The Strait of Hormuz is back in business, and tanker traffic is resuming, which is a major bullish sign for global energy and inflation. However, there are still uncertainties regarding Iran's new transit regulations and long-term navigation. If we return to pre-war levels, the global economy and oil supply will see a significant boost.
On the macro side, emerging market central banks are stacking up on gold: over the last three years, Asian and Eastern European countries have averaged about +12 tons of gold purchases monthly, while Africa has added +2 tons. What are they hedging against? It could be simple asset diversification, or they might be genuinely hedging against certain uncertainties. $BTC is making moves too, as Franklin Templeton has applied to automatically allocate a portion of stock dividends to a Bitcoin ETF. This “stocks + 5% Bitcoin” combo opens a low-friction door for traditional funds.
Risk warning: Fed Chair Warsh has mentioned rate hikes again, and the liquidity index has turned negative for the first time since 2021. JPMorgan is warning of a potential rebalancing sell-off wave, estimated at around $165 billion. Tech earnings remain strong, but the market narrative has flipped from “preparing for rate cuts” to “possible rate hikes,” and this expectation gap can be quite damaging.
NFA DYOR
Tags: #宏观 #BTC #黄金 #美联储 #geopolitics
On the macro side, emerging market central banks are stacking up on gold: over the last three years, Asian and Eastern European countries have averaged about +12 tons of gold purchases monthly, while Africa has added +2 tons. What are they hedging against? It could be simple asset diversification, or they might be genuinely hedging against certain uncertainties. $BTC is making moves too, as Franklin Templeton has applied to automatically allocate a portion of stock dividends to a Bitcoin ETF. This “stocks + 5% Bitcoin” combo opens a low-friction door for traditional funds.
Risk warning: Fed Chair Warsh has mentioned rate hikes again, and the liquidity index has turned negative for the first time since 2021. JPMorgan is warning of a potential rebalancing sell-off wave, estimated at around $165 billion. Tech earnings remain strong, but the market narrative has flipped from “preparing for rate cuts” to “possible rate hikes,” and this expectation gap can be quite damaging.
NFA DYOR
Tags: #宏观 #BTC #黄金 #美联储 #geopolitics