Announcement time: Beijing time December 11 at 3:00 (interest rate decision), 3:30 (Powell's speech).
Expected result:
A 25 basis point rate cut (probability 87.6%), lowering the federal funds rate from the current level.
Possible simultaneous announcement of "reserve management operations," meaning purchasing $45 billion in short-term Treasury bills each month starting January 2026, effectively expanding the balance sheet to maintain liquidity. Points of disagreement: There are significant politicized disagreements within the FOMC (5 committee members oppose the rate cut), and Powell needs to balance the positions of the hawks and doves.