B圈紫薯精

This week, the oil market's price action has been pretty wild, looking like a setup.

It's reminiscent of the last time during the 'Saving Private Ryan' scenario—like an extreme rescue operation for downed pilots. Although, to this day, none of the rescued pilots have shown up, leading to rumors that the U.S. was actually there to dig up enriched uranium and got caught in a script.

This time, we have another downed aircraft that was rescued, but without any credible details, making it tough to tell if this is a U.S. play or if Iran is making moves on its own.

But terms like 'Iranian aggression' and 'U.S. defensive retaliation' really feel off, almost like it's all Iran's fault while the U.S. plays the victim. Regardless of who initiated it, isn't it strange that the U.S. is claiming to be invaded right by Iran's doorstep? You'd think Iran had landed on North America or something.

So this narrative might be aimed at justifying the military conflict's escalation to domestic audiences, trying to gain legitimacy within the ally framework, and seizing the moral high ground for future actions.

Right now, oil prices are indeed sitting at recent lows; even though the risk premium spiked after the dawn of conflict, it doesn't explain why oil remains below 90.

This leaves us with two possibilities:

1. Big money thinks this conflict is just a temporary blip, believing Iran is the one provoking, and Trump isn't looking to escalate further.

2. This is merely a temporary market mispricing, triggered by a sell-off in the stock market due to tail-end panic, leading to capital fleeing faster than the war risk premium can rise. Once the stock market stabilizes, we could see oil prices rebound significantly.

No matter how the trends in #Memecion rotate, #WorldCup is the most consistent play right now!

I’ve said it a thousand times: buy the dips. On BSC, this is the only game in town. Meanwhile, over on SOL, $WORLDCUP rebounded to 12 million in the first four days; that show is over. Now it's BSC's turn to take the spotlight.

The daily candlestick for $WorldCup shows a strong rebound; the brothers who scooped up from the bottom should already be cashing in.

With just two days until the match, those of you holding bags better hold tight, as there’s a high likelihood we could see a second peak back around 5 million!

Perfect weak validation, a textbook for risk control at the bull-bear divergence point.
Yesterday locked in 62510 as the bull-bear lifeline,
clearly indicating a weak rebound.
Today, the market played out a classic dead cat bounce.
Thanks to our strategy, we had our stop-loss set to cover costs,
our ETH long position successfully dodged the turbulence,
securing profits.

BTC 2-hour chart: The price ruthlessly broke below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, nearing the lower band, with RSI 6 crashing down to 32.06 in the oversold zone.
A typical dead cat bounce formation,
weak rebound followed by further downward probing.
Resistance levels at 71390, 67580, 64390
Support level at 59090.

ETH 2-hour chart: Sliding down along the lower band of the Bollinger Bands with increasing volume, RSI 6 is in the extreme panic zone at 23.75.
Bollinger Bands down, RSI 23.7
Resistance levels at 1910, 1825, 1689
Support level at 1505.

Tonight's CPI data is set to hit hard, with wild fluctuations and spikes expected to be exceptionally brutal.
Today's core strategy remains unchanged: a rebound is just fuel for the bears, continue to short the trend.

How can the average person break through?

Buy an iPhone on your phone

Get a MacBook for your computer

Shop online at Xianyu

Shop offline at Sam's Club

For gas cars, go with BBA

For electric cars, pick Tesla

Eat meat, eggs, and dairy

For Western food, hit up McDonald's

Work in Shenzhen

Only trust Western medicine for health

Use AI for searches

Got questions? Hit up X

If the Bank of Japan pulls the trigger on interest rates next week, the crypto crew might just face another brutal round.\n\nI dug into previous instances,\n\nand they mostly look grim.\n\nIn March 2024,\n\nBTC took a nosedive of 20.8% afterward.\n\nIn July 2024,\n\nit dropped by 29.1%.\n\nCome January 2025,\n\nit plummeted 32.3%.\n\nAnd by December 2025,\n\nit tumbled another 33.8%.\n\nThe worst part isn’t even the drop itself,\n\nit’s that you have no clue if it’s gonna crash instantly,\n\nor if it’s gonna slowly grind you down over weeks.\n\nSo, are we gearing up for a repeat this time?

June 9, 2026

The outlook remains the same: BTC spot trades should stay on the sidelines, while contracts should be shorted on rallies, starting dollar-cost averaging below 55k.

(1) Rising oil prices are suppressing interest rate cut expectations.

Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume normal navigation, and the market's expectations for recovery are continuously being pushed back.

Disruptions in navigation will drive up energy costs; if oil prices stay elevated for the long term, inflation will struggle to come down quickly.

The logic is simple:

High oil prices → Inflation hard to reduce → Lower probability of rate cuts → Risk assets under pressure.

Without rate cut expectations, the market is unlikely to sustain a significant trend.

(2) Risk of a Bank of Japan rate hike.

According to the Nikkei, the Bank of Japan may raise rates to 1% at the June meeting.

This is a key point to watch.

Last August, a rate hike by Japan triggered significant volatility in global risk assets. If the yen strengthens again, it could bring renewed pressure for arbitrage trades to unwind, putting BTC and Nasdaq under short-term pressure.

(3) Trading strategy.

Next, we are focusing on three signals:

June 16th Bank of Japan meeting results, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether BTC ETF fund flows turn positive.

Opportunities are found through patience, not guesswork.

The bottom range of 55k-49k is a good spot for dollar-cost averaging; wait for confirmation signals to appear!

No wonder nobody's playing with the altcoins anymore. During the dip, I picked up some US stocks on Binance. You don’t have to worry about waking up to a zero balance. The stablecoins are steadily climbing, and the volatility isn't that wild.

To get rich quick, you gotta ride the wave, be the pig on the bull run.

Folks from the '60s hit the jackpot with reform and opening up: Zong Qinghou, Wang Shi.
Those from the '70s capitalized on real estate and the early internet: Xu Jiayin, Zhang Chaoyang.
The '80s crowd struck gold with mobile internet: Zhang Yiming, Wang Xing, Li Xiang, Huang Zheng.
Now the '90s generation is diving into the crypto scene: Sun Yuchen, He Yi (good looks categorized in the '90s).
And the '00s are all about AI: a whole bunch of twenty-something billionaires.

Right now, the crypto market is on the decline, but the AI wave is just getting started, let's catch that!

If you're feeling less energetic than before, feeling soft and weak, and even sleep isn't helping you recover, there's some bad news and some good news.

Good news: Your body might have underlying inflammation, and if caught early, with the right intervention, you'll be fine.

Bad news: You might just be getting older.

With one effort, you can overcome ten, the decision-making time for chasing highs or going short is extremely short,

The mindset in crypto is currently the most advanced in the entire financial sector,

By 2026, China's flexible workforce is projected to hit 320 million, an increase of 40 million from the previous year. Given that the total employment in China was 725 million at the end of 2025, this means over 44% are in a flexible employment state.

Something's off, and today’s market action is pretty shady. All the news is bearish, yet we’re not seeing any drop. I was expecting a major crash in the Japanese and Korean stock markets, plus there’s a war in Iran, so logically, it should've slipped down smoothly. Instead, the crypto market surprisingly shot up—what the heck? I honestly suspect some whales are manipulating the market to liquidate shorts; it looks like the price is being pumped up by the big players. They’re probably going to blow out the shorts first before letting it drop. The market is just impossible to read—totally confusing and unplayable, with zero logic! To put it bluntly, the bulls are wrecked, there's no way to cut losses, and the market makers are just going to eat the shorts alive; stepping in to bet means you’re dead meat!

The buy-the-dip crowd is starting to grow again for Bitcoin.
This morning, Bitcoin took a dip around 64,000.
Ethereum dipped around 1,700.
There’s still some distance to the real resistance levels.
Strong resistance for Bitcoin is around 65,000.
Strong resistance for Ethereum is around 1,880.
Given Ethereum's ongoing weak correlation to Bitcoin,
if Bitcoin hits 65,000, seeing Ethereum at 1,800 would be considered bullish.
After wrapping up the weekly close today,
currently, from a weekly chart perspective, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are near the MACD reversal point.
The weekly downtrend isn’t over yet.
U.S. stock futures closed with a big bearish candle on the weekly,
and they’re still at elevated levels.
This week, with SpaceX launching and the World Cup kicking off,
the market is likely to see further liquidity extraction.
Overall,
this week still looks like a downtrend week.
On Monday, Bitcoin and Ethereum's early morning bounce liquidated some big short positions.
If we blow up those upper limit sell orders this week, we should expect to continue the bearish trend.

How to determine the current retracement level? Look for which level is about to generate a golden cross, and that will indicate where the retracement is headed. Yesterday morning, I noticed that the bottoms on the 4-12 hour charts had already formed, so the highest bounce could be seen on the 12-hour chart, starting with sequential retracements on the 4-hour. When shorting, it’s also done sequentially. I marked all the resistance points of this bounce yesterday, including the minor resistance points (note: whether to short at these minor resistance points should depend on the strength of the current market's retracement momentum. For example, the peak yesterday was at 1648, I shorted at 1646 and took profit when it retraced to 1626-1616. I skipped the planned shorts at 1666-1688 and went straight for 1720, anticipating that the 8 and 12-hour retracements would kick in). Each time the 8 and 12-hour retracements finish, the market will change direction. After the 12-hour retracement hits the corresponding resistance, check the daily trend; if the daily is bearish, expect a pullback.

For instance, the 12-hour golden cross has already formed but hasn't activated yet. The indicators below 1 hour are performing strong, so the upward retracement at this level is expected to be effective, and the highest point of the bounce will ultimately depend on the resistance near where the 12-hour retracement reaches. Why did I target 63750-64250 to short during the 4-hour retracement last night? The high for the 4-hour retracement is based on the upper Bollinger band (63850) and the 1-day EMA7 (64250). So, which two indicators should we look at for the 6-hour level retracement? If you're still unclear, it's time to find a mentor and learn one-on-one to master it perfectly in 3 days.

It's been a rollercoaster of a couple of days, with the non-farm payroll data sending us to new heights.

The unexpected 172K non-farm payroll number had the whole market freaking out, pushing the swap market's rate hike probability above 70% in one go.

Will there be a rate hike?

At least from my perspective, the Fed will likely keep rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range during June, and the idea of a rate hike this year is more of a market overreaction than anything else.

Right now, it's obvious that the market is spooked by all the major headlines, with the probability of a rate hike being pushed to 72.7% due to emotional trading, but that's just a short-term knee-jerk reaction.

A strong labor market doesn't equate to an overheated economy, and it certainly doesn't mean inflation is hard to bring down, nor does it directly trigger a resumption of rate hikes.

American workers are getting poorer; they're being forced back into low-wage jobs just to make ends meet:

- In May, nominal hourly wages grew by 3.45% year-on-year, but the actual inflation rate sits at 3.8%, which means the real purchasing power of American workers is in negative growth territory. Several quarters of inflation pressure have rapidly drained household balance sheets.

- Data shows that high-paying jobs in finance dropped by 22,000, while the bulk of new jobs came from leisure and hospitality (+70,000) and local government (+55,000). If the economy were overheated, firms should be aggressively expanding in high productivity, pro-cyclical core sectors.

And that’s exactly what’s happening; ordinary Americans are having to swallow their pride and take low-paying gigs in restaurants and hotels just to make ends meet in the face of soaring prices and shrinking real wages.

The survival pressure is pushing an increase in labor supply, but it doesn't have a sustainable demand-pull effect (because as soon as cash is in hand, inflation devours it), and the Fed's higher-ups are well aware of this. On the contrary, it suggests that high rates are deeply eroding the real economy. If policymakers mistakenly interpret the temporary revival of the bottom tier as a sign of inflation and blindly restart rate hikes, we could quickly spiral into a credit and consumer crash.

There won't be a rate hike, there won't be a rate cut, and we’re not at a deadlock yet, but the risk market will likely have to endure a high-rate environment for some time.

BTC hasn't broken 58000 yet, recent resistance is at 62000. A rebound around 61850 is a good spot to short; if it doesn't hit that, don't add to your position. Keep a close stop-loss around 62000. For the portions you add, it's safe to take profits at the recent support levels to avoid being over-leveraged.

On Friday, MSTR closed at 120.9, which is 16 bucks away from 104. That's 16/120=13%. Next week, BTC might dip another 6-7% before finding support, so look to enter around 56666-57455.

Is it quiet again? US stocks, why aren't they as hot as Google?

Damn, every day it's Nvidia, MRVL, Micron, SanDisk, Nokia going back and forth, still making noise. They say MRVL is the next trillion-dollar company, Micron's DRAM is skyrocketing, and there's talk of a trillion-dollar market cap sprint. Day in and day out, it's either NVDA or MRVL pumping, or Micron and SanDisk. Why is it that as soon as I jump in, it stops pumping? Did I crash it with my buy-in? ...

Good thing I never flex my paycheck
Lots of jealous haters out there
They never see your true potential
Just focus on how you hustle and grind
But they don’t study the market
Only think about how to keep you from cashing in

Exciting! This is the long-awaited crypto market washout!

The screens are drenched in red, Bitcoin is plummeting straight down, now crazy rubbing against the 61k mark. The entire network is wailing, but I have to say, this spine-tingling volatility that gets the adrenaline pumping is the familiar Web3 we know!

From the perspective of old hunters, this dip hasn't even hit the floor yet:

Institutional buy-side vacuum: ETFs are seeing continuous net outflows, as funds are all heading to party with the traditional US stock AI giants, draining liquidity from the crypto space.

Leverage isn't cleaned out yet: without a thorough liquidation and a 'margin call baptism', it's hard to find a true market bottom.

I'm feeling a bit excited right now; the harder the market drops, the greater the potential upside ahead. Don't rush to catch falling knives halfway up the mountain, stay put. I believe it won't be long before a golden opportunity starting with '5' lands right in front of us.

The bullets are already chambered, the climax is still to come, so get ready for an even more thrilling money-making market!

When the market dips and everyone panics, you stay cool.

Identify the top-tier projects from earlier.

Once you feel Bitcoin is stabilizing, jump in with some swing trades.