美国非农数据超预期

#美国非农数据超预期 Last night, the United States released the non-farm employment and unemployment rate data for November, which on the surface looks "very good": the number of new jobs is higher than expected, but the unemployment rate has risen to the highest level since September 2021. As soon as the market saw the rise in the unemployment rate, it immediately understood: high unemployment rate → economy is not doing well → the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates to save the market! As a result, U.S. stock futures rose sharply, other major currencies rebounded against the dollar, the dollar itself fell, and even gold jumped by $5 in one go. The key point is that the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January next year has been slightly raised from 24.4% to 31%.

However, don’t be too quick to celebrate! This is actually a typical case of "celebrating bad news as good news." An authoritative comment, referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve," immediately poured cold water on the situation: the current slight decline in the labor market is simply insufficient for the Federal Reserve to initiate another rate cut in January! Data from the interest rate futures market also shows that the market still expects that there won't be two rate cuts until 2026, and the overall easing space for next year is very limited. This wave of so-called "good news" is just a temporary boost to a dying market; once the effect wears off, what needs to fall will still fall.

#美国非农数据超预期
On Tuesday, Eastern Time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. non-farm payrolls adjusted for November recorded 64,000 jobs, higher than the market consensus expectation of 45,000. Meanwhile, October saw a decrease of 105,000, with an expected drop of 25,000.
The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the market expectation of 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021. Additionally, the number of non-farm jobs added in August was revised from -4,000 to -26,000; the number of non-farm jobs added in September was revised from 119,000 to 108,000. After revisions, the total number of jobs added in August and September was 33,000 lower than previously reported.
Due to the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on data collection in October, the October data was included in this employment report. The decline in non-farm employment in October was mainly due to significant layoffs in government sectors, as layoff plans that were delayed earlier this year began to take effect. In October, government jobs decreased by 162,000, and another 6,000 were lost in November.
This long-delayed employment report provides new insights into the clearly cooling U.S. labor market in recent months. The rebound in inflation and uncertainty in tariff policies have restrained companies' willingness to expand their workforce; meanwhile, the Trump administration's immigration policies have also reduced labor supply, leading to a decrease in the number of potential job seekers. This means that, even with modest growth in employment demand, it may not immediately push up the unemployment rate due to constrained labor supply.
In addition, the data shows that the average hourly wage in November increased by only 0.1% month-over-month, far below the market expectation of 0.3%; year-over-year, it increased by 3.5%, the smallest annual increase since May 2021.
Overall, economists describe the current labor market as a state of 'low layoffs and low hiring.' Most companies have not engaged in large-scale layoffs, but they are also reluctant to hire new employees in large numbers—partly because companies believe that many tasks can be performed by artificial intelligence (AI). Typically, companies would accelerate the hiring of temporary workers at this time of year, but this year they have chosen to stay put.

Non-farm data exceeds expectations, the US stock market is warming up, where will the cryptocurrency market go #美国非农数据超预期

Is the market warming up? I don't think so. The non-farm data exceeding expectations only indicates that this market is not as bad as everyone thinks, but it doesn't mean it is strengthening, it can only be said to be weakly recovering.

Currently, it is indeed not at the level of market recovery. Through various measures such as interest rate cuts, it is merely delaying the decline. $BTC

#美国非农数据超预期 The latest non-farm payroll data from the United States far exceeded expectations! In February, 353,000 new jobs were added, far surpassing the market expectation of 185,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. After the data was released, the US dollar index jumped by 0.3%, the 10-year Treasury yield broke through 4.1%, and US stock futures fluctuated higher. Strong employment highlights economic resilience, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates are increasing, possibly delaying the timing of rate cuts further this year. Short-term volatility in global risk assets is expected to intensify.

Data clashes, the market watches. This 'schizophrenic' non-farm report contains more complexity than meets the eye.

📈 Surface prosperity:
New jobs increased by 199,000, slightly above expectations. This is the most direct 'better than expected' headline and appears to be proof of economic resilience.

📉 Underlying weakness:

· Unemployment rate surged: from 3.9% to 3.8%, signs of loosening in the labor market are emerging.
· Previous values revised down: October data has been significantly downgraded, trends are showing signs of fatigue.
· Industry divergence: Growth is primarily driven by healthcare and government employment, manufacturing has increased due to strikes resuming, but some industries are already showing weakness.

💰 Core signal (wage inflation):
Average hourly wage growth has slowed to 0.4% month-on-month, and year-on-year growth has also slowed to 4.0%. This is one of the signals the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, and a cooling wage growth may ease inflationary pressures.

🎯 Market and Fed perspective:
The data reinforces the narrative of 'moderate economic slowdown and easing inflationary pressures,' and the market's expectations for the end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle and rate cuts next year have become more firm. This report feels more like a footnote to the 'soft landing' script rather than a change in the plot.

In summary: This is a report of 'all that glitters is not gold, look closely for subtleties.' It does not show an overheating economy, but rather reinforces the trend of slowing growth and controlled inflation, raising market expectations for a policy shift. #美国非农数据超预期

#美国非农数据超预期

Recently came across the non-farm payroll data for the U.S. in November released yesterday (December 16), quite interesting — an increase of 64,000 jobs. Although the number isn't large, it's better than the market expectation of 40,000 to 50,000, especially after a significant loss of 105,000 jobs in October (mainly due to federal government layoffs of 162,000). A slight rebound is quite nice. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a four-year high, but part of the reason is the delay in data collection due to the government shutdown and the impact of federal employee departures. The private sector is actually still adding jobs steadily in areas such as healthcare and construction.

To be honest, this mixed report makes one feel that the job market is cooling but not out of control. The Federal Reserve may continue to observe the data and not rush into major actions. In macroeconomics, there is always noise that interferes with real signals.

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🔥 Contradictory data explosion! Non-farm employment skyrocketed, but the unemployment rate collapsed? The Fed is more likely to cut rates in January next year!
🪙 Last night, as soon as the U.S. non-farm data was released, the market was directly confused—this script is not right!

📈 First, let's talk about the highlights: 64,000 new jobs in November, much more than expected! But turning around, the unemployment rate actually soared to 4.6%‼️ Even more shocking, the October data was heavily revised down, with employment numbers plummeting by 105,000, the largest drop since the pandemic…

This data is simply “schizophrenic”! Hiring on one hand, and unemployment on the other? If you look calmly, the cooling signal can no longer be hidden: the unemployment rate keeps rising, last month's data is catastrophic, and wage growth has slowed down… It’s obvious that the labor market is starting to leak!

💥 The market instantly understood: isn’t this exactly the “soft landing” script the Fed wants?! The economy hasn’t collapsed, but it’s tired, just paving the way for rate cuts~ As soon as the data came out, expectations for two rate cuts next year solidified, and some even began to guess: could it be acted upon even earlier?

Goldman Sachs pointed out directly: this report has too much “noise,” government shutdowns have disrupted the data! If you really want to see the trend clearly, you might have to wait until January next year.

🚀 But for the crypto market, this data is simply a “golden pull”—the economy is neither hot nor cold, and the Fed dares not be hawkish, it might even be more dovish! With liquidity expectations supported, the market heartbeat has stabilized.

💬 So what do you think: is this “split data” a divine assist or a smokescreen? Will the Fed open the gates early, or hold off a bit longer? See you in the comments!

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Did you all anticipate the non-farm data at 9:30 PM last night?

Is it a double win for both bulls and bears?

Or did it just benefit one side?

Or are you hesitating and watching from the sidelines?

When the market sentiment unanimously believes that the non-farm data will be favorable and push up significantly, the market only provided a limited doubling opportunity. The main force did not give a continuation, and the downward trend in the market is quite clear.

So at the first moment after the surge ended, I decisively informed my followers to set up short positions.

Following the market trend, not the data, resulted in the market breaking below 2900 directly at about ten, $ETH .

When there was a rebound, I immediately told my followers to take profits and exit, directly securing a doubling profit.

#美国非农数据超预期 #BinanceABCs

#美国非农数据超预期 : A 'Cold Water' Dousing the Enthusiasm for Interest Rate Cuts

Friends, were you greened by the market this morning? The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September unexpectedly increased by 119,000, far exceeding expectations. This belated 'report card' instantly doused the market with a bucket of cold water: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has plummeted from a high of 39.6%.

What does this mean for the cryptocurrency space?
Direct hit! The logic is simple: stronger economic data → the Federal Reserve is less urgent about cutting interest rates → high interest rate environment continues → risk assets come under pressure. This is why Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped in response, as the core logic supporting the previous rebound (expectations of liquidity easing) has wavered.

Our thoughts:
The market always oscillates between 'expectations' and 'reality.' This data reminds us that a bull market will not happen overnight, and the 'tap' of the macro economy is still firmly in the hands of the Federal Reserve. Short-term volatility may be a good time to reassess positions and return to the essence of value.

While everyone chases the fluctuations in macro data, some values are unrelated to interest rates. Just like #GiggleAcademy , regardless of whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, its commitment to providing free education to children worldwide will not change. The actions of community #MAX are precisely about transforming this enduring value into specific changes at local schools.

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#美国非农数据超预期 Core conclusions: On December 16, 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls for November reported an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The October data was revised downward, presenting a mix of overall employment resilience and concerns.

1. Key data overview (November, released at 12:00 Beijing time on December 16)

- Non-farm job addition: +64,000 (expected about 45,000)
- Unemployment rate: 4.6% (previous value 4.5%, expected 4.5%)
- October revision: from positive to negative, new jobs revised from +5,000 to **-105,000**
- Private sector: average new additions of about 75,000 over the past three months, relatively strong performance
- Labor participation rate: slight increase, pushing up the unemployment rate, but not all bad signals

2. Reasons and characteristics of data exceeding expectations

- Government employment volatility: significant downward revision in October due to temporary factors, rebound in November raising new job numbers
- Private sector resilience: healthcare, education, leisure, and hospitality services contributed the main new jobs
- Structural differentiation: manufacturing and construction are weak, while the service industry supports the job market

3. Impact on the market and policy

- Federal Reserve: Employment exceeding expectations weakens the rapid rate cut expectations for March, but the rising unemployment rate and moderate wages (not exceeding expectations) still leave room for future easing
- Asset performance: The dollar fluctuates, U.S. Treasury yields show slight volatility, and gold rises influenced by safe-haven and rate cut expectations
- Market interpretation: Job resilience coexists with economic downward pressure, leading to an increase in policy wait-and-see sentiment

4. Future focus

- December non-farm payrolls (released in January 2026): to verify whether the employment trend continues
- Inflation data (PCE, CPI): to jointly determine the pace of rate cuts with employment data
- Federal Reserve January meeting: policy guidance may be more cautious

Do you need me to create a one-page summary card of the key data (including market expectations, previous values, revised values, and key impacts), can you directly save it for reference? $BTC

The Federal Reserve is making moves again, unemployment rate rises in November, will the crypto market take off?

Last night, the U.S. employment report was released, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%. Futures markets indicate that the market is betting on two rate cuts in 2026, with the probability of a rate cut in January next year slightly increasing to 31%.

On the surface, it seems like a significant positive is coming, but the leader needs to pour a bucket of cold water on everyone.
This is purely a case of "celebrating a funeral" with the data hanging in the balance. The U.S. unemployment rate has hit a new high, and non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, yet the market has pushed up rate cut expectations, injecting adrenaline into the market. But how long can this injection last?

Although the rise in the unemployment rate boosts rate cut expectations, the Federal Reserve's stance remains hawkish, and the market will ultimately return to rationality. Last night's market performance is the best evidence of this!

What should players do now?
For those playing spot trading, if you can withstand it, just hold steady and wait it out.
For those trading contracts, don’t rush to bottom-fish; now is not the best entry position, and focus should still be on shorting.

If you always feel like you're a step behind the market, constantly experiencing "buying and then it drops, selling and then it rises," let me tell you, you’re not lacking analysis; you need a professional guide who can remind you in real-time of "opportunities are here" and "run fast!"

If you don’t know how to time your entries, you can follow the leader, who will analyze the current best entry points in real-time in the village!!
#美国非农数据超预期 $BTC

$BTC $ETH $ZEC Just now, the Federal Reserve has a big news on interest rate cuts!
The U.S. non-farm data is a "roller coaster"! In November, an increase of 64,000 exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 4.6%

The delayed U.S. non-farm data has finally arrived!

On the evening of December 16, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a report:

✅ In November, non-farm employment increased by 64,000, exceeding the expected 45,000;
⚠️ However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.5%;
📉 In October, the number of employed was revised down by 105,000, marking the largest decline since the end of 2020.

Why was the October data so poor? The main reason is that federal employees involved in Trump’s government “deferred resignation” plan were officially removed from the payroll list, leading to a sharp decline of 162,000 in government employment.

Although employment in November returned to positive, the labor market is still "bouncing up and down". The unemployment rate continues to rise, indicating increased layoffs and difficulty in finding jobs.

Will this report affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts?

The market seems not to be scared - traders are still betting on two rate cuts in 2026. After the data was released, U.S. stock futures briefly surged, but quickly fell back, with the dollar showing weakness.

Many analysts believe that the job market is experiencing a "moderate cooling": the unemployment rate is rising, growth is slowing, and wage growth is decelerating. But fortunately, there is no "cliff".

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that this data was significantly affected by the government shutdown, reducing its reference value: "Powell reminded last week that this report may be distorted." The truly indicative data may have to wait for the December figures released in early January.

Some viewpoints suggest that the Federal Reserve might as well "pause and observe" for a few more months before taking action. Some strategists also predict: "The labor market is cooling enough, and the number of rate cuts next year is likely to be more than what the Federal Reserve is currently indicating."

Summary: Employment has not collapsed, but it is indeed weakening - this gives the Federal Reserve a reason to continue easing. #美国非农数据超预期
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#美国非农数据超预期
The non-farm payrolls in the US for 2025 have caused short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.

1. Significant fluctuations in mainstream cryptocurrencies: After the data was released, $BTC surged rapidly to 88000, then quickly dipped to the support level of 86000, briefly rebounding to 88100 before falling again, trading in a narrow range between 87000 and 88000 since early morning; $ETH fell below the 3000 integer mark, consolidating in the range of 2890 to 2980 during the day, later stabilizing in the area of 2920 to 2970.
2. Interest rate cut expectations provide support: This non-farm payroll report showed slightly more jobs added than expected, but the unemployment rate hit a nearly four-year high, compounded by a significant downward revision of the October non-farm data. This contradictory performance has raised market expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing policy in 2026, with a slight increase in the probability of an interest rate cut in March. Lower interest rate expectations often benefit cryptocurrencies, as the market tends to believe that future funds will increase, making it willing to enter the crypto space and providing price support.
3. Limited rebound space: Although there is support from interest rate cut expectations, the current market fear sentiment has not completely dissipated, and the approaching interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan will limit the rebound strength of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin faces resistance at the four-hour mid-range of 88500 and the integer mark of 90000, while Ethereum is also suppressed by the 3000 integer mark, making significant short-term price increases unlikely.

$DOGE 🔥 Non-farm data is too divided! New jobs exceed expectations, but the unemployment rate is rising instead of falling! The market immediately got excited: expectations for interest rate cuts in January next year have skyrocketed, gold is soaring, and the dollar is plummeting. Is quantitative easing really coming?

This data is like giving the Federal Reserve a 'script': employment seems stable, but the unemployment rate has jumped to 4.6%, and data from the previous months has been significantly revised down. The script of economic cooling is becoming more and more real, and traders are directly betting that interest rates may drop to 3% by 2026! Liquidity expectations are igniting early, but global funds are flowing secretly—yen arbitrage is retreating, and volatility is about to explode.

The dual game in the crypto world is heating up: on one side, interest rate cut expectations boost sentiment, while on the other side, the market has already overspent the good news. $ETH is stuck in the $3100-$3400 range, which precisely indicates the fierce confrontation between bulls and bears. But don’t just focus on the big market—ecological undercurrents have long been surging, and giants are quietly laying out payment networks, with the next round of explosions lying in ambush.

Is it panic or opportunity? Smart money never waits. In addition to closely watching key levels of $BTC and $ETH , those early narratives with cultural genes often attract attention and liquidity first amid fluctuations.

🔥 The market is now waiting for a signal: data cools down but does not crash, which just gives the Federal Reserve a reason for easing. Should we pause and take a look? It’s better to actively seek structural opportunities. In the midst of great volatility, the wealth script is being rewritten! #加密市场观察 #加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向 #美国非农数据超预期