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Financial Research Society - December 16, 2025

1. Market expectations are that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday, and uncertainties regarding the successor to the next Federal Reserve Chair have led to a decline in Bitcoin.
2. The U.S. non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate for November will be released tonight at 21:30.
3. The crypto market sentiment has dropped to 'freezing point', and the fear and greed index currently reports 11.
4. The unemployment rate may rise to 4.5%.
5. Federal Reserve's Williams stated on Monday that the decision to cut interest rates last week was correct, but the next steps are difficult to determine.

Bitcoin's daily chart has turned down again, the market has not stabilized, and it remains in a downward oscillation. Although the daily chart is oscillating at the bottom of the lifeline, a golden cross has not formed yet. The daily MACD has turned down again, and both the daily and four-hour charts have broken below the Bollinger middle track, keeping the entire market in a downward trend.

Bitcoin's reference range for today:
Support levels: around 85500, around 84200, around 83500
Resistance levels: around 86500, around 87400
Ethereum's reference range for today:
Support levels: around 2900, around 2860, around 2810
Resistance levels: around 3000, around 3050 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

Cai Yan She ~ December 13, 2025

1. The Crypto Fear Index fell to 23, returning to the 'Extreme Fear' range.
2. Trump's eldest son commented on 'RAVE/USD1 trading pair launch on Aster': This is a truly gradual popularization.
3. Market news: The Bank of Japan believes its interest rate hike cycle may be extended until it exceeds 0.75%.
4. Standard Chartered Bank collaborates with Coinbase to expand its primary brokerage business for institutional cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin rebounded to a high of around 93500 yesterday but then fell back to around 89500, once again testing the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands, forming slight support near 90000. The market had a minor rebound after a 15-minute halt in the decline. The market still maintains a downward trend, and each rebound has not stabilized, with the market in a weak rebound amidst oscillating declines.

Today's Bitcoin oscillation range reference:
Support levels: around 89600, around 88000, around 87400
Resistance levels: around 91900, around 92500
Today's Ethereum oscillation range reference:
Support levels: around 3060, around 3000, around 2968
Resistance levels: around 3160, around 3200 #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

Financial Research Society ~ December 12, 2025

1. The Crypto Fear Index is temporarily reported at 29, and the market is still in a 'fear' state.
2. Nasdaq-listed company Caliber has disclosed that it has pledged 75,000 LINK and will expand the pledge ratio.
3. The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $42.38 million yesterday.
4. The Zcash development team has released a dynamic fee proposal aimed at addressing the issue of rising costs due to fixed rates during periods of network activity.

Bitcoin has rebounded after touching the lower Bollinger Band in the four-hour level, currently oscillating around the Bollinger channel line at the four-hour level. The rebound continues to focus on the daily lifeline pressure level near 94,000; it is not considered a reversal until it breaks through and stabilizes here, representing a daily-level rebound.
Ethereum's daily-level rebound focuses on the daily pressure level around 3,320 and near 3,400. Ethereum has stood above the lifeline on the daily level, breaking through the Bollinger mid-band, showing strength compared to BTC.

Bitcoin's reference fluctuation range today:
Support levels: around 90,600, around 89,400, around 88,400.
Resistance levels: around 93,200, around 94,000.
Ethereum's reference fluctuation range today:
Support levels: around 3,168, around 3,100, around 3,060.
Resistance levels: around 3,300, around 3,380 #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 1869$BTC $ETH

Financial Research Society ~ December 11, 2025

1. Sei will collaborate with Xiaomi to pre-install Web3 payment applications in new smartphones globally.
2. The Federal Reserve concludes 2025 as expected, lowering interest rates by 25 basis points.
3. The Federal Reserve reduces the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting of rate cuts, in line with market expectations, totaling a 75 basis points cut for the year.
4. Dutch International: Still expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2026.
5. The Federal Reserve lowers rates by 25 basis points as expected; the dot plot indicates only one rate cut next year, with future decisions potentially depending on labor market data.

The interest rate cut is favorable news, with the market reacting as indicated by our expectations. Bitcoin rebounded to around 94000, but the daily pressure level could not hold, quickly dropping to around 90000, remaining in a downward bearish trend. The daily chart retraced to the Bollinger middle band, while the four-hour chart broke below the life line and the Bollinger middle band, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. Following the impact of news, after a rapid rise, it faced a sharp drop, still in a downward trend.

Bitcoin's reference volatility range today:
Support levels: around 88800, around 87900, around 87200
Resistance levels: around 91600, around 92500
Ethereum's reference volatility range today:
Support levels: around 3100, around 3030, around 2958
Resistance levels: around 3280, around 3340 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH

On December 11, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that I don't think anyone is currently expecting interest rate hikes as a baseline. The disagreement is whether to maintain interest rates or to cut them.

Some believe we should stop here and wait to see how things develop. Others think we should cut rates once more or even more times #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $ETH

On December 11, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis points rate cut at 3 AM Beijing time, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive meeting with a rate cut, aligning with market expectations, with a total reduction of 75 basis points this year.

The Federal Reserve's dot plot forecast indicates a 25 basis points rate cut in both 2026 and 2027.

Nick Timiraos, the "voice of the Federal Reserve," recently wrote that Federal Reserve officials have cut rates for the third consecutive meeting, but inflation and the job market should be greater concerns. There are unusual divisions within the Federal Reserve, and thus officials have hinted at a low willingness to continue cutting rates.

Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his speech that the labor market appears to be gradually cooling, while inflation levels remain slightly elevated. Inflation risks are skewed to the upside. Data from September's labor market shows a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with significant slowdown in job growth. Labor demand has noticeably slowed, vitality has weakened, and there is slight softness.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Haigh stated that the Federal Reserve has reached the endpoint of "preemptive rate cuts." She believes that "the next responsibility lies in the labor market data needing to weaken further to justify additional recent easing measures."

After Powell's speech, Bitcoin briefly surged past $94,000, then continued to decline, currently falling back to $90,700. #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

On December 11, the key points of the Federal Reserve meeting are as follows:

Policy Statement
1. Barclays: It is expected that the statement will include hawkish language, suggesting a pause in interest rate cuts in January next year.
2. JPMorgan: The wording of the statement may be adjusted to "focus on the magnitude and timing of further adjustments," which will be a subtle change, indicating a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts in subsequent meetings.
3. Wells Fargo: It is expected that the statement will convey signals to further raise the threshold for rate cuts and suggest that "maintaining the current interest rates" is the assumption of most committee members.#美联储重启降息步伐
1. Bank of America: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will announce the purchase of Treasury bills with a maturity of one year or less at a pace of $45 billion per month starting in January as "reserve management operations."
2. Wells Fargo: It is expected that this meeting will not make a decision on "reserve management operations," but rather lean towards announcing the initiation of the plan at the March meeting.

Powell's Statement
1. American Bank: Powell may avoid giving clear hawkish guidance, communication strategy may revolve around actual interest rates or data dependency.
2. Danske Bank: It is expected that Powell will continue the stance from the October meeting, clearly expressing opposition to the market's expectation of continuous rate cuts.
3. Deutsche Bank: It is expected that Powell will emphasize that the threshold for further rate cuts in early 2026 is very high, signaling a short-term pause in rate cuts.
4. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Blinder: It is expected that Powell will articulate rate cuts in a manner similar to the last press conference, warning the market not to assume that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates.
5. Morgan Stanley: It is expected that Powell will hint that the phase of monetary policy adjustment has ended, and any subsequent actions will be based on incremental meeting assessments and the latest data. #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

Impact on the cryptocurrency market
1. Short-term benefits but caution is needed:
Expectations of interest rate cuts have been partially priced in. If they meet expectations, Bitcoin may experience a short-term surge (resistance level at $94,000), but one should be wary of the risk of "buying the expectation and selling the fact." 
If the Federal Reserve simultaneously signals an expansion of the balance sheet, it will directly improve market liquidity and promote a healthy rise in the cryptocurrency market after the leverage reset (the current system leverage ratio has dropped from 10% to 4%-5%).
Risk points: If Powell's statement leans hawkish (such as suggesting a pause in interest rate cuts), it may trigger long liquidation (if Bitcoin drops below $91,000, the liquidation strength of long positions reaches $972 million).#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

Announcement time: Beijing time December 11 at 3:00 (interest rate decision), 3:30 (Powell's speech).
Expected result:
A 25 basis point rate cut (probability 87.6%), lowering the federal funds rate from the current level.
Possible simultaneous announcement of "reserve management operations," meaning purchasing $45 billion in short-term Treasury bills each month starting January 2026, effectively expanding the balance sheet to maintain liquidity.
Points of disagreement: There are significant politicized disagreements within the FOMC (5 committee members oppose the rate cut), and Powell needs to balance the positions of the hawks and doves.
#加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, followed by a press conference at 3:30 AM by Chairman Powell. Current market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut stand at 87.6%, making a rate cut almost a certainty, but the real core focus is not the rate cut itself, but whether the Federal Reserve will signal "balance sheet expansion" and liquidity injection plans. #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察

Financial Research Society - December 10, 2025

1. CZ: The four-year cycle of Bitcoin may have ended, and we may usher in a super cycle.
2. Slow Fog founder Yu Xian: Zcash's privacy mode is more easily accepted by regulators, but for strong privacy, Monero is still more 'hardcore'.
3. Standard Chartered Bank lowers its Bitcoin price forecast for 2025 to $100,000, down from a previous target of $200,000.
4. The Ethereum Foundation related address deposited 5,748 ETH to Kraken, worth $17.89 million.
5. Opinion: The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision and Powell's guidance.
6. The cryptocurrency fear index has risen to 26, escaping the 'extreme fear' range.

CZ spoke about a super cycle at the Dubai conference, breaking the four-year bull-bear pattern, and the market rebounded again due to his remarks. Bitcoin directly sprinted to the daily resistance level near 94,500 and has currently retreated to around 92,400. Bitcoin's daily line broke through the Bollinger middle track, with moving averages golden-crossing below the life line, forming a short-term rebound. The life line remains an important resistance level. The four-hour chart broke through the Bollinger middle track and touched the upper Bollinger track resistance before retreating.

Bitcoin's reference range for today:
Support levels: around 90,800, around 89,400, around 88,200
Resistance levels: around 93,000, around 94,000
Ethereum's reference range for today:
Support levels: around 3,140, around 3,035, around 2,968
Resistance levels: around 3,300, around 3,380 #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #大盘行情 $BTC $ETH

Finance Research Society – December 9, 2025

1. Strategy repurchased 10,624 bitcoins from December 1 to December 7;
2. BMNR announced total assets of $13.2 billion, having purchased 138,452 ETH last week, with ETH holdings exceeding 3.86 million;
3. The SEC has concluded its two-year investigation of Ondo Finance, paving the way for its expansion in the U.S. tokenized asset space;
4. PineBridge's Kelly expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points again on December 10, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, which is a step closer to the historical neutral rate of about 3% aimed at maintaining stable economic performance.

Bitcoin is experiencing bottom oscillations at the four-hour level, breaking out of the box range, with the four-hour Bollinger upper band around 92,000 remaining a key resistance level. The daily line is oscillating below the lifeline and has not broken through it; although it has breached the daily Bollinger middle band, it has not turned around, and the daily line remains in a bearish trend.

Today's Bitcoin oscillation range reference:
Support levels: around 89,100, around 88,000,
around 87,300
Resistance levels: around 91,800, around 92,500
Today's Ethereum oscillation range reference:
Support levels: around 3,020, around 2,968, around 2,895
Resistance levels: around 3,160, around 3,220

Inno believes that as the interest rate cut approaches, the market is becoming more cautious. Regardless of whether the rate is cut, speculation is high, with facts being sold, and with favorable conditions approaching, the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is high. A rebound is an opportunity to sell, and once good news lands, the market will likely continue to decline and adjust, with liquidity being relatively poor. #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #大盘动态

1. The H-token team associated wallet transferred $2.9 million worth of H-tokens to CEX at midnight.
2. Jupiter: The public sale of WET tokens has now resumed, with a limited sale of 30 million tokens.
3. USDC Treasury has minted an additional 500 million USDC on the Solana chain; Tether has issued an additional 1 billion USDT on the Tron chain.
4. Magma Finance has completed a $6 million strategic financing to build an adaptive liquidity engine for the Sui network.
5. BitMine increased its holdings by 138,452 ETH last week, with total holdings exceeding 3.86 million.
6. MegaETH: Next week, it will open Frontier to application developers.
7. The US SEC has concluded its two-year investigation into Ondo Finance without recommending charges.
8. BlackRock submits iShares Ethereum Trust ETF application for staking.
9. Ripple's $500 million stock sale has been revealed to have "profit protection" buyback clauses. Ripple completed a stock sale of approximately $500 million (valued at about $40 billion) in November. Some investors estimate that about 90% of Ripple's net assets come from its holdings of XRP (valued at approximately $124 billion in July, released in batches under lock-up). The agreement includes protection clauses: investors can sell back with an annualized return of 10% within 3-4 years; if Ripple chooses to repurchase, it will be at an annualized rate of 25%. It also includes liquidation priority.
10. An address turned $716 into $244,000 by trading Franklin tokens, achieving a return rate of 340 times. #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

Financial Research Society～December 8, 2025

1. Binance's global operations will transfer to the Abu Dhabi global market, service providers have changed.
2. The Governor of the Bank of Japan hinted at an interest rate hike, while the market still bets on a weaker yen;
3. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $87.77 million last week, with ARKB leading the net outflow at $77.86 million;
4. Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $65.59 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA leading the net outflow at $55.87 million.

Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced sharp drops and rises around the four-hour Bollinger middle band, breaking through the Bollinger middle band again after retracing to the Bollinger lower band, presenting a one bullish engulfing three pattern, forming a rebound, while the daily lifeline around 93000 remains a key resistance level.

Bitcoin's reference range for today:
Support levels: around 89500, around 87900, around 86700
Resistance levels: around 92000, around 93000
Ethereum's reference range for today:
Support levels: around 2980, around 2920, around 2870
Resistance levels: around 3180, around 3250 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

Finance Research Society～December 7, 2025

1. Bitcoin profit margins have fallen to a two-year low, and the market may be entering a "sell-off exhaustion" phase;
2. Harvard University holds more Bitcoin ETFs than Google stocks;
3. SEC Chairman: The entire financial system will operate on Bitcoin and crypto assets in the coming years
4. Whales are once again cycling loans to increase their holdings in AAVE, having been liquidated for 32,000 AAVE on "10.11"
5. CZ: The most important thing in the next 3-5 years will still be payments. It’s not just about on-chain transfers, but stablecoin payments that connect with traditional finance (Visa/Mastercard). The ideal future state is that people no longer mention the term "Web3" but use crypto payments as naturally as they use "Google".

Bitcoin's four-hour and daily charts have broken below the life line, and the daily chart is hovering near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, currently showing no breakout, with market activity low over the weekend. The daily chart is in a bearish downward trend, with small rebounds on the four-hour and hourly levels. The market is speculating on the favorable news regarding interest rate cuts, constantly hyping it up.

Bitcoin's reference for today's volatility range:
Support levels: around 89000, around 87200, around 86400
Resistance levels: around 90000, around 91500
Ethereum's reference for today's volatility range:
Support levels: around 3000, around 2935, around 2880
Resistance levels: around 3100, around 3180 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH #ETH走势分析

Financial Research Society - December 5, 2025

1. Announcement: At 23:00 tonight, the United States will announce the year-on-year core PCE price index for September, expected to be 2.9%
2. Bank of America: The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 0.75% in December, followed by an increase every six months
3. BGB is listed on South Korea's third-largest trading platform Coinone
4. Aster has officially destroyed 77.86 million ASTER bought back from S3
5. Bitmine may have increased its holdings by 41,946 ETH again 5 hours ago

Bitcoin rebounded to around the daily life line of 94,000 and then fell back, which is quite critical. As long as there is no significant breakout, a pullback will occur in four hours. Currently, the four-hour moving average has turned, and MACD has formed a death cross, so pay attention to whether the four-hour life line around 91,000 can hold effectively during the downward pullback.
Ethereum rebounded to around the life line of 3,200 and then fell back. The hype around Ethereum's upgrade is strong, and the rebound is still relatively robust, but the four-hour and one-hour levels are weakening, indicating a minor cyclical adjustment.

Bitcoin's reference fluctuation range for today:
Support levels: around 91,000, around 89,400, around 88,500
Resistance levels: around 93,300, around 94,000
Ethereum's reference fluctuation range for today:
Support levels: around 3,060, around 2,968, around 2,910
Resistance levels: around 3,200, around 3,260

Yinuo believes that from an indicator perspective, this is merely a daily level rebound and has not formed a reversal. For short-term operational positions, when such a rebound reaches the resistance level near the daily life line, it is essential to reduce positions and take profits to ensure safety! #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

Project Progress
1. Bitmine reportedly purchased 41,946 ETH again 5 hours ago, worth approximately $130 million.
2. GlobeNewswire: AlphaTON Capital announced it has exited the SEC "baby shelf" financing restrictions and submitted a $420.69 million shelf registration statement, intended to expand the GPU computing infrastructure supporting the Telegram Cocoon AI network and acquire revenue-generating companies within the Telegram ecosystem.
3. PANews: On-chain data shows that the Aster team will repurchase $80 million in tokens from their wallet to execute on-chain burn operations.
4. Base launched a cross-chain bridge to Solana, achieving two-way asset interoperability.
5. Bloomberg: Polymarket is recruiting new employees to form an internal market-making team.
6. UAE's Mashreq Capital has included Bitcoin ETF in its new diversified asset fund.
7. The official website of Meme coin PEPE has been attacked and is currently redirecting users to malicious links.
8. The Bitcoin-native interoperability protocol Portal to Bitcoin has completed a $25 million financing round, led by JTSA Global.
9. Aave Labs has expanded its collaboration with CoW Swap, integrating the DEX aggregator's solver network into all of Aave's Swap functionalities and launching flash loan products specifically designed for intent-based infrastructure.
10. Matrixport has withdrawn a total of 2,805 BTC from Binance in the last 8 hours, worth $260 million. #加密市场观察

The decentralized trading platform Aster released its roadmap for the first half of 2026, focusing on strengthening infrastructure, token utility, and the three core engines of ecosystem and community.

In early December 2025, Aster will launch the 'Shield Mode' for private high-leverage trading and time-weighted average price (TWAP) strategy orders; in mid-December, upgrades for real-world assets (RWA) will expand the depth and breadth of the perpetual contract market for stocks; by the end of December, the Aster Chain testnet will be open for community testing. Entering 2026, the first quarter will see the launch of the Aster Chain mainnet, the release of Aster code for developers, and the opening of fiat deposit and withdrawal channels; in the second quarter, ASTER token staking will be initiated, on-chain governance will be implemented, and intelligent fund tools that follow top traders will be introduced. $ASTER