June 9, 2026
The outlook remains the same: BTC spot trades should stay on the sidelines, while contracts should be shorted on rallies, starting dollar-cost averaging below 55k.
(1) Rising oil prices are suppressing interest rate cut expectations.
Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume normal navigation, and the market's expectations for recovery are continuously being pushed back.
Disruptions in navigation will drive up energy costs; if oil prices stay elevated for the long term, inflation will struggle to come down quickly.
The logic is simple:
High oil prices → Inflation hard to reduce → Lower probability of rate cuts → Risk assets under pressure.
Without rate cut expectations, the market is unlikely to sustain a significant trend.
(2) Risk of a Bank of Japan rate hike.
According to the Nikkei, the Bank of Japan may raise rates to 1% at the June meeting.
This is a key point to watch.
Last August, a rate hike by Japan triggered significant volatility in global risk assets. If the yen strengthens again, it could bring renewed pressure for arbitrage trades to unwind, putting BTC and Nasdaq under short-term pressure.
(3) Trading strategy.
Next, we are focusing on three signals:
June 16th Bank of Japan meeting results, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether BTC ETF fund flows turn positive.
Opportunities are found through patience, not guesswork.
The bottom range of 55k-49k is a good spot for dollar-cost averaging; wait for confirmation signals to appear!
The outlook remains the same: BTC spot trades should stay on the sidelines, while contracts should be shorted on rallies, starting dollar-cost averaging below 55k.
(1) Rising oil prices are suppressing interest rate cut expectations.
Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume normal navigation, and the market's expectations for recovery are continuously being pushed back.
Disruptions in navigation will drive up energy costs; if oil prices stay elevated for the long term, inflation will struggle to come down quickly.
The logic is simple:
High oil prices → Inflation hard to reduce → Lower probability of rate cuts → Risk assets under pressure.
Without rate cut expectations, the market is unlikely to sustain a significant trend.
(2) Risk of a Bank of Japan rate hike.
According to the Nikkei, the Bank of Japan may raise rates to 1% at the June meeting.
This is a key point to watch.
Last August, a rate hike by Japan triggered significant volatility in global risk assets. If the yen strengthens again, it could bring renewed pressure for arbitrage trades to unwind, putting BTC and Nasdaq under short-term pressure.
(3) Trading strategy.
Next, we are focusing on three signals:
June 16th Bank of Japan meeting results, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether BTC ETF fund flows turn positive.
Opportunities are found through patience, not guesswork.
The bottom range of 55k-49k is a good spot for dollar-cost averaging; wait for confirmation signals to appear!