✏ #CPIWatch: Inflation's Pulse in December 2025
#CPIWatch is heating up ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' November 2025 CPI release on December 18 (rescheduled from Dec 10), with economists forecasting a 0.3% monthly rise and 2.8% year-over-year headline inflation—up slightly from November's 2.7%, driven by energy surges (gas +4.4%) and holiday discounting reversals, while core CPI (ex-food/energy) holds steady at 3.3% amid sticky housing costs (shelter up 0.4%).
This data drop, at 8:30 AM ET, could sway Fed rate expectations for 2026 (75% odds for two cuts), with softer readings boosting stocks/crypto (BTC eyeing $100K on liquidity hopes) and hotter numbers fueling tariff fears under Trump 2.0—markets are pricing in stalled disinflation, but reversals in used cars and apparel might ease pressures.
For investors, watch for PCE alignment (nowcast at 2.85% YoY) as it guides policy; a surprise below 2.8% could spark risk-on rallies, while 3%+ might delay easing and hit bonds. 📈💸
📚 CPI Forecast Snapshot
| Metric | Nov 2025 Actual | Dec 2025 Nowcast | Expected Impact |
| -------------------- | --------------- | ---------------- | -------------------------- |
| Headline CPI (MoM) | +0.32% | +0.29% | Mild uptick from energy |
| Core CPI (YoY) | +2.95% | +2.99% | Sticky, watch housing |
| Overall YoY | +2.7% | +2.92% | Fed cut catalyst if <2.8% |
