Answering a friend's question: Does the yen interest rate hike have little impact? Isn't a US rate cut a good thing?

Will Japan's interest rate hike in December, combined with Greenspan 2.0 trades, have a significant impact on the market?

Here, I subjectively define it as a necessary interest rate hike, and based on that, I judge it using macroeconomic conditions and data.

I have introduced the question to @SurfAI, and the results from SURF are far better than what many Twitter bloggers have written, incorporating a lot of data that combines the volatility of the crypto market and provided me with great references (as shown in the figure).

The information available creates meaningless drivel; after listing my thoughts, I conclude: even if Japan lowers interest rates in December, the market shock will be far less significant than 8.5 (I escaped the peak on July 26), based on the following:

1. 8.5 was a surprise attack by the Bank of Japan, while at that time, the Fed's rate cut path and employment data triggered the Sam's Law (for friends with poor memory, let me help you recall). In an environment of extreme liquidity panic, it is equivalent to a double panic overlay.

2. Last year's market flash crash was due to unwinding brought about by the yen carry trade; aside from discussing the reverse trade of short yen and long dollars as the root of unwinding, one must also consider the proportion of Japanese carry trades in the US stock market.

Among them:

USD/JPY: Dropped from above 155 to 154.56 (Tokyo time afternoon on December 5), a yen appreciation of about 0.3%, indicating that long positions on yen against the dollar have significantly reduced compared to last year, and the risk has been released.

Yen carry trade: Estimated to reach $1.7 trillion, which is far less than half of last year.

The two sets of data above are from surai and have provided significant data support for my judgment.

Starting this week, the market is overpricing the Fed's shadow chairman, Hassett, and the market expects Powell to resign on Monday, leading to excessive optimism in launching Greenspan 2.0 trades.

I focus on macro expectations, using candlestick patterns as entry points, and opened two short positions of $BTC at 93203 (see quoted tweet), with a short position of 10 BTC; unfortunately, due to an error in my API, I blew up my entire position, and the short position was closed at 89200.

There's nothing much to share; I also didn't feel like re-establishing positions after the liquidation.

Current trades must not be influenced by the shadow of the previous trades; each trade must be independently thought out.

For friends who are somewhat blind and rely on others for help, I sincerely suggest you ask SurfAI.