How will tonight go?

The Federal Reserve's year-end interest rate meeting for 2025 will be held on December 9-10, and the market widely predicts a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at this meeting. Here are the key predictions and relevant basis:

1. High probability of a rate cut: As of December 9, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points has risen to 89.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 10.4%. Wall Street institutions like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also adjusted their views, unanimously predicting a 25 basis point cut at this meeting.

2. Internal divisions still exist: Dovish officials such as New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly clearly support a rate cut, fearing the risk of a deteriorating job market; meanwhile, the hawkish camp, including Boston Fed President Collins, holds a hesitant attitude toward further cuts, believing that the current interest rate level is necessary for controlling inflation. Among the 12 voting policymakers, as many as 5 have opposed or questioned further rate cuts.

3. Additional market focus: In addition to the rate cut decision, investors will also focus on the Federal Reserve's latest quarterly economic outlook report and Powell's post-meeting press conference statements. These contents will provide important signals for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path next year, influencing the year-end trend of global capital markets.

The results of this meeting will be announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11.