米哥_1986

@Crypto_1986
Today's market panic index on 12.17 is 16, indicating extreme panic.
Yesterday's market panic index on 12.16 was 11, indicating extreme panic.
The Bitcoin long-short ratio is 68.5%, and the Ethereum long-short ratio is 72.1%.
After a retracement, the current data for Bitcoin has decreased, and it is temporarily in a sideways phase after adjustment. In terms of liquidation distribution, most positions still remain above waiting to be liquidated, with the pain point price for Bitcoin around 93000, and for Ethereum around 3285. However, in the short term, Ethereum around 2850 is closer to the current price, making liquidation easier. As a speculative short-term opportunity, there are still chances in the spot market; on other fronts, it’s best to completely ignore weak small-cap coins. $BTC $ETH

Bitcoin dropped by 26% in three months, but performed better than most cryptocurrency sectors, with Ethereum down 36%, AI tokens down 48%, and meme coins down 56%. $BTC $ETH

@Crypto_1986
Today, the market fear index is 11, extreme fear
Yesterday, the market fear index was 16, extreme fear
The Bitcoin long-short ratio is 74.6%, the Ethereum long-short ratio is 74.4%
After a series of continuous fluctuations recently, a certain inertia has been developed. After a weak rebound last night, it did not recover again, and directly continued to fluctuate downwards at night. Currently, the long-short ratio data is all above 74%, indicating a serious imbalance, suggesting that it is mostly bullish. Although the liquidation volume is not much compared to before, it has shown several times increase compared to recently. Overall, the volume of long liquidations is slightly easier than that of short liquidations. The liquidation heatmap distribution has formed an opposite distribution again compared to yesterday, and most of the pending liquidations are currently located above. In terms of spot trading, there are short-term opportunities, and nothing else is being considered for now. #加密市场观察 $BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.15 Market Panic Index 16, Extreme Panic
Yesterday 12.14 Market Panic Index 21, Extreme Panic
Bitcoin Long-Short Ratio 71.6%, Ethereum Long-Short Ratio 68.4%
Even after the entire weekend, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in a sideways phase. The long-short ratio has increased, and there were signs of a pullback starting last night, with a large number of contracts waiting to be broken. However, during the actual pullback, most participants still exit with stop-losses, and liquidations are quite rare. Even when the market reaches extreme panic, the impact is only on trading volume, which is at a low point, with not much trading participation, and sideways movement shows little fluctuation. This morning's pullback coupled with a rapid surge has significantly increased the number of contracts waiting to be broken above, while the contracts below are minimal. In terms of spot trading, after this morning's fluctuations, opportunities have greatly increased. $BTC #加密市场观察

@Crypto_1986
今日12.12市场恐慌指数29，恐慌
昨日12.11市场恐慌指数26，恐慌
大饼多空比62.3%，以太多空比63.1%
数据上大饼的数据基本保持不变，以太多空比回到和大饼持平，晚间再次拉涨，但爆仓量还是偏低。合约上，和昨日基本一致，下方的堆积量远大于上方的堆积量，因此下探带来的爆仓量要远大于上涨，但如果缓慢回调，预期还是会有止损的触发，因此会远低于预期。现货机会依旧存在，短线为主。$BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today on 12.11, the market fear index is 29, fear
Yesterday on 12.10, the market fear index was 26, fear
The Bitcoin long-short ratio is 62.8%, the Ethereum long-short ratio is 53.9%
Data shows that the Bitcoin data remains basically unchanged, while the Ethereum long-short ratio has decreased, indicating a temporary bearish trend, but the liquidation volume is still very low. In terms of contracts, due to the slow increase, a two-tier differentiation has appeared again, with the accumulated shorts below now far exceeding the longs above. If a targeted liquidation occurs, the liquidation volume on the downside will far exceed the increase. In the spot market, short-term opportunities still exist. In terms of market news, it remains very chaotic, please evaluate separately. #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today, on 12.10, the market fear index is 26, fear
Yesterday, on 12.09, the market fear index was 22, extreme fear
Bitcoin long-short ratio is 61.2%, Ethereum long-short ratio is 54.1%
Last night, the Bitcoin and Ethereum data long-short ratio dropped sharply, both welcoming a surge, with the peak point for Bitcoin around 94588 and Ethereum around 3397, accompanied by a certain amount of volume. Regarding contracts, compared to past fluctuations, the liquidation volume is very low, still adopting a strategy of only surging without liquidation. After this surge, the clearing distribution chart began to show a situation of a 50-50 split, with long and short positions basically in balance. In spot trading, there are still short-term opportunities, with no clear signals to terminate. $BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.09 market fear index 22, extreme fear
Yesterday 12.08 market fear index 20, extreme fear
Bitcoin long-short ratio 67.5%, Ethereum long-short ratio 65.3%
Data hasn’t changed much, overall market volume is rapidly shrinking, so even slightly larger trades can easily lead to significant fluctuations. In short-term contracts, it’s at a fifty-fifty position, meaning the up and down fluctuations are about the same. On the weekly level, the concentration of short liquidation is starting to exceed that of longs. In the spot market, short-term opportunities still exist. With the Spring Festival approaching, many are bullish, and talks of 120,000 Bitcoins by the end of the year and 200,000 Bitcoins by 2026 are still active; make your own judgments, do your own trading, others' opinions are just that, and will bear no responsibility; your trading is what counts. $BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.08 Market Fear Index 20, Extreme Fear
Yesterday 12.07 Market Fear Index 20, Extreme Fear
Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio 67.6%, Ethereum Long/Short Ratio 67.9%
After the weekend, the Bitcoin and Ethereum Long/Short Ratio data increased, with Bitcoin's volatility over 4% at night and Ethereum's over 8%. Even with such large fluctuations, compared to before, the liquidation volume is basically very low. The reasons boil down to two situations: one is the triggering of stop-loss orders, no longer holding positions until liquidation. The other is the sharp reduction in the number of market leverage and trading volume. However, from the liquidation map, it can be seen that if stop-loss orders are not set, even slight fluctuations of a few points can lead to significant liquidation levels that should not be underestimated. It is highly likely that this is due to a large number of stop-loss settings currently in place. The spot market is still offering short-term opportunities. $BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.05 Market Fear Index 28, Fear
Yesterday 12.04 Market Fear Index 26, Fear
Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio 59.2%, Ethereum Long/Short Ratio 61.2%
Current data is still normal, although there was a spike in the evening, it was quickly retracted. The upcoming concentration areas for Bitcoin and Ethereum are above 94000 and above 3230, respectively. There is a high probability that there were high leverage short positions taken at yesterday's peak. Overall, the market is relatively balanced in terms of long and short positions, with no extreme situations. Maintaining the premise is beneficial for continuing the rebound and price increase, and real-time data changes should be closely monitored. $BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.04 market fear index 28, panic
Yesterday 12.03 market fear index 28, panic
Bitcoin long-short ratio 58.7%, Ethereum long-short ratio 62.1%
Currently, all data is normal, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been continuously rising without pressure. One point to note is that it has repeatedly risen to multiple areas of concentrated short liquidations, but there has been no large-scale liquidation. On one hand, this rise has been very stable, with no sharp spikes or drops, providing opportunities for short positions to set stop losses. On the other hand, there has been no speculation in long positions, and the entire market has surprisingly seen operations primarily in spot trading. Nothing more to say, this rebound can be summarized as just rising without liquidations. $BTC $ETH $XRP

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.03 market fear index 28, fear
Yesterday 12.02 market fear index 23, extreme fear
Bitcoin long-short ratio 59.8%, Ethereum long-short ratio 63.8%
After a day of sideways movement yesterday, the evening saw a rise, with Bitcoin currently above 92000 and Ethereum above 3000. According to the data, the concentrated liquidation points for short positions are very close, but there has been no breakthrough in that vicinity, so there haven't been many liquidations. Even with Ethereum just a couple of tens of dollars away, it has not broken through. The long-short ratio is gradually decreasing, indicating that long positions are being gradually liquidated or short positions are gradually increasing. In terms of spot trading, there are still short-term opportunities, and leverage has mostly been focused on ultra-short opportunities recently. $BTC $ETH $XRP

The pancake ether, a rare increase of a few points is a concentrated major artery! $BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.02 market fear index 23, extreme fear
Yesterday 12.01 market fear index 24, extreme fear
Bitcoin long-short ratio 67.8%, Ethereum long-short ratio 71.5%
After a slight drop yesterday, the current data is still bearish, the imbalance remains primarily with Ethereum, continuing to explore new lows at night, with liquidation mainly on long positions. Currently, in terms of funding rates, there are some discrepancies between exchanges for Bitcoin and Ethereum, mainly referencing Binance, where Bitcoin is negative and Ethereum is positive. The liquidation concentration for Bitcoin is 87000 and 83600, while for Ethereum it is 2850 and 2713, both sides do not need significant fluctuations to liquidate over 500 million USD. Short-term opportunities still exist, and those with time to monitor can speculate. $BTC $ETH $XRP

December, the last exciting month of 2025! #加密市场观察

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.01 market fear index 24, extreme fear
Yesterday 11.30 market fear index 28, fear
Bitcoin long-short ratio 64.5%, Ethereum long-short ratio 69.4%
December new beginnings, a direct door shutdown caused a small plunge, Ethereum maximum drawdown around 7.17%, Bitcoin drawdown around 5.32%, once again liquidating long positions. Yesterday Bitcoin funding rate was negative, indeed bringing some rising volume, but the resistance level is far from being reached, today data changes again, Ethereum's long-short ratio increased the most while the decline was also the largest. As the last month of 2025, I still hold the old view, only for short-term speculation, the cyclical bottoming has not yet arrived. $BTC

@Crypto_1986
Today 12.01 market fear index 24, extreme fear
Yesterday 11.30 market fear index 28, fear
Bitcoin long-short ratio 64.5%, Ethereum long-short ratio 69.4%
December is a new beginning, directly closing the door and causing a small drop, with Ethereum's maximum drawdown around 7.17%, Bitcoin's drawdown around 5.32%, once again liquidating long positions. Yesterday, Bitcoin's funding rate was negative, indeed bringing some upward volume, but the resistance level has not yet been reached. Today's data is changing again, with Ethereum's long-short ratio rising the most while also experiencing the largest decline. As the last month of 2025, I still hold the old view, only engaging in short-term speculation, the cyclical bottoming has not yet arrived. $BTC $ETH $XRP

$BTC @Crypto_1986
Currently, Mi Ge has been focusing on a viewpoint [sick][sick]
BTC/USDT is experiencing a short-term rebound. Technically, this rebound may test and break a trend line, namely the "lower high" trend line, which has been observed in all previous bear market cycles.
This trend line is reflected during all periodic adjustments and essentially serves as a natural resistance level during bear market cycles. Essentially, the overall structure of each bear market cycle is similar, presenting a pivotal trend line that is either the previous high or a support level. Once breached, the market will continue to sell off strongly until it reaches the bottom of the cycle. In the first two cycles since 2014, the bottoms were at the January moving average (MA50, blue trend line), while the last cycle was near the January moving average (MA100, green trend line).
Currently, the market is nearly reaching this turning point. If there is a short-term rebound and it is rejected at the lower high trend line, the second phase may start before February 2026.
It is also worth noting that the similar low structure of the 1W Relative Strength Index (RSI) that appeared during the bear market cycle indicates a bearish divergence signal, suggesting that the top of the bull market cycle is approaching.
Based on all the above conditions, it is not surprising that a bottom is found near or above the 100-day moving average (MA100), although it is the ideal point of technical formation after the price breaks below around 60000.
So, do you think the structure of the bear market cycles from previous years will appear again?

@Crypto_1986
Today's market fear index on 11.27 is 22, extreme fear
Yesterday's market fear index on 11.26 was 15, extreme fear
Bitcoin long-short ratio is 63.4%, Ethereum long-short ratio is 62%
The data still leans towards favorable conditions, with Bitcoin and Ethereum data continuously decreasing. During the night, there were even signs of a short squeeze. If Ethereum rises above 3000 and Bitcoin above 90000, based on the current data reference, there are no signs of stopping yet, and it is likely to continue breaking through resistance levels. The funding rate is also in a favorable state, and market commentary has started to show divergence, with some suggesting a new peak and others predicting a big explosion by the end of the year. My view remains unchanged; based on the reference data, I will only engage in short-term trades and testing the waters, participating rationally. $BTC $ETH $XRP

@Crypto_1986
Today, on 11.26, the market fear index is 15, indicating extreme fear.
Yesterday, on 11.25, the market fear index was 20, also indicating extreme fear.
The Bitcoin long-short ratio is 71%, while the Ethereum long-short ratio is 66.6%.
The most noteworthy point in recent days is the Ethereum long-short ratio data. Since the beginning of the year, it has rarely been lower than Bitcoin, with the basic long-short ratio starting to drop below 2:1, and the funding rate beginning to turn negative, indicating a predominance of short positions, which is also beneficial for the subsequent rebound. In terms of market sentiment, opinions are increasingly bullish on the market, and there are plenty of discussions about 8W Bitcoin and 3000 Ethereum. My own viewpoint remains unchanged: short-term trading is possible, but my periodic participation was cleared out before the National Day. Any participation in between is mainly for short-term and trial trading, which should be viewed rationally. $BTC $ETH $XRP