The new agreement protocol signed between the United States under Donald Trump and Iran, following a three and a half month standoff; while touted as a major win by the American president, some suggest this deal is significantly more 'wobbly' and less binding than the historic Vienna agreement of 2015 signed between Barack Obama’s administration and Iran.
Key points of the analysis:
• A deal with misleading appearances: While Iran officially commits to not seeking nuclear weapons, this text merely reiterates promises already made in 2015, before Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the initial agreement in 2018.
• Weakness in the nuclear aspect: Unlike the 2015 document, which spanned a hundred pages with rigorous oversight mechanisms, the new agreement lacks precision.
• The 2015 agreement limited uranium enrichment to 3.67% (sufficient for civilian use) compared to 90% for a bomb. The new text does not set any threshold for new production.
• Management of existing stocks: The current agreement leaves the fate of uranium already enriched to 60% hanging. In 2015, Iran was immediately required to dilute half of it.
• Temporary status quo: While awaiting potential future negotiations, Iran keeps its program as is, while the U.S. commits to not imposing new sanctions or deploying more forces in the region.
For now, nothing guarantees these discussions will lead anywhere in the next two months, knowing that the 2015 agreement took over 20 months of intense negotiations. But this time around, it's a different administration, and I hope they can reach an agreement in the shortest time possible.
$CL
Key points of the analysis:
• A deal with misleading appearances: While Iran officially commits to not seeking nuclear weapons, this text merely reiterates promises already made in 2015, before Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the initial agreement in 2018.
• Weakness in the nuclear aspect: Unlike the 2015 document, which spanned a hundred pages with rigorous oversight mechanisms, the new agreement lacks precision.
• The 2015 agreement limited uranium enrichment to 3.67% (sufficient for civilian use) compared to 90% for a bomb. The new text does not set any threshold for new production.
• Management of existing stocks: The current agreement leaves the fate of uranium already enriched to 60% hanging. In 2015, Iran was immediately required to dilute half of it.
• Temporary status quo: While awaiting potential future negotiations, Iran keeps its program as is, while the U.S. commits to not imposing new sanctions or deploying more forces in the region.
For now, nothing guarantees these discussions will lead anywhere in the next two months, knowing that the 2015 agreement took over 20 months of intense negotiations. But this time around, it's a different administration, and I hope they can reach an agreement in the shortest time possible.
$CL