Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown fluctuations again. Every movement in global policies, actions from major players, and macroeconomic factors influences the market! Today, let's break down the key events in the next half month to prepare and avoid pitfalls👇
🌍 Global policy direction: Is regulation a sword of Damocles or a reassurance?
▫️ New actions from the US SEC: Results of compliance reviews for a major exchange are expected to be announced this week. If strict regulatory details are implemented, it may trigger short-term panic selling (referencing last year's FTX incident); conversely, if friendly signals are released, it could boost market confidence.
▫️ Countdown to the implementation of the EU MiCA legislation: Officially effective in mid-November, it clarifies the classification and trading rules for crypto assets. Compliant cryptocurrencies may see inflows, especially local EU projects.
🚀 Big player dynamics: Is Tesla/Musk coming again to 'promote products'?
▫️ Tesla's earnings report hides clues: Q3 earnings will be announced on November 8, and if the report mentions 'changes in Bitcoin holdings' or 'the combination of new energy business and blockchain', it may replicate the 2021 'Tesla buying Bitcoin' market.
▫️ Traditional financial institutions entering the market: It is reported that investment banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are testing new tools for cryptocurrency derivatives. If the news is true, institutional funds may accelerate inflow into mainstream coins.
📊 Macroeconomics: Federal Reserve interest rate hikes vs. non-farm data, who dominates the coin price?
▫️ November Federal Reserve interest rate decision: The market expects to maintain high rates, but if Powell's speech signals the 'end of the interest rate hike cycle', a weaker dollar will benefit risk assets (Bitcoin has historically been negatively correlated with the dollar index).
▫️ Non-farm payroll data: To be released this Friday, if the unemployment rate rises and wage growth slows, it may indicate an economic slowdown, and the market bets on an increased probability of interest rate cuts, which could lead cryptocurrencies to react in advance.
💡 Strategies for ordinary people: 3 key operational suggestions
1️⃣ Position management: Cash is king! Reserve 50% of your position, and accumulate mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) in batches during pullbacks, avoiding full positions chasing highs.
2️⃣ Pay attention to time nodes: November 5 (SEC review), 8 (Tesla earnings), 10 (non-farm data), 15 (MiCA effective), these days may see volatility soar!
3️⃣ Beware of 'black swans': Geopolitical conflicts (such as the situation in the Middle East) and exchange security incidents may occur suddenly, set stop-loss and take-profit.
📈 Summary: Key logic for the next half month
In the short term, look at policy and event-driven factors, volatility will increase but opportunities are hidden; in the long term, we still need to return to the implementation of blockchain technology (like Layer 2 scaling, AI + Web3 integration). Remember: When others are greedy, I am fearful; when others are fearful, I am greedy — but the premise is to do your homework!
💬 What event do you think will have the biggest impact next week? Let's chat in the comments～
