⛏ Cryptocurrency Archaeology | Bitcoin Halving: A "Supply Shock" Occurring Every Four Years, But Don't Seek the Sword by the Boat

The most important "underlying event" of Bitcoin,

is not favorable news, nor policy,

but — Halving.

🔁 What is Bitcoin Halving?

📌 Rules written in code:

Every 210,000 blocks

Block reward halves once

Approximately occurs every 4 years

⛏ Review of reward changes:

2009: 50 BTC

2012: 25 BTC

2016: 12.5 BTC

2020: 6.25 BTC

2024: 3.125 BTC

👉 New coin production continues to decline, scarcity is constantly reinforced.

📈 Historical trends: Does it really "drop before halving, rise after halving"?

Historically, there is indeed a highly similar rhythm:

⏳ Before Halving

The market speculates in advance

Leverage accumulates, emotions run high

Often results in corrections, fluctuations, and even deep washouts

🔥 After Halving

Supply decrease begins to "take effect"

Funds gradually flow back

Bull markets often unfold from a few months to a year later

📌 The key is not whether it rises on the day, but the long-term change in supply-demand structure.

⚠️ But please remember: Don't seek the sword by the boat

① The market is no longer the market of yesteryear

ETFs, institutional funds, macro liquidity

All affect the rhythm and magnitude after halving

② Historical similarity ≠ inevitable repetition

Halving is a long-term favorable event

But short-term fluctuations depend on emotions and funds

③ The biggest risk comes from "uniform expectations"

Everyone is waiting for the same script

That is often where the risk lies

🧠 Correctly understanding halving

❌ Treating halving as a "precise buying and selling point"

✅ Treating halving as a time anchor for long-term narratives

Halving is not a button,

Pressing it does not instantly raise prices;

Instead, it slowly tightens the supply faucet.

🕯 A message for ordinary investors

Halving is not a password for getting rich,

But a proof that time stands on the side of long-term holders.

Those who truly survive bull and bear markets,

Are never the ones "guessing the day of halving",

But those who understand the rules, respect the cycles, and control risks.

⛏ Understand halving, don't blindly believe in halving. $BTC $ETH #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 $