12.4 sold BTC, 3700 bought gold is my most successful trade this year.
Yesterday I said that I don't think it's a bear market now, various experts say that liquidity is gone.
For me, investment is a systematic tool, whether it's Bitcoin, altcoins, or cross-domain bonds, stocks (rarely), gold, or currency differentials, the allocation in different cycles is crucial.
What you dream of is to go long and trade with low overhead, but the allocation and hedging of assets are the keys to long-term survival, which is why I say this is my most successful trade.
A few years ago, after @DeerHTX came to discuss matters, I talked about company asset allocation and used gold to issue year-end bonuses.
On the eve of the presidential election, it was the first time in this cycle that I called for gold, at that time gold was 2500. (See Welcome to the Great Inflation, High Deficit Era)
12.4 sold BTC, called for gold, at that time the gold price was 3700.
I wrote a trilogy on gold:
What exactly does gold hedge in safe-haven assets? Discuss the risk of gold being only liquidity risk. How to use gold to hedge against the logic of currency debasement.
In a very minor macro event, I hesitated whether to buy the dip on BTC, and I chose to continue buying gold.
If you don't have a gold exchange and find physical gold cumbersome, you can choose ETFs on the blockchain.
Now Binance has launched $XAU London gold contracts, and OK has had spot XAU for a long time, as well as $PAXG RWA gold.
FOMC trading: The top has hardened while the bottom hasn't, hands are dovish, but the mouth isn't. (A bit of brain work).
FOMC trading: The top has hardened while the bottom hasn't, hands are dovish, but the mouth isn't. (A bit of brain work).
Before discussing this trade, let me help my friends with poor memory recall.
Last time: Didn't everyone say that when the US government reopened and the TGA account was unblocked, it would bring liquidity? Wasn't the result a big drop?
This time: Didn't everyone say that interest rates have been cut, and the immediate action is to purchase short-term bonds, starting to expand the balance sheet on Friday? Wasn't the result a big drop?
So why is it that with all the favorable conditions and improvements in liquidity, the result is a big drop?
Answering a friend's question: How to earn steady money at this stage.
A friend mentioned that not many people called for yesterday's rave because there was only one alpha. Seeing what So Ge posted in the group, they still weren't daring enough to jump in, not expecting such a significant increase.
Recently, I've lost quite a bit playing contracts; how can I earn some steady money to build up my capital?
You always want me to take you along when I trade, but without your own trading logic, it's hard for you to make money.
Have you thought about whose money you're earning in the current market, and in which part of the process?
For example, take $F as an example, a defi project that belongs to Binance's new coin (still on the homepage), which has been listed on the Korean exchange, with a daily spot trading volume of 500,000 on weekdays and 300,000 on non-working days.
How do you find the opposing side? How do you ensure you aren't repeatedly manipulated?
So what does a defi project go through from inception to graduation?
You need to commit to token rewards to pull TVL and interaction data.
You need to create buzz before being listed, because new projects in the market emerge too quickly; without publicity, no one will remember you.
When you're listed, you need to provide coins; you can't control the market.
These are the basics; after being listed, will you still have money to pump, or continue to attract attention? In this low liquidity moment?
My group has 8,000 people. I don't do rebates, so I’m more focused on establishing a trading system and investment mindset rather than guiding you to trade.
When I was working on @TheoriqAI's vault, I mentioned that the returns after saving money include ETH inflation, lending, and basic returns in TGE that can be claimed with tokens and cash for those who have more money to earn points.
This is the most straightforward, defi rewards!
If you're afraid of ETH dropping, you could open an equal short position on @StandX_Official. This not only hedges against the risk of losing capital but is also a faster way to earn points than saving in the vault (StandX vault).
This has the highest odds; you don't spend much money and can grab an early stake with Binance support that likely has a seat at the table.
At this time, arbitrage thinking is easier to profit from than trying to chase volatile markets, of course, if you’re not afraid of diving into spot trading with only 300,000 trading volume, as if I never said it.
Understanding all this, if you are still lazy and expect others to give you direction, thinking you can make money just by following along is nothing but a pipe dream.
Last night, $RAVE was a special case where I rarely took action and seldom called people to buy.
I bought 20,000 for 160m $RAVE , then sold it for over 10,000 at 256m, now it's 560m.
Going to bed early and waking up early is good for health, but my erectile dysfunction has become more serious.
Selling high is always profitable, selling high is always profitable.
I feel like I support quite a few aggregation groups, aggregating the trades I made.
But the aggregation group really messes with your mindset, one person from the aggregation group came over to ask me about trading.
You’re using the aggregation group and have pirated stuff, and then come to ask the main person about trading, and the main person has already sold high.
FOMC trading: The top has hardened while the bottom hasn't, hands are dovish, but the mouth isn't. (A bit of brain work).
FOMC trading: The top has hardened while the bottom hasn't, hands are dovish, but the mouth isn't. (A bit of brain work).
Before discussing this trade, let me help my friends with poor memory recall.
Last time: Didn't everyone say that when the US government reopened and the TGA account was unblocked, it would bring liquidity? Wasn't the result a big drop?
This time: Didn't everyone say that interest rates have been cut, and the immediate action is to purchase short-term bonds, starting to expand the balance sheet on Friday? Wasn't the result a big drop?
So why is it that with all the favorable conditions and improvements in liquidity, the result is a big drop?
$DOYR Is it all insider information? Can BSC only engage in insider trading?
The widely circulated image in the community shows a screenshot of a chat record, countless people regret not being part of the core circle, and then they push it up saying, damn, it's all insider information.
But what can this image prove? Can it be considered conclusive evidence?
Honestly, it doesn't hold up.
@heyibinance said during the meeting that it’s not just about picking a word from her and @cz_binance's replies and then the dev posting a meme is meme culture.
Then the insider event of Huangguozhong appeared.
The timing on doyr also has the color of strong double saint replies.
It can be foreseen that everyone will continue to speculate about insider trading, countless KOLs selling at the moment of going live on Alpha.
So returning to what the first sister said about watching the community and the heat, should we look at whether the birth of meme culture will further promote the long-term development of memes on the BSC chain.
In the early days of Doge, everyone was keen on the spoofed dog head, from creating emojis to satirizing pocket change, to the creation of elements based on memes, expanding the common denominator.
And here, meme culture has become double saint culture, bringing only the outcome of P.
Self-pity is useless, my brain doesn’t grasp it, I can only view it from a technical perspective as trading.
Of course, many people have made money in this double saint market in their own way. As shown in the image, this is where I learn.
Answering a friend's question: Does the yen interest rate hike have little impact? Isn't a US rate cut a good thing?
For example, why is my current position $BTC 93203 a short position?
Since the market is trading and Hassert is easing, why not go long?
If you don't have a very keen judgment, I personally do not recommend trading macro single event contracts.
Many bloggers love to write about a single event, then if it meets expectations it's long, if not it's short; most of these are just finding reasons for the price changes.
Having a systematic trading approach to link macro times makes it easier to understand; the river can deceive you, and data can be false, but all times combined surely serve a greater purpose.
If you agree with this viewpoint, I can help everyone connect my recent trades.
A rate cut is a means, not an end!
The idea of US rate cuts and yen rises, I have basically discussed early on, and it's based on conclusions drawn from multiple reasons.
So what is the goal?
US rate cuts and yen rises, shadow chairperson, Russia-Ukraine peace, early sprouts barking, it seems they all come together, seemingly beneficial, but the rebound isn’t much, is it?
US rate cuts and yen rises: yen absorbs dollar overflow
Shadow chairperson: Pressuring to create rate cut expectations
Russia-Ukraine peace: Peace is impossible; if it's to be, it won't be.
Early sprouts: Stimulating great power anger, creating geopolitical risks.
In summary: Eurasia is not viable; the rest have died early, with the US as an exception.
Funds flow back to the US, AI can still be discussed, and it can still be good.
If Dazi can figure it out, then let Google continue, no matter what pu.
Prosperous? AI revolution?
It seems prosperous is also prosperous, because only in this way can capital believe in US exceptionalism.
Who do you think will absorb this liquidity?
After 12.4 took the big pie, when I waited until 83000, I hesitated; take a detailed look at my article on hesitation, at that time I chose to continue with gold.
Here you can continue the AI narrative as a hot topic at @MSX_CN; the AI bubble is still not visible.
You can also do QQQ; although it seems it hasn't adjusted much, individual US stocks have adjusted a lot.
I tend to be timid; many analysts think the crypto circle is most sensitive to liquidity.
But at least I can see that the river hopes the US stock market will absorb liquidity.
Therefore, I continue with gold and QQQ, a bit more stable.
This article needs to connect recent trading thoughts
Blind people, be cautious; I never make late remarks.
alert的会所
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Will Japan's interest rate hike in December, combined with Greenspan 2.0 trades, have a significant impact on the market?
Here, I subjectively define it as a necessary interest rate hike, and based on that, I judge it using macroeconomic conditions and data.
I have introduced the question to @SurfAI, and the results from SURF are far better than what many Twitter bloggers have written, incorporating a lot of data that combines the volatility of the crypto market and provided me with great references (as shown in the figure).
The information available creates meaningless drivel; after listing my thoughts, I conclude: even if Japan lowers interest rates in December, the market shock will be far less significant than 8.5 (I escaped the peak on July 26), based on the following:
1. 8.5 was a surprise attack by the Bank of Japan, while at that time, the Fed's rate cut path and employment data triggered the Sam's Law (for friends with poor memory, let me help you recall). In an environment of extreme liquidity panic, it is equivalent to a double panic overlay.
2. Last year's market flash crash was due to unwinding brought about by the yen carry trade; aside from discussing the reverse trade of short yen and long dollars as the root of unwinding, one must also consider the proportion of Japanese carry trades in the US stock market.
Among them:
USD/JPY: Dropped from above 155 to 154.56 (Tokyo time afternoon on December 5), a yen appreciation of about 0.3%, indicating that long positions on yen against the dollar have significantly reduced compared to last year, and the risk has been released.
Yen carry trade: Estimated to reach $1.7 trillion, which is far less than half of last year.
The two sets of data above are from surai and have provided significant data support for my judgment.
Starting this week, the market is overpricing the Fed's shadow chairman, Hassett, and the market expects Powell to resign on Monday, leading to excessive optimism in launching Greenspan 2.0 trades.
I focus on macro expectations, using candlestick patterns as entry points, and opened two short positions of $BTC at 93203 (see quoted tweet), with a short position of 10 BTC; unfortunately, due to an error in my API, I blew up my entire position, and the short position was closed at 89200.
There's nothing much to share; I also didn't feel like re-establishing positions after the liquidation.
Current trades must not be influenced by the shadow of the previous trades; each trade must be independently thought out.
For friends who are somewhat blind and rely on others for help, I sincerely suggest you ask SurfAI.
Will Japan's interest rate hike in December, combined with Greenspan 2.0 trades, have a significant impact on the market?
Here, I subjectively define it as a necessary interest rate hike, and based on that, I judge it using macroeconomic conditions and data.
I have introduced the question to @SurfAI, and the results from SURF are far better than what many Twitter bloggers have written, incorporating a lot of data that combines the volatility of the crypto market and provided me with great references (as shown in the figure).
The information available creates meaningless drivel; after listing my thoughts, I conclude: even if Japan lowers interest rates in December, the market shock will be far less significant than 8.5 (I escaped the peak on July 26), based on the following:
1. 8.5 was a surprise attack by the Bank of Japan, while at that time, the Fed's rate cut path and employment data triggered the Sam's Law (for friends with poor memory, let me help you recall). In an environment of extreme liquidity panic, it is equivalent to a double panic overlay.
2. Last year's market flash crash was due to unwinding brought about by the yen carry trade; aside from discussing the reverse trade of short yen and long dollars as the root of unwinding, one must also consider the proportion of Japanese carry trades in the US stock market.
Among them:
USD/JPY: Dropped from above 155 to 154.56 (Tokyo time afternoon on December 5), a yen appreciation of about 0.3%, indicating that long positions on yen against the dollar have significantly reduced compared to last year, and the risk has been released.
Yen carry trade: Estimated to reach $1.7 trillion, which is far less than half of last year.
The two sets of data above are from surai and have provided significant data support for my judgment.
Starting this week, the market is overpricing the Fed's shadow chairman, Hassett, and the market expects Powell to resign on Monday, leading to excessive optimism in launching Greenspan 2.0 trades.
I focus on macro expectations, using candlestick patterns as entry points, and opened two short positions of $BTC at 93203 (see quoted tweet), with a short position of 10 BTC; unfortunately, due to an error in my API, I blew up my entire position, and the short position was closed at 89200.
There's nothing much to share; I also didn't feel like re-establishing positions after the liquidation.
Current trades must not be influenced by the shadow of the previous trades; each trade must be independently thought out.
For friends who are somewhat blind and rely on others for help, I sincerely suggest you ask SurfAI.
alert的会所
--
The account was liquidated.
After every big win, either I get liquidated or I inexplicably lose money.
This morning was quite troublesome; the automated strategy from Han was not turned off. Made a trade of $BOB .
There are many judgment conditions, but I won't go into them here. When using market cap judgment conditions, the market caps of CMC and Coinglass did not match, leading to some operations not being triggered.
I blew up my entire account.
Approximately $110,000, and I also liquidated my 9.32, which was empty yesterday, $BTC .
After every big win, either I get liquidated or I inexplicably lose money.
This morning was quite troublesome; the automated strategy from Han was not turned off. Made a trade of $BOB .
There are many judgment conditions, but I won't go into them here. When using market cap judgment conditions, the market caps of CMC and Coinglass did not match, leading to some operations not being triggered.
I blew up my entire account.
Approximately $110,000, and I also liquidated my 9.32, which was empty yesterday, $BTC .