加密鱼右右

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这行情还能让散户过个好年吗？
最近都是来回砸，机构控盘严重
不在是以前那种单边行情了
机构一砸一买，价格不变就是你仓位没了
麻吉这多头但凡做空 $Eth 早发财了
如果以太有效跌破2900没有快速收回
则下看2716-2778的多头防守
如果能出现强力针探，扫掉下方流动性
后拉回来，就可以直接短线追多
早上假跌破2892，快速收回
上午多单的朋友，注意
‼️
2974点位防守
2970附近多单可以直接走，不能格局
熊市最大的错觉就是下跌是有限的
你买luna，ftt 你试试
ftx咋崩盘的？SBF也认为下跌有限
巨鲸买了，市场没有共识
没人抬轿子怎么办？
自己认为自己是机构就有优势了吗
如果钱多三箭资本就不会破产了
那就没有雷曼了

下跌过程中出现这种震荡向上的旗形，最后大多数都是熊旗，目前已经跌破得到确认。
接下来应该要震荡向下走一段了，至于能跌到什么位置，我也不去猜测，还是耐心等着跌到差不多的位置，分批去抄底就行了，吃个几十个点的反弹还是可以的

BTC Market Analysis 12/16
In the current market, liquidity is weakening, and the effectiveness of technical indicators is also decreasing. Every day, we only wait for the few candlesticks after the U.S. stock market opens, and the rest is just wasted time.
【4-Hour Level】
After yesterday's drop, we have finally reached a bullish OB on the 4-hour chart. This is a low point from two previous tests, providing an opportunity for support to trigger a rebound.
The key support level is at 83700.
1) If it doesn't break here, there may be a rebound, with resistance at 89000.
2) If 83700 is broken, long positions need to stop loss, and there will be temporarily no long position opportunities.

Three methods to lock in the bottom points of this month's big BTC pullback:

A. Currently within the 20-day adjustment range of the 45-day line adjustment cycle, near the bottom Bollinger band at 80085. The 20-day EMA is 52, corresponding to a price of 74965. Therefore, after breaking 80k, lock in the bottom: 74965

B. The 45-day line level has a death cross, with the middle Bollinger band at 77250.

C. The 0.618 pullback position at the 45-day line level:

126208-48888 = 77,320

77320*0.618 = 47,783.76

126208-47783 = 78,425 (the golden ratio pullback point)

PS: Adding the lowest point of April 7 this year, 74666, which is very close to the 20-day EMA of 52. Therefore, it can be predicted that the bottom range in December can be locked in at these three points: 78425, 77250, 74666.

From the daily level, RATS has been stronger than many coins recently, with three consecutive bullish candles. The overall trend shows a W-bottom pattern, and the MACD has recently diverged and is above the zero line, with the trend continuously strengthening. In the future, it will go back to fill the upper wicks and then challenge the resistance level of 0.00005. In the short term, if it can still pull back to around 0.000035, those who like to trade in waves can buy the dip in spot, and take profit near 0.00005 before selling.

How to establish a trading framework?

📌
1. Determine market structure
Confirm whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
Identify key points such as HH, HL, LH, LL.

📌
2. Identify liquidity pools
Find the buyers and sellers' liquidity pools in the market.
Mark potential high and low points that may be cleared.

📌
3. Look for order blocks
Identify the possible order areas for institutions.
Look for entry opportunities near the order blocks.

📌
4. Use FVG to confirm entry points
Confirm whether the price tests the imbalance area.
Look for reversal signals after the retest is complete.

📌
5. Set stop loss and target levels
Place the stop loss outside the liquidity sweep area.
Set the target level near the next liquidity pool.

Shanzhai Coin Research
$ela
1. Yilaiyun halving officially completed: entering a low inflation era
2. Co-founder Han Feng went to the United States to seek resources and assistance, aiming to enhance market making
3. Leveraging the momentum of ELA on Coinbase, exploring the promotion of DAT (Digital Asset Token) compliance listing in the United States

很多新进场的散户其实根本不理解山寨币的本质。

因为没有经历过2020-2022年，

很多新进场的散户对 “山寨季是什么” 完全没有概念。

最直观的就是，在24-25年入场的散户除了只购买BTC、ETH之外的稳定性投资者，

大部分高风险偏好玩家都无法区分MEME市场和山寨市场的区别。

高昂的学习成本也让新进场的散户望而却步，实际上2021年的动物世界也一度压过了山寨市场。

山寨币的逻辑和 $BTC 、 $ETH 完全不同，它更像一个项目的可交易利益凭证，由项目方发行出来的分蛋糕工具。

山寨币在经济属性上更接近早期项目的股权，但又不等于股权，可以类比成一个带解锁与通胀的看涨期权或者彩票，当然也是项目方拿来购买增长和共识的激励预算。

但在绝大部分新进场的散户眼中，只有BTC和其他（能翻十倍）的项目，这也就导致了山寨市场在机构和散户两边都没有讨到好处。

加密市场表现最好的2024全年，数字资产投资产品合计净流入 $44.2B，其中 BTC $38.0B，ETH即使表现不佳但也有 $4.8B，而SOL作为第二大公链，流入只有 $69M，除ETH以外的其他山寨合计也只有 $813M。

就目前能吃到机构增量的代币除了 $SOL ， $LINK 这种绑定ETF的项目之外，其他在整个2025年都没有出现过短时间的大额机构净流入，即使是 $ZEC 也是持续的投机资金进行的累积性拉高。

也有人说山寨季一般在收尾阶段，现在我们依旧处于牛市中的调整期，当然现在疲软的态势很难保证山寨项目能够稳定留存到下一个市场阶段。

Recently, the market has been fluctuating repeatedly. When you feel it is about to go down, it comes back up; when you feel it is about to rise, it comes back down. This back-and-forth continues!
This is currently a typical triangular fluctuation area, with the fluctuation range becoming smaller and smaller. Next week, with the yen interest rate hike, it is expected to break out of this range, with the upper side around 94000 and the lower side around 88000. This range is worth paying attention to.
Recently, we are still mainly cautious with our trading strategy, and there has not been a one-sided market!

You need to think clearly about whose money you want to earn.

1. 10k～500k is earned through various groups, community mutual dissemination, and the money from lead orders.
2. 500k～3m is earned through several KOLs disseminating information to each other and the money from FOMO following lead orders.
3. 3m～10m is earned through major KOLs collectively promoting and the money from short-term boosts by small investors. 4. 10m～50m is earned through strong endorsements from celebrities, collective powerful promotions by KOLs, and endorsements from official institutions, at this point, you earn money from the timeliness of information dissemination.
5. 50m～300m, a well-formed community with a strong consensus in a short period, constantly rising FOMO emotions, with major market makers already in operation. You need to earn money before significant good news from exchanges is realized.
6. 300m～2b, you need to earn money from the secondary market and outsiders.
7. 2b～10b, this is already the area where major institutional market makers are mutually taking over, and at this point, it depends on your level of insight.
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Cryptocurrency retail investors face a significant dilemma during the bull market, and this dilemma has grown to the point where it cannot simply be summarized as losing money; it is a sense of powerlessness from the bottom up. The dilemma lies in the fact that many retail investors have not made the wrong call in the big picture, yet they are unable to make money. Many retail investors are actually correct in direction, optimistic about BTC / ETH, confident in several mainstream public chains, and bullish on long-term tracks like AI / L2 / DeFi. However, when BTC, SOL, and the mainstream market have risen significantly, their account balances not only remain unchanged but may even shrink. Clearly, there is no missed opportunity in the market, yet almost no profits are being made. Retail investors' opponents now include VCs, teams, and bots, as well as systematic profit-taking studios. Early rounds, market makers, and teams have left retail investors out in the cold; on the trading side, there are quantitative market-making strategies and MEV bots, and by the time retail investors place their orders, they are already at the end of the information and speed chain. In the past, one could survive on a crude rhythm, with halving leading to a BTC bull market, then to altcoin season and a slow correction. The experience of most retail investors in this round is basically that, although they are part of a bull market, their overall assets are not much different from a bear market. Thus, retail investors who are still holding on are generally in a very awkward middle state: - unwilling to only hold BTC or ETH - lacking the time and energy to become a scientist with algorithms - not wanting to be pure gamblers betting on VCs and MEME coins. Today's cryptocurrency retail investors urgently need a successful turnaround, to find the next BTC or ETH consensus, or simply to hug BTC tightly and ignore other wealth effects.

Regarding whether to focus on or not on Double Saints, the current situation is simply unsolvable.
Right now, BSC players are both shouting "go Double Saint-less"
while also keeping an eye on Double Saints for unexpected traffic influx.
This is just the daily routine of BSC.

Without Double Saints, does BSC have no memes?
Shut up, it's all about people wanting to make quick money.
There are plenty of independent memes, but how many communities can actually promote them?

Want a community? Want consensus? Want development? Want independence?
Sounds good, but there are pitifully few who actually do it.
You should take a good look at what the current BSC community is like.
The structure of BSC's community is: 90% is a chaotic mess, 10% is barely decent, and only a very small number can really sustain themselves, and even then, the price isn't low.
However, Bee Dog is indeed an exception (very perplexing
🤣
).
Back to the point, if your community can't get off the ground, how do you expect the market to actively come and pick up your trades?
Isn't this dreaming?
You lie around every day waiting for your wallet to drop BNB.

To truly break away from Double Saints, only one thing is needed.
Let more memes have normal communities and positive cycles, with people seriously working.
But everyone wants to make quick money and doesn't want to build slowly; it's very restless.
So the easiest path is to continue focusing on the Double Saint angle.
Everyone thinks this way, and the ecosystem will of course never escape the vicious cycle.

Slow down, build seriously, and exchange time for results.
The problem with BSC has never been "lack of independent memes"; it is "the lack of people willing to turn independent memes into reality"; it is "too many various profit-hungry Kol's".

Since coming into contact with meme土狗, I have always been on sol, so I have been unable to understand the various narrative angles of bsc this year, scoffing at them.

Later in October, I also came to understand that essentially, sol and Bsc are quite similar. Some say bsc is the Shandong chain, and most of sol's narratives actually rely on web2 fermenting heat and celebrities like Musk.

Bsc also has very good memes, such as Haki Mi and vulgar penguins.

Bsc has scientists and a lot of chips. But sol also had many opening snipes last year, and there have always been many bundled accounts that directly hit you at the set point.

You just don’t know who cut you, but in bsc you can know who cut you.

Everyone comes to play memes on the chain to make money and speculate, so be more open-minded. If you really don't understand the game, just take fewer risks and rest more. Adjust your state and make your move in the next phase.

Reduce complaints; the chain is always about survival of the fittest.
We are just small retail investors, with no rights to choose.

From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin's current trend is very similar to the trend at the end of January 2022.
1. Both are double top patterns.
2. The candlesticks have both broken the bull-bear dividing line MA60, and are in a suspended state between MA120 and MA60.
3. The MACD indicator has both dropped below the zero line.

Therefore, in the coming month, BTC will continue to experience a sideways market, with a fluctuation range of 80000—100000. If it can hold the previous low of 80000 during a second retest in the next week or two, it will repeatedly attempt to challenge the 100000 mark.

BTC

The continuous decline in the hourly chart during the early morning has brought the price back to the bearish side of this level, and there is also a new pattern of resistance forming above. Currently, there are no ideal buying points from a technical perspective at the current price and above, and after fluctuating within the small range of 89480~90680, only downward orders are left.

Summary: The structure of the daily decline remains unchanged, and the smaller timeframes are generally on the bearish side. Before a signal of a large bullish candle appears, the main strategy is to focus on low long positions, with reference points as follows:

Short-term support at 87910~86370, second support at 83310~82140, and 79666 and 70500 are two important support points in the next large-scale retracement process (key points). The short-term resistance is within the current price range, with the structural divergence area at 98580~99168.