I am Qi He. I just stared at the market, and a message popped up on my phone, sending a chill down my back. A giant whale dumped 2.46 million USD to short ZEC, with leverage maxed out at 3 times, and the short position is nearly 5.7 million USD. Meanwhile, the 1-hour candlestick chart in front of us is clearly showing an upward trend, with the price currently stuck at this key level of 405.7. Does it feel very fragmented to you? Don't worry, let me clarify it for you.
News:
At this time, that message is no longer news, but a translator for the 'market language.'
Why would a player who can mobilize millions of dollars choose to short heavily with 3 times leverage at this moment? Can’t he see this upward trend?
Of course he can see it. But his actions tell us: he thinks this wave of rise is just a 'flash in the pan', the market's last 'escape door' or 'trap to lure long positions' for retail investors. His willingness to leverage indicates he believes there is enough room for a sharp decline to cover his costs and risks.
The information and cognition of whales and ordinary retail investors are never on the same level. His massive short positions are like revealing a key card at the poker table.
Technical analysis:
The hourly chart is indeed rising, the next resistance level is 438. Many people must be thinking, 'If it goes up, I will make money!' But please shift your focus down, the two lines of MACD are all lying below the 0 axis and are still a dead cross, which may fall again at any time. A true strong trend requires MACD to be above the 0 axis. Its current position tells us: the bullish strength is very weak, and this wave of rise is not solid.
What should players do now?
If you already hold a position:
Friends in long positions, now is not the time to be stubborn. Treat the 438-440 area as a key point for reducing positions or observing exits. If it reaches there but can't rise and shows a long upper shadow, decisively take profits.
Friends in short positions, you need more patience. Wait for clear signals that the upward momentum has weakened significantly before considering adding.
Qi He's personal opinion:
My core judgment is: The probability of directly breaking 438 violently tonight is less than 30%. A greater possibility is that after testing the upper pressure, the momentum will weaken and turn down to seek support.
The first target is 390. If it can't hold here, the sentiment may panic and test lower levels around 353 or even 300, to digest the short expectations of the whales.
I am Qi He, neither bullish nor bearish, only respecting the market and the smart money on-chain. If you find this kind of peeling away and straightforward analysis useful, and you don't want to swim naked in the waves stirred up by the whales, click to follow. In the upcoming tough battles, I will accompany you to understand the market and make sound decisions.
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