Short-term return to normal, medium to long-term trend is clearly discernible.

Recently, Bitcoin quickly dropped to 80600, short-term panic sentiment has been completely released, and the short-term trend has returned to a normal state. Under normal market conditions, technical analysis can effectively predict short-term trends; however, during extreme panic, greed, or violent fluctuations, emotions dominate the market, leading to distortion in technical analysis and increased difficulty in judgment. Currently, the 1-hour level rebound has been realized, and we can wait for the 4-hour level rebound.

Bitcoin medium to long-term

The weekly level has likely started a downward trend, lasting no less than four to five months, with the first target at 70,000-73,000. If it breaks below 70,000, we will look at 62,000, and the subsequent upward target aims directly at 150,000+.

The definition of bull and bear markets is subjective: from the perspective of the weekly level, multiple rounds of bulls and bears have been experienced since 15400, and we may currently face a bear market lasting from six months to one year, with a possibility of hitting new highs in the second half of 2026; in the monthly level dimension, it is still in a slow bull market, and the weekly decline is merely a significant correction. In fact, bulls and bears are not crucial; during the bull run of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2025, most altcoins remained in a bear market, and both upward and downward trends present opportunities, making future boundaries more ambiguous.

The daily level is currently in the first wave of daily declines within the weekly decline, expected to end in mid-December, with a support range of 74,500-79,000, which is unlikely to break below 74,500. From mid-December to the end of January, we will see a rebound of 20,000-25,000 USD, targeting 97,000-103,000, and it may even test 110,000; from February to May, there is a high probability of another daily decline, with a focus on the 70,000 support.

Short cycle and Ethereum trends

The 4-hour level is still in a downward phase, with a rebound expected in the second half of this week to mid-next week to 92,000-96,000, after which a new wave of decline will begin. The 1-hour level rebound has not clearly ended, and a 15-minute level correction has begun, likely to retest 88,200 before completing the 1-hour rebound. Regardless of whether the 1-hour correction makes a new low, opportunities for long positions can be found after the retest.

Ethereum synchronizes with Bitcoin's trend: daily support at 2100-2450, with subsequent 2-month rebound targets of 3500-4000, and after another drop, it may surge to 10,000 USD; the 4-hour decline is nearing its end, and after a retest of 2500-2600, it will rebound to 3000-3400; after the 15-minute level correction, it is likely to surge to 2900 before ending the 1-hour rebound.

Trend overview

- Weekly/Daily/4-hour levels: Direction down, daily decline not yet finished

- 1-hour level: Direction up, rebound may continue

- 15-minute level: Direction down, focus on the strength of the correction $BTC $ETH #鲍威尔发言