The Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut this year has landed, but the crypto market has not seen the expected surge. BTC returned to the $90,000 mark during the Asian session on December 14, still stagnating in the $88,000 to $94,000 range. On one side, gold has soared 61% this year, while on the other, Bitcoin has remained in slight losses since the beginning of the year, leading the crypto circle to collectively enter a wait-and-see mode. However, beneath the calm, a new industry logic is quietly reconstructing.
This 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' market trend had long been foreshadowed: the expectation of rate cuts had already been digested by the market, and the internal divisions within the Fed regarding future policies have made funds hesitant to take action. However, on-chain data exposed the true sentiment of the market: BTC whales (addresses holding 10 to 10,000 coins) that had been selling for nearly two months suddenly began to accumulate at the end of November, while small retail addresses (holding less than 0.01 BTC) have consistently held their ground since the October peak, even buying more as prices fell. The divergence between whales bottoming out and retail investors holding back suggests that market consensus has not collapsed.
The industry's dynamics are as contrasting as ice and fire. Clear signals have come from the regulatory side: the U.S. SEC chairman publicly expresses support for on-chain financial markets, opening the green light for innovation; meanwhile, TerraformLabs co-founder Do Kwon has been sentenced to 15 years for a $40 billion fraud case, highlighting that compliance boundaries should not be crossed. Institutional attitudes are notably divided: Vanguard has opened Bitcoin spot ETF trading but compared it to 'digital Labubu,' questioning its investment value; on the other hand, Bank of America suggests high-net-worth clients allocate 1-4% to digital assets, voting with real money.
New movements on the track are worth paying attention to: the decentralized AI network Bittensor (TAO) will see its first halving on December 14, with daily token issuance cut in half. The combination of AI and crypto continues to heat up under policy catalysis; the X402 protocol led by Coinbase has completed its V2 upgrade, aiming for a unified on-chain payment interface to pave the way for new scenarios like AI agent payments. The improvement of these infrastructures is replacing mere macro liquidity, becoming the new core driving force of the market.
The hottest debate now is whether Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, which has lasted for years, has already become ineffective. With the increasing proportion of institutional funds and the gradual clarity of the regulatory framework, the market is no longer simply guided by the logic that halving will lead to price increases. Investors' focus is shifting towards more tangible directions—RWA real asset tokenization solves the pain point of crypto assets detaching from the physical world, on-chain payment infrastructure connects practical scenarios, and AI + crypto opens up a new track. The end of the old cycle may very well be the starting point for a new narrative.
The current sideways market feels more like a deep breath before gathering strength. Do you think the next market cycle will be ignited by RWA, AI crypto, or on-chain payments? Has Bitcoin's four-year cycle truly become ineffective?
