Release date: 2025.12.17
Author: Qingfeng BTC (20-year financial veteran)
Brothers, I am Qingfeng.
Today is December 17, less than 48 hours until the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision on Friday.
The current square is divided into two factions:
Optimists (bulls): Shouting 'the bad news is all out, now it's good news,' the Fed is cutting rates, what's the point of Japan raising rates?
Pessimists (bears): Shivering, believing Bitcoin will drop below 80,000, replaying the '8.5 disaster.'
As a veteran who has been in the financial market for 20 years, I want to douse cold water on those blindly optimistic: you seriously underestimate the destructive reversal of 'yen carry trades.'
Today, the gentle breeze does not discuss K-line, taking you through a review of the three historical incidents of yen interest rate hikes/tightening that caused disasters in the cryptocurrency market, using bloody data to tell you why Friday may be a 'life-or-death situation.'
📉 1. History does not lie: When the yen moves, the world shakes.
Why is the Bank of Japan called the 'anchor of global asset pricing'? Because for the past 20 years, institutions around the world have borrowed cheap yen to buy Bitcoin and US stocks. Once the yen becomes expensive, this funding chain will be instantly severed.
1. Disaster One: August 5, 2024 ('Black Monday')
Background: The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates to 0.25%.
Impact: Global yen arbitrage trading is crazily liquidating positions.
Cryptocurrency market performance: BTC plummeted from over $60,000 to $49,000 in two days, a drop of nearly 20%; ETH was halved in a single day.
Lesson: The market at that time also thought 'the interest rate hike would be very small,' but the resulting liquidity dry-up led to a stampede-style crash.
2. Disaster Two: March 2024 (end of negative interest rates)
Background: Japan has ended its eight-year era of negative interest rates.
Cryptocurrency market performance: BTC declined from high levels in the week before the news hit, followed by a single-day 10% 'guillotine'.
Lesson: The market often starts to hedge a week in advance, which is the 'silent decline' we are currently experiencing.
3. Disaster Three: January 2025 (the flash crash at the beginning of the year)
Background: It was merely a 'hawkish speech' by Ueda and Nakao, indicating tightening.
Cryptocurrency market performance: The recently rebounding market is once again pressed down, with contract longs liquidating $800 million.
Gentle Breeze's viewpoint:
Don't comfort yourself with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve controls the 'water level', while the Bank of Japan controls the 'water source'. If the water source is cut off (yen borrowing costs rise), it doesn't matter how high the water level is.
📊 2. Current market situation: The 'eye of the storm' in the tug of war between bulls and bears
As of the time of writing (the evening of December 17), the market is experiencing a dead silence before the storm:
BTC: Currently at $86,400. Although there was a rebound after the spike to $85,800 last night, the recovery is extremely weak, and trading volume has shrunk. This indicates that the main funds are observing and dare not enter the market.
ETH: Currently at $3,040. It has already broken through the key neckline at $3,050. If negative news hits on Friday, $2,800 is likely to be the target.
Fear index: Plummeted to 35 (panic), retail investors have become frightened birds.
⚔️ 3. Future 48-hour bullish and bearish simulation: How to trade?
This is what everyone is most concerned about. Based on historical data and the current depth of the market, Gentle Breeze gives an exclusive prediction for the next two days:
Stage One: Wednesday evening - Thursday evening (false actions to lure in buyers)
Prediction: The dealer will use the market's shrinking volume to induce a slight rebound, pulling the price back to the $88,000 - $89,000 range, making retail investors think it is 'stable.'
Strategy: Short on rallies (light positions). As long as it doesn't stabilize above $90,000, all rebounds are just escape waves.
Stage Two: Friday noon (decision moment)
Prediction: At noon on 12.19 (Beijing time), once an interest rate hike is announced (even if it's a slight 15bp):
First reaction: Robots (Algo) will instantly crash the market, and BTC may spike to $82,000 - $80,000 in an instant.
Second reaction: If US stock futures do not react excessively, it will then open up a violent rebound of 'bad news fully digested.'
Strategy: At this point, place a spot order for 'catching the falling knife' around $81,500. Only at times like this can you buy cheap chips stained with blood.
💡 4. In-depth summary: Opposition and unity
Someone asked: Gentle Breeze, are you creating anxiety?
No. I am telling you the cruel truth of the financial market.
In the long run (2026), the Federal Reserve's liquidity flood will push Bitcoin towards $150,000;
But in the next two days, the Bank of Japan is the Damocles' sword hanging over our heads.
True trading experts are long-term optimistic and short-term pessimistic.
In the next 48 hours, protect your principal well. Don't fall in the 'Japanese cold wave' before dawn.
I am Gentle Breeze BTC, a 20-year veteran who dares to speak the truth.
If you don't want to be harvested on Friday, follow me to get institutional-level strategies in real-time.
(Today's interaction: If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates on Friday, what do you think BTC will drop to at its lowest? Leave your predictions in the comments!)
