In the last 24 hours, a total of 112,821 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $421 million! At this moment, the market is retreating, and we can just follow the BTC trend. During extreme market conditions, focus on BTC, and when it's slightly stable, turn to ETH. The morning drop was significant, so wait for key levels to trigger and confirm support before taking positions. Do not chase shorts at this moment!
BTC
BTC opened high with upper and lower shadows, mainly fluctuating downwards during the day. It has tested the 94000 position three times without success. The trend boundary confirmation failed to break through, and yesterday's interest rate cut stimulus only resulted in a single 15-minute candle rise. We should look for a period of pullback now, and for spot positions, it’s best to wait for the next high-odds opportunity.
1) The support zone below is between 83700-86600, and BTC's current price is around 90,000. First, look for a pullback to around 86600; there will be a rebound here.
2) The hourly level still shows a bullish trend with higher lows being continuously established. If BTC breaks below the previous low on the hourly chart, it will break this bullish structure and may test the previous low again.
ETH
ETH also surged after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and Powell's speech at the FOMC meeting, but as good news was fully digested and bad news began, ETH quickly fell back. In the morning, four solid bearish candles brought Ethereum back to 3200 points.
ETH has a trend line and support resonance at 3146; based on the current market conditions, ETH has not fully corrected and has further correction risks. Wait on the right side for a drop below 3146 and then a pullback to go long and catch a rebound, with a stop loss at 3067 and targets at 3225 and 3285.
Altcoins
Trash altcoins; buying altcoins is like being a dog. Don’t wait for interest rates to drop before cutting losses! The restart of the bull market has very limited momentum, and next year's bear market will be tough!
Liquidity is currently very poor, the crypto market is weak, and the dot plot shows only one rate cut next year. The Bank of Japan will cut rates on December 18, so try to dollar-cost average into shorts at resistance levels, where the win rate is higher.
LUNA
LUNA has started to make a dead cat bounce; it seems the current market is really starting to stir. Wait for a good position to short LUNA; LUNA's final outcome is just going back from where it came!
$MERL
Currently, the main trend is bearish; do not rush to catch the bottom in the short term. Over the past month, it has been pushed down three times when it approached 0.5, with each high being lower than the previous one, and the strength of the rebound is getting weaker, forming a typical descending channel structure where selling pressure is evidently dominant. I personally view the area around 0.20~0.22 as a key observation point for three reasons:
1. The project's early costs are basically falling within this range; if it drops here, there is a high probability of bottom support action (not necessarily a hard pull, but at least it won't be allowed to break through);
2. The psychological defense line of a large number of retail investors is also concentrated here, and defending it may form support; breaking it easily triggers panic selling;
3. From a trend perspective, this is the watershed for whether the bears can continue to exert force.
The current trend is still dominated by bears. Before confirming stabilization at 0.20~0.22, it is better to remain on the sidelines or follow the shorts; cash is king, and don’t rush to stand on the wrong side.
SEI
SEI's price is still at a low point. There’s no shortage of money on-chain; people trade and work on projects every day, which is clearly not the kind of short-lived chain that reveals its true face as soon as the activity stops. In addition, the public chain is working on its ecosystem, and traditional institutions are experimenting with ETPs and ETFs, pushing $SEI into various compliant channels.
The current price is oscillating in the mid-range. If your mindset is to look at it for one or two years, you can definitely buy slowly according to your position. Don’t expect to catch the absolute low; just consider it as reserving a spot for future institutional increments and ecological expansion! It's a long-term mark, and you can lay low some!
Market conditions are changing rapidly; specific entry and exit points should be decided based on real-time data. Just follow the trend! No matter how high your accuracy is, please strictly execute profit-taking and stop-loss strategies! That's all for today! Follow me, and don't get lost!
