I. Core Background: Changes in the Global Safe Asset System
1. Breaking Traditional Logic: The independence of the Federal Reserve is subject to political interference, and in April 2025, the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and US stocks will decline simultaneously, weakening the consensus that 'the US dollar = safe asset'
2. Shift to Diversity: Safe assets upgraded to a three-dimensional balance of 'credit, liquidity, political risk,' evolving into a composite model of multi-sovereign assets + gold + new payment infrastructure
3. Driving Factors: Weaponization of the US dollar (freezing of Russian reserves), doubts about US fiscal sustainability, central banks accelerating de-dollarization, and global central banks net purchasing over 1000 tons of gold for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024
II. Strategic Opportunities for the Renminbi
1. Periodic Advantage: After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Renminbi shows 'low beta' stable characteristics, with expanded trade settlement and currency swap scales (2024 CIPS transaction volume of 175 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%)
2. Increased Market Demand: 61% of central banks are considering allocating Renminbi assets, with the target allocation ratio for 10-year periods rising to 5.9%
III. Advancement Strategy: Pragmatic Path
1. Solidify the Foundation: Strengthen the liquidity of the national debt market, improve derivative tools, and establish a cross-border investor protection mechanism
2. Differentiated Layout
◦ Official Level: Build a reserve 'anchor currency' function
◦ Private Level: Optimize interconnection channels and lower allocation thresholds
◦ Trade Level: Expand the local currency settlement network relying on platforms like mBridge
3. Risk Prevention and Control: Establish a high-frequency monitoring system for cross-border funds and reserve counter-cyclical adjustment tools
IV. Core Positioning
The Renminbi does not need to replace the US dollar; the goal is to become an important complement to global safe assets
