZEC's price dropping 10.32% on the same day.

3. BTC switching to ETH: A certain whale exchanged 340 BTC for 9,784 ETH, with this transaction valued at approximately $30.42 million.

4. "Maji" increases ETH long positions: "Maji" continuously increased their long positions in 300 ETH over the last 3 hours, bringing their 25x Ethereum long position amount to $11.82 million by the end of the day.

5. Small asset scale whale switching positions: A whale holding nearly $3.5 million in assets exchanged 50,000 KTA (valued at $14,000) for 320,120 EDEL. #巨鲸动向 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

$ETH #加密市场观察
The market trend of Ethereum today is extremely critical, which means that the fluctuation after rebounding to around $3100 from a low of $3023 in the early hours of December 15 is very important for whether it can hold the key support level and set the tone for the short-term trend. My view is that if it can close steadily above $3130 today, and ideally break through the $3170 resistance level on the four-hour chart, then its rebound will come quickly. I see it likely challenging the upper Bollinger band position of $3317 on the daily chart. If it closes below the key psychological level of $3000, then a new round of correction for Ethereum will likely begin, and it may further drop to the lower Bollinger band position of $2835 on the daily chart.

In summary, the next few days are crucial for Ethereum. After this wave of fluctuation adjustment today, it will have to choose a clear direction and enter a phase of slightly accelerated movement, either breaking upwards or correcting downwards. If it can stand firm at $3130 and break through the $3170 resistance, along with continuous accumulation by whales and a reversal of ETF fund outflows, then it will continue to push upwards and will not be stuck in the current low volatility range. If it breaks below the $3000 support, coupled with further cooling expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and regulatory policies signaling negative news, then it will likely continue to test lower levels and struggle to maintain its current relative strength against Bitcoin.

What impact will the Fed's interest rate cut have on the cryptocurrency market?

The impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on the cryptocurrency market is not simply a positive one. It often presents a complex picture due to market expectations and policy factors, as detailed below:

1. Theoretically, it benefits liquidity and valuation: Interest rate cuts reduce the cost of borrowing dollars, typically increasing market liquidity and lowering the opportunity cost of holding risky assets like cryptocurrencies with no fixed income. Historically, for example, when the Fed cut interest rates to near zero in 2020, it propelled Bitcoin from $5,000 to $69,000 by the end of 2021; the expectation of an interest rate cut by the end of 2025 also led to a 12% increase in Bitcoin's open interest and increased participation in the futures market.

2. In practice, the positive effects may be fully priced in, causing volatility: If the interest rate cut is in line with market expectations, the positive effects have already been priced into the price. The actual implementation of the cut may trigger profit-taking by investors. For example, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, Bitcoin briefly surged before falling from $94,500 to around $92,000. Within 24 hours, over $300 million in contracts were liquidated across the entire network, affecting 114,600 investors. Furthermore, if the Fed releases hawkish signals at the time of the rate cut, suggesting that inflation has not ended and that future rate cuts may cease, it could lead to a short-term peak in cryptocurrencies.

3. The positive effects may be offset by other policy shocks: Currently, global monetary policies are interconnected, which can weaken the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut. For instance, if the Fed cuts rates at the end of 2025 while Japan raises rates, investors who previously used the low-interest yen to buy cryptocurrencies will be forced to sell assets to repay debts due to increased borrowing costs. This capital outflow will cause a sharp drop in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, making it difficult for the increased liquidity from the Fed's rate cut to offset the market volatility caused by this capital outflow.

4. Increased Currency Divergence: When interest rate cuts are coupled with liquidity fluctuations, Bitcoin, with its hedging properties as "digital gold," is easily seen by institutions as a buy-on-dips target, even when impacted. Altcoins, due to their poor liquidity and high speculative nature, see funds withdraw first, and their declines during market turmoil are often far greater than Bitcoin's, further widening the gap in their price movements. $ETH #美联储降息

On December 15, 2025, Bitcoin's market price fell sharply, triggering a large-scale liquidation. The details are as follows:

1. Real-time price trend: Bitcoin continued to decline throughout the day, once breaking below the $88,000 mark, with a minimum drop to below $87,550; as of around 10 a.m. that day, the price slightly rebounded, with CME Bitcoin futures reported at $89,631.8, down 0.89%, and the spot price hovered around $89,000.

2. Market liquidation situation: In the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidations in the cryptocurrency contracts reached $270 million, with more than 115,700 people liquidated, among which long positions were severely impacted, highlighting the strong bearish sentiment in the market.

3. Influencing factors: The main reason for this decline is the sharp cooling of expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which reversed market risk appetite, causing funds to flow out of high-risk assets like Bitcoin; at the same time, institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank significantly lowered their Bitcoin price targets, further undermining market confidence.

4. Subsequent technical outlook: Bitcoin has now broken below the lower edge of the consolidation range for nearly three weeks, with short-term technical structures damaged. $89,000 and $90,400 have become strong resistance levels for a rebound, while the next key support area is around $85,000. If this level is lost, it may trigger deeper selling.
$BTC #美联储降息

Hahaha 😂 They all say the overall environment is not good, but it turns out I am that overall environment

💕Happy weekend, what is everyone busy with?
A photo to prove that you are a person who loves life🍵

Why is the Bitcoin price fluctuating within a narrow range?

On December 14, 2025, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating within a narrow range, the result of multiple factors such as macro policy digestion, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and the market waiting for key events. The specific reasons are as follows:

1. The benefits of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been digested: This week, the Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year, but this policy had already been anticipated by the market. After the announcement, Bitcoin only experienced a brief surge before quickly falling back, leading to a "buy on expectations, sell on facts" scenario. Moreover, there is significant disagreement within the Fed regarding future policy paths, suggesting a higher threshold for future rate cuts, leaving the market lacking new macro favorable catalysts to drive a unilateral price trend.

2. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears is in a stalemate: On one hand, "whale" addresses holding 10 - 10000 BTC began to buy again after the end of November; on the other hand, demand for spot Bitcoin is weak, with significant slowdowns in fund inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs and even some days of net outflows, leading to a cautious institutional attitude. At the same time, there is strong resistance in the $93,000 - $94,000 range, with multiple attempts to break through failing, while support exists in the $88,000 - $89,000 area, resulting in intense competition between bulls and bears within this range that is hard to break through.

3. The market is waiting for the Bank of Japan's policy decision: The market is closely watching the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18 - 19, with widespread expectations that it may end its ultra-loose policy and start raising interest rates. If rate hikes are implemented, it could lead to a return of international funds and adjustments in asset allocation, affecting Bitcoin. Prior to this, investors are generally maintaining a wait-and-see attitude and are reluctant to trade heavily, which has caused the Bitcoin price to be trapped in narrow fluctuations. $BTC #美联储降息

On December 14, 2025, Bitcoin is in a narrow range of fluctuations, with the specific market conditions as follows:

1. Price Performance: As of around 4 PM on that day, the Bitcoin price fluctuated between $90,000 and $91,000, with CoinCodex data showing its price at $90,199, a slight decrease of 0.16% over the past 24 hours. Previously, it briefly surged to $92,000 before retreating, currently regaining the key $90,000 position.

2. Key Price Levels: There is strong resistance in the range of $94,150 to $94,236 above; the primary support level below is the psychological $90,000 mark, and if broken, it may drop to the $85,900 to $86,300 range.

3. Market and Technical Signals: Market liquidity is declining, and traders are mostly in a wait-and-see attitude. Technical indicators show divergence, with the daily MACD indicating a bullish signal, but the RSI has not broken the 50 midline, while the 4-hour chart has formed a "double top" pattern, with short-term bears in control and upward momentum weakening. $BTC #美联储降息

Can $BTC reach 1 million US dollars?💸

BTC heading towards 1 million US dollars:
Not a fantasy, but an inevitability driven by fundamentals

When the speculation that BTC will reach 1 million US dollars is mentioned, most people see it as nonsense. However, peeling away the hype reveals that the underlying logic of scarcity, the influx of institutional funds, and the upgrade of asset attributes are making this goal increasingly persuasive.

The core supporting this prediction is its irreplaceable scarcity. The total supply of BTC is fixed at 21 million coins, and 93% of it has already been mined. After the fifth halving in 2028, the daily new supply will only be 225 coins, accounting for less than 0.1% of the current daily trading volume, which is far scarcer than gold. With a total market value of 21.7 trillion US dollars, if BTC takes on part of the store of value demand in the future, it is mathematically reasonable to deduce that the price will surpass 1 million US dollars based on the current circulating supply.

The continuous influx of institutional funds provides the key impetus. Global listed companies have cumulatively held nearly 900,000 BTC, with companies like American Bitcoin and ProCap Financial accelerating their accumulation, incorporating it into their balance sheet optimization strategies. The scale of the US spot BTC ETF has surpassed 82 billion US dollars, and traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have entered the market, transforming BTC from a “speculative target” to an “institutional allocation asset.” This structural buying is far more stable than retail funds.

The macro environment and the upgrade of asset attributes further solidify the foundation. Under global inflationary pressures and the risk of fiat currency devaluation, BTC's positioning as “digital gold” has gained widespread recognition, with some countries even exploring its inclusion in strategic reserves. Meanwhile, technological innovations such as the Lightning Network and Layer 2 scaling have enhanced its practicality, and the gradual clarification of regulatory frameworks has reduced compliance risks, encouraging long-term funds to invest heavily.

Of course, the road to 1 million US dollars will not be smooth sailing; regulatory fluctuations and reversals in market sentiment may still trigger short-term corrections. However, from the perspectives of scarcity, liquidity, and the evolution of asset value, this is not an unreachable speculative goal but a high-probability event in the maturation process of crypto assets, and a rational pricing of “digital scarcity” by long-term value investors.

6