$BTC @Crypto_1986

Currently, Mi Ge has been focusing on a viewpoint [sick][sick]

BTC/USDT is experiencing a short-term rebound. Technically, this rebound may test and break a trend line, namely the "lower high" trend line, which has been observed in all previous bear market cycles.

This trend line is reflected during all periodic adjustments and essentially serves as a natural resistance level during bear market cycles. Essentially, the overall structure of each bear market cycle is similar, presenting a pivotal trend line that is either the previous high or a support level. Once breached, the market will continue to sell off strongly until it reaches the bottom of the cycle. In the first two cycles since 2014, the bottoms were at the January moving average (MA50, blue trend line), while the last cycle was near the January moving average (MA100, green trend line).

Currently, the market is nearly reaching this turning point. If there is a short-term rebound and it is rejected at the lower high trend line, the second phase may start before February 2026.

It is also worth noting that the similar low structure of the 1W Relative Strength Index (RSI) that appeared during the bear market cycle indicates a bearish divergence signal, suggesting that the top of the bull market cycle is approaching.

Based on all the above conditions, it is not surprising that a bottom is found near or above the 100-day moving average (MA100), although it is the ideal point of technical formation after the price breaks below around 60000.

So, do you think the structure of the bear market cycles from previous years will appear again?