1. Extreme uncertainty before the Federal Reserve's decision
At 3 AM tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision. There is virtually no suspense for this meeting, as the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the rate to about 3.75% in the 'neutral range.' The so-called neutral interest rate is neither too tight nor too loose, meaning the Federal Reserve has reasons to pause rate cuts in the future, but may also accelerate the pace of rate cuts due to a weakening labor market.
However, due to a brief government shutdown in the U.S. during September and October, a large amount of economic data is missing, making the market's judgment on the actual economic situation unclear. Additionally, with the current chair Powell, who has been in charge for 8 years, about to step down, whether he will release hawkish 'restrictive rate cut' statements at the end of his term has also become a variable that is difficult for the market to price in advance for this meeting. Meanwhile, the new popular candidate Hassett clearly stated in a recent interview: 'We can accelerate rate cuts.'
The strong conflict between the old and new factions is likely to trigger significant fluctuations in this meeting.
Therefore, Old K recommends that before the meeting, whether going long or short, regardless of whether the technical aspect is bullish or bearish, one should lock in profits and reduce positions to isolate risks.
2. Bitcoin market: ETF and contract resonance drive the rise, but the strength is unstable.
From yesterday's ETF data, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of over 3000 coins, significantly larger than the 668 coins from the previous day, indicating that Wall Street institutions are clearly bottom fishing. At the same time, a large number of BTC withdrawal actions have occurred on exchanges, indicating that spot buying is indeed driving the market.
But from a finer structure, the strength of futures contracts during yesterday's rise was much greater than that of spot. The spot CVD is still in a downtrend, indicating that true spot buying is limited, and more of the rise is driven by leverage.
When the price touches $94,000–95,000, the spot CVD shows a sharp drop, indicating that institutional spot investors are concentrating on taking profits in this area; however, at the same time, long contracts do not show obvious liquidation, indicating that the market is still being 'held up' by long contracts.
The typical risk of this structure is: once the news does not meet expectations, the price is more likely to be 'pierced' down by the market.
From the liquidation heatmap, $92,000 has become the most concentrated area for long stop losses; the upside space is limited, while the downside has considerable momentum, so the probability of piercing $92,000 on news day is extremely high.
3. Key technical patterns: Converging triangle and triple bottom coexist
In the daily structure, Bitcoin's current form is at the end of a converging triangle, and the direction is about to be chosen. Although yesterday's upper shadow line briefly broke the downward trend line, the body still closed below the trend line, so it cannot be considered an effective breakout.
However, from the structural bottom, Bitcoin has already formed a double bottom → triple bottom pattern, and each low is getting higher, which is essentially a bullish technical signal.
Key price level:
First resistance level above: $98,000
Strong resistance: $108,000 (corresponding to 0.618 retracement)
If the news is dovish, both targets are likely to be reached.
However, if the Federal Reserve releases hawkish rate-cut statements, it may continue to oscillate below the downtrend line, or even retest the previous lows. If the lower level is lost, it may retest the range of 88,000–90,000.
Overall, the impact of news will far exceed technical aspects, so caution is required.
4. Practical strategy: How to judge direction at the critical moment in the early morning?
If you are willing to stay up late to watch the early morning market, you can judge the direction from the following signals:
1. See if the 1-hour candlestick stabilizes above the downtrend line
If multiple K lines stabilize and break through previous highs, then it can be followed to go long, targeting $98,000.
2. If it breaks the downtrend line and then quickly falls back
This is a typical false breakout pattern, meaning the market chooses to go down, suitable for following the trend to short.
This is the most critical judgment rule of the news day.
5. Ethereum: Structure is stronger than Bitcoin, key support at $3260
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's performance is stronger. The previous $3200 was an important resistance, but it has been broken by a large bullish candlestick yesterday.
According to previous analysis, the first target area for ETH is the $3300–3400 gap + the three-day moving average resonance area, which is now approaching this structure.
The current key support is $3260.
If BTC can continue to hold above 94,000, then entering ETH is often better than entering BTC for a higher risk-reward ratio.
For those who previously positioned at the bottom, it is more suitable to reduce holdings in batches here and wait for the next better entry point.
6. Altcoin opportunities: The breakout structure of Dash and XPL
Some altcoins show obvious technical patterns:
1. Dash (DASH)
The daily line is supported in the Vegas channel
The structure forms a head and shoulders bottom
If it can break through the 'stop-loss swap position' at $53.86
Then it is expected to rush towards the $64 area, where the selling pressure has been consumed multiple times, and the probability of breaking through is increasing.
2. XPL
In a descending wedge, it is a typical bullish pattern.
The 1-hour level has broken through the downtrend line and is above two left-side highs.
→ The 1-2-3 rule is fully satisfiedIf the pullback does not break the gap and stands back above the trend line again, consider entering.
The target is around $0.20
7. Summary: The night before the big battle, position management is more important than direction.
No matter how bullish various technical indicators are, how healthy the medium to long-term trend is, reducing positions always takes precedence over predicting direction before major Federal Reserve meetings.
The real opportunity will appear when the data is released and the market shows certainty.
Wishing you patience, clarity, and a steady response before major news, waiting for the next wave of market action.
