Release date: 2025.12.15 Author: Qingfeng btc (20-year financial veteran)
Brothers, I am Qingfeng.
Today's market is nerve-wracking. Bitcoin is swaying around $90,200 like walking a tightrope, and neither side dares to take action.
Why? Because everyone's eyes are fixed on the East — the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will announce its interest rate decision this Friday (December 19).
The current market is filled with discussions that 'the bear market is coming,' and many fans are asking me: 'Qingfeng, will Japan's interest rate hike crash the crypto market?'
As a veteran with 20 years of experience in the financial industry, today I won't talk to you about candlesticks; let's discuss the global financial game behind it. Understanding this will help you decide whether to hold or throw away the coins in your hand.
🌏 1. Market overview: The calm before the storm
As of the press time (December 15), mainstream cryptocurrencies are showing a shrinking fluctuation:
BTC: Currently at $90,190. Although it barely holds above the 90,000 mark, selling pressure above is heavy.
ETH: Currently at $3,085. The exchange rate continues to weaken, with a strong risk aversion sentiment.
Macroeconomic data: Polymarket shows that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has skyrocketed to 98%. This is almost a certain 'gray rhino' event.
🇯🇵 2. Why Japan's interest rate hike is a 'nightmare' for the crypto circle?
Many new investors do not understand the relationship between Japan's interest rate hikes and Bitcoin. The relationship is significant!
1. End the 'Yen Carry Trade'
In recent years, global institutions have been playing a game: borrowing zero-interest yen ➡️ converting to dollars ➡️ buying Bitcoin/US stocks. This is equivalent to 'empty-handedly catching a white wolf.'
But now, Japan is going to raise interest rates! Borrowing costs will increase, and the yen will appreciate. Institutions must sell Bitcoin to repay their debts.
Historical lessons: Recall March 2024 and January 2025, when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates twice, Bitcoin subsequently saw a deep correction of 20%-30%. This is the power of arbitrage capital retreating.
2. Liquidity 'double whammy'
Not only Japan is tightening, but the U.S. long-term bond yields are also at high levels. Global liquidity is facing a 'double drain.' For an asset like Bitcoin, which is extremely sensitive to liquidity, the short-term outlook is indeed bearish.
🐳 3. Institutional perspective: Will this time be different?
Although historical data is alarming, Qingfeng has discovered several different signals:
1. Expectations fully priced in
Unlike the 'surprise' interest rate hike in August 2024, the market has already digested the panic a month in advance this time.
On-chain data shows that net inflows to exchanges have surged in the past week, indicating that smart money has already reduced leverage in advance. When everyone is waiting for a crash, it often doesn't go deep.
2. Whales are hedging, not liquidating
I have monitored that while some short-term funds are retreating, addresses holding over 1000 BTC have not sold off in large quantities. On the contrary, they have built up a large number of hedging short positions in the derivatives market. This means the main force is just doing 'insurance', not 'exiting'.
3. The Fed's 'lifeline'
Don't forget, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is still in a rate-cutting cycle. The liquidity drained by Japan will ultimately be replenished by the U.S. water. In the short term, pay attention to Japan's situation, but in the long term, focus on the U.S.
💡 4. Qingfeng's operational strategy:
In facing the decision on 12.19, my suggestion is 'defensive counterattack':
Avoid high leverage on 'decision days': This Thursday and Friday (18-19), absolutely do not open high-leverage contracts! Regardless of the interest rate decision, a fluctuation of 5000 points is basic operation and can easily lead to a targeted explosion.
Set a limit order for the 'golden pit': If Bitcoin plummets to the $85,000 - $82,000 range due to panic after the decision is announced, it would be an excellent spot to buy. Remember, every panic pullback in a bull market is the main force giving away money.
Allocate defensive assets: At this time, some positions can be swapped for stablecoins like USDD or USDC and participate in high-yield financial products similar to Binance Wallet Yield+, allowing for both offensive and defensive strategies.
⚠️ Veteran's conclusion:
Japan's interest rate hike is a short-term pain, not the end of the bull market.
The current fluctuations are cleaning out speculators who borrowed money to trade cryptocurrencies. Once this batch of unstable holdings is cleared out, Bitcoin can take off and aim for $100,000.
Maintain a stable mindset, don't fall before the dawn of 12.19.
I am Qingfeng BTC, follow me to navigate through bull and bear markets, and understand the institutions' hidden cards.
(If you find this helpful, please like and share, and let me know in the comments: Do you think it will drop below 85,000 on Friday?)
