7.8 Gold Evening Analysis: Cliff-like plunge breaks support, gold bears dominate tonight, beware of low-level rebound recovery
News side
Gold prices saw a sharp intraday decline, with a one-sided weakening on the chart and a drop of more than 1%. Overall market risk aversion cooled significantly, previous long positions took profits and exited in concentration, and capital leaving the market pressured gold to continue falling. Institutional expectations for earlier long positions became divided, with the market disagreeing on the subsequent upside potential. Long holdings were significantly reduced, and short-term capital outflows directly drove gold lower.
U.S. stock futures weakened slightly before the open but failed to provide safe-haven buying support for gold. Commodities were also under pressure, overall market risk appetite recovered, weakening gold’s value-preservation buying power, and multiple bearish factors combined to drive a sharp pullback.
Technical side
Price directly broke below the lower Bollinger Band, and the lower support was effectively pierced. The Bollinger channel continued to open downward, confirming a short-term bearish trend. The middle band at 4111 has turned into strong resistance, and the upper band at 4170 forms distant heavy pressure. Continuous large bearish candles pushed prices lower in a one-way move, with the intraday high at 4133 and low at 4040. Highs and lows both moved down, bullish rebounds lacked strength, and each small rebound was met with bearish selling pressure. Current prices are in the lower range of this round of decline. All three KDJ lines have entered oversold territory, with the J value falling deeply. There is a short-term technical need for a rebound repair due to the oversold condition, but the larger bearish trend remains unchanged; any rebound should only be viewed as a corrective move.
Trading strategy
If price rebounds to 4070-4090, consider building short positions in batches, targeting 4050-4030; if broken, look toward the 4000 level
If price pulls back to the 4030-4050 support area, consider light long positions to play an oversold rebound, targeting 4070
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