$BTC Market Analysis—— 12.12

Still continuing the previous viewpoint to discuss further

1) From the chart, it is very clear that it is currently testing 94 continuously.

There has been a lot of selling pressure directly at 94-95.

After being rejected at 94, each pullback is higher than the previous low.

Moreover, this process is all about sharp rises and falls.

2) Why is this being manipulated?

First: 94-95 forms a resistance, where liquidity is being built. I believe many people will take positions here at 94-95, with stop losses at 95, which has a high risk-reward ratio.

Naturally, a large amount of short liquidity accumulates here.

Once it breaks through 95, a lot of short stop losses will turn into fuel pushing the price up.

Second: Each pullback has a higher low.

This still reflects a structural view; I believe this is a very healthy upward oscillation.

Currently, it hasn't dropped below the previous low, avoiding a more troubling range oscillation.

It also indicates that smart money is protecting its cost—— around the average cost of 89.

Third: Why is it oscillating—sharp rises and falls?

Two aspects: First, the recent liquidity is indeed very poor; since the 10.11 event, it has worsened. This decline is not only due to a reduction in participating funds but also because market makers are exiting.

With poor liquidity, manipulation becomes very easy.

Additionally: Making money by washing out positions through oscillation, causing retail investors to chase highs and sell lows, profiting from stop losses.

Many recent market movements, in my opinion, are sometimes just to trigger liquidations, with many spikes.

3) Why am I biased towards an upward movement?

First, looking at the large order statistics from 11.19 to the present, this is where buying is happening. The average buying price is at 89.

This explains why there is a continuous pullback to 89, indicating a process of accumulation.

Second: Currently, the macro bad news is almost over in the short term; as long as there are no recession expectations, things definitely won't get worse.

Moreover, even if bad news comes out, it will likely rise first before falling, right?

At least they need to sell the goods they have first.

Third: Currently, there is selling pressure at 94-95, and as mentioned earlier, it is highly likely that a liquidity trap is being built here.

Once the smart money withdraws their short orders, it may instead push buying orders to trigger short liquidations, leading to a rise to 10.

In summary, I believe if it oscillates above 89, then I am biased towards an upward movement.

The more times 94 is tested, the greater the probability of a breakout. #BTC