⛏ Cryptocurrency Archaeology | Bitcoin Halving: A "Supply Shock" Occurring Every Four Years, But Don't Seek the Sword by the Boat
The most important "underlying event" of Bitcoin,
is not favorable news, nor policy,
but — Halving.
🔁 What is Bitcoin Halving?
📌 Rules written in code:
Every 210,000 blocks
Block reward halves once
Approximately occurs every 4 years
⛏ Review of reward changes:
2009: 50 BTC
2012: 25 BTC
2016: 12.5 BTC
2020: 6.25 BTC
2024: 3.125 BTC
👉 New coin production continues to decline, scarcity is constantly reinforced.
📈 Historical trends: Does it really "drop before halving, rise after halving"?
Historically, there is indeed a highly similar rhythm:
⏳ Before Halving
The market speculates in advance
Leverage accumulates, emotions run high
Often results in corrections, fluctuations, and even deep washouts
🔥 After Halving
Supply decrease begins to "take effect"
Funds gradually flow back
Bull markets often unfold from a few months to a year later
📌 The key is not whether it rises on the day, but the long-term change in supply-demand structure.
⚠️ But please remember: Don't seek the sword by the boat
① The market is no longer the market of yesteryear
ETFs, institutional funds, macro liquidity
All affect the rhythm and magnitude after halving
② Historical similarity ≠ inevitable repetition
Halving is a long-term favorable event
But short-term fluctuations depend on emotions and funds
③ The biggest risk comes from "uniform expectations"
Everyone is waiting for the same script
That is often where the risk lies
🧠 Correctly understanding halving ❌ Treating halving as a "precise buying and selling point"
✅ Treating halving as a time anchor for long-term narratives Halving is not a button, Pressing it does not instantly raise prices; Instead, it slowly tightens the supply faucet.
🕯 A message for ordinary investors Halving is not a password for getting rich, But a proof that time stands on the side of long-term holders.
Those who truly survive bull and bear markets, Are never the ones "guessing the day of halving", But those who understand the rules, respect the cycles, and control risks.
⚙️ Macroeconomic events, how do they cut into the crypto world? The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike
Many people think: 👉 Interest rate hikes are a traditional finance matter 👉 They have no direct relationship with Bitcoin
This is a typical underestimation.
1. The real transmission path: not emotions, but capital Macroeconomic events affect the crypto market through only two hard channels: 1️⃣ Global capital flow 2️⃣ Market risk appetite
The Bank of Japan happens to be at the intersection of these two channels.
🔁 Core mechanism: Yen carry trade
Long-term logic: Borrow yen at low interest rates → Exchange for dollars → Buy BTC / US stocks / risk assets Once the Bank of Japan raises interest rates: Yen appreciates Borrowing costs rise Arbitrage models fail
👉 The result is only one: Sell BTC → Exchange for yen → Repay debts This is not "bearish on Bitcoin," but a forced liquidation of capital behavior.
2. Why is this time more dangerous?
Because the market itself is already extremely fragile: Exchange reserves: at a cyclical low Market liquidity: extremely thin Contract leverage ratio: operating at a high level 📉 Any macro disturbance will be amplified into a chain liquidation.
Data has verified: 👉 Since 2024 👉 After the Bank of Japan's first three interest rate hikes 👉 BTC has retraced more than 20% each time This is not a coincidence, it is a structural problem.
🛡️ During macro-sensitive periods, the only correct risk control mindset There are only two keywords: Survival + Anti-fragility
1️⃣ Position & leverage (first priority) Contract leverage: ≤3 times, or liquidate directly Spot position: reduce to a level where you can sleep peacefully 👉 Cash is not a missed opportunity, it's an option.
2️⃣ Hard stop loss (unconditional) Every position must have a stop loss (-8% to -15%) Execute with conditional orders, do not leave it to emotions
3️⃣ Watch more, act less Before macro events materialize, doing nothing is the optimal solution Wait until direction + sentiment are clear before taking action
4️⃣ Psychological management During macro cycles: technical analysis gives way, narratives fail Reject FOMO Reject "the more it falls, the more I want to catch the bottom"
💎 A core summary in one sentence Short-term dominant force: Global liquidity (Bank of Japan tightening vs Federal Reserve expectations) Operational priority: Risk control > Profit > Judgment of right or wrong
Long-term perspective (limited to spot): The deep declines caused by macro shocks, Are the source of disciplined dollar-cost averaging 👉 Premise: no leverage $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察
🧨 Cryptocurrency Archeology | FTX Collapse: Overnight, a top exchange turned into a financial wasteland
November 2022 Not a black swan, but a meticulously packaged collapse of trust.
FTX's bankruptcy directly ended the illusion of an era: "Big exchanges = safe"
🏦 How strong was FTX? 🔹 The second largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world 🔹 Founder SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried) 🔹 Persona tags: "Cryptocurrency Buffett" Wall Street elite Regulatory-friendly representative
📈 Peak data: Valuation of $32 billion Investors included Sequoia, SoftBank, Temasek Sponsored NBA arenas, political endorsements, mainstream media backing
📌 The consensus in the market at that time was: FTX was one of the most "compliant and robust" exchanges in the crypto world.
💣 How was the explosion triggered? 1️⃣ A report tore away the veil Media exposure: 👉 Alameda's balance sheet largely consisted of FTT 👉 Liquidity severely relied on "self-made tokens"
2️⃣ Trust evaporated in an instant Users began to withdraw en masse The exchange's cash flow broke down A bank run occurred
3️⃣ The deadly truth was revealed Customer assets were misappropriated Used to cover Alameda's margin calls, speculation, and survival No isolation, no risk control, no bottom line
📉 Within days: FTT went to zero FTX announced bankruptcy Industry-wide trust collapsed completely
🔗 How severe were the consequences? Over $8 billion user fund gap Millions of users' assets frozen Countless projects, funds, and retail investors dragged down in a chain reaction The crypto market entered a "deep freeze"
👮 SBF was arrested: Multiple charges of financial fraud, money laundering, and asset misappropriation From "genius boy" to "prisoner"
🧠 The 5 iron laws left by FTX ① Exchanges are not banks Putting assets on an exchange is essentially "unsecured borrowing"
② Endorsement ≠ Risk control Top-tier VC + political endorsements cannot replace audits and transparency
③ Platform tokens = maximum risk exposure The platform issues its own tokens Collateralizes itself, sets its own prices 👉 Once out of control, it's a nuclear bomb
④ Compliance persona may be the biggest disguise Will say "regulatory-friendly" Does not mean they won't do harm
⑤ Do not blindly trust "centralized security" True security 👉 is in your own hands
🕯 In conclusion LUNA collapsed due to its mechanism, FTX collapsed due to human nature. This is not a technical failure, but an inevitable result of power + greed + lack of oversight. $BTC $BTC #巨鲸动向
💰 Bull market means making a profit ≠ Money actually arrives in your pocket
The withdrawal step is the easiest place to fail in the crypto world. Many people focus only on the market but overlook a fact: 👉 Withdrawal failures mean profits equal zero.
Today, we're not teaching “tricky operations”, only discussing underlying logic + risk awareness. For beginners, at least avoid 80% of the pitfalls after reading.
1. First, recognize the reality: Why do “withdrawals” encounter problems?
It’s not just you who is unlucky, but because: During a bull market, the flow of funds is unusually concentrated. The risk control levels of banks and payment institutions are raised simultaneously. On-chain funds + off-exchange channels are inherently high-sensitivity behaviors.
📌 The conclusion is simple: In a bull market, any large amount of fund flow will be closely monitored.
2. Platforms and channels: Don’t be greedy for speed; stability is more important than efficiency. Prioritize platforms with clear rules and transparent processes. Don’t be tempted by phrases like “instant arrival”, “internal channel”, or “connections”. Processes that can be completed step by step, over time, are often safer than a one-time completion. 👉 Truly reliable channels never prove themselves through mere words.
3. The core of fund management is not skill; it’s “acting like a normal person”. Many problems arise not from large amounts, but from unnatural behaviors: Sudden funds actions that mismatch past patterns. Complex fund circulation paths with unclear logic. Abnormal concentration of operation frequency and timing.
📌 The risk control system doesn’t care if you’re a crypto player, it only looks at whether you “look like a normal account”.
4. Common misconceptions (one misstep could cause issues) ❌ Treating “experience posts” as universal formulas. ❌ Believing that so-called “test operations are definitely safe”. ❌ Thinking “this little money doesn't attract attention”. ❌ Betting all risks on a single operation.
People who fail in a bull market 99% don’t lack market understanding, but underestimate the existence of rules.
5. True veterans understand one thing: Making money depends on ability, keeping money depends on respect. Not challenging the rules, not opposing the system, not treating luck as a strategy. 📌 Those who can survive long in the market are never the most aggressive.
🔔 One last truth: Withdrawals are not a technical task, but the final checkpoint of risk management. The market gives you opportunities, but rules determine whether you can keep the money. Making 100,000 in a bull market is ability, safely securing it is the real skill $BTC $BTC $ETH #巨鲸动向 #迷因币ETF
🕯 Cryptocurrency Archaeology | The 519 Massacre: The DeFi Myth Vaporized in One Night
May 19, 2021
Following March 12, the cryptocurrency world welcomed another day etched into its DNA —
The 519 Massacre
📉 How bad was that day? BTC plummeted about 30% in a single day, from above $40,000, lowest dipping to around $30,000.
But the true disaster zone wasn't BTC — but👇 💥 Altcoins & DeFi Mainstream altcoins generally started their crashes.
DeFi projects that entered at peak prices 👉 fell 50%–80% in one day. The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi was halved directly.
📌 Market summary in one sentence: The day before, people were mining and earning interest; the next day, even the principal was gone.
🔥 The three triggers that ignited the 519 1️⃣ Policy heavyweights came down Multiple Chinese departments reiterated "Crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading activities" Market panic over "full withdrawal" spread rapidly.
2️⃣ High-level bubbles accumulated DeFi, NFT, and MEME crazily expanded. Countless projects 👉 had no products, no cash flow, relying entirely on expectations.
3️⃣ Contract leverage spiraled out of control again Long positions were highly concentrated. Once the price dropped, 👉 forced liquidations started a chain reaction, 👉 leading to direct crashes.
💣 What happened that night? Hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidations across the entire network.
Multiple exchanges 👉 experienced delays / price spikes / inability to liquidate. Liquidity dried up, panic emotions spiraled out of control.
📌 Many people did not "lose money,"
but were forcibly liquidated out by the system.
🧠 The three iron laws left by 519
① In a bull market, risk often hides in "certainty." When everyone thinks it "will only rise," the danger has already started its countdown.
② DeFi ≠ risk-free printing machine. The essence of high APY 👉 is high volatility + high leverage. TVL can be halved in a day, but faith cannot.
③ Policy is always the biggest variable. You can calculate the model, yet cannot predict where the policy will land.
🌱 What happened next? After 519,
👉 the market entered a long-term oscillation + the prelude to a bear market.
Many DeFi projects
👉 never returned to their peaks.
Countless people realized for the first time:
A bull market can also "kill."
🧾 A message for future generations: March 12 taught us to respect leverage, May 19 taught us to respect bull markets.
The true watershed in the cryptocurrency world has never been bulls vs. bears,
but👇 whether you managed to preserve your principal amidst the chaos. 🕯 In memory of 519.#中美贸易谈判 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH
📌 Serialization III|Where is the real opportunity after Japan's interest rate hike? 🇯🇵 The real opportunity often appears after 'everyone has finished criticizing'. When the interest rate hike becomes a thing of the past, the market's focus will return to—funding structure and trends themselves. 🛡 After the interest rate hike, the market will start to differentiate. Weak altcoins → continue to be eliminated. High-leverage players → exit. BTC / ETH → will be the first to complete the turnover. 📌 The proportion of stablecoins is rising, indicating that funds are waiting for direction, rather than fleeing the market. 📊 BTC / ETH Mid-term scenario simulation (after interest rate hike) BTC: Core range: $84,000 – $90,000 Trend judgment: Range oscillation → accumulation Volume stabilizes at 90K → new trend starting point ETH: Core range: $4,100 – $4,600 Trend judgment: ETH often starts later than BTC Once it catches up, the elasticity is greater. 🧠 Final conclusion The interest rate hike is not the end, but a reshuffle. What gets washed away is emotion, what remains is structure, what is rewarded is patience. The real market, usually starts when 'no one dares to heavily invest'. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This article represents personal macro views and scenario simulations, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, please assess the risks yourself. $BTC $ETH #代币化热潮 #加密市场观察