美国非农数据超预期

$ETH ，$ZEC ，$ASTER
🔥 Contradictory data explosion! Non-farm employment skyrocketed, but the unemployment rate collapsed? The Fed is more likely to cut rates in January next year!
🪙 Last night, as soon as the U.S. non-farm data was released, the market was directly confused—this script is not right!

📈 First, let's talk about the highlights: 64,000 new jobs in November, much more than expected! But turning around, the unemployment rate actually soared to 4.6%‼️ Even more shocking, the October data was heavily revised down, with employment numbers plummeting by 105,000, the largest drop since the pandemic…

This data is simply “schizophrenic”! Hiring on one hand, and unemployment on the other? If you look calmly, the cooling signal can no longer be hidden: the unemployment rate keeps rising, last month's data is catastrophic, and wage growth has slowed down… It’s obvious that the labor market is starting to leak!

💥 The market instantly understood: isn’t this exactly the “soft landing” script the Fed wants?! The economy hasn’t collapsed, but it’s tired, just paving the way for rate cuts~ As soon as the data came out, expectations for two rate cuts next year solidified, and some even began to guess: could it be acted upon even earlier?

Goldman Sachs pointed out directly: this report has too much “noise,” government shutdowns have disrupted the data! If you really want to see the trend clearly, you might have to wait until January next year.

🚀 But for the crypto market, this data is simply a “golden pull”—the economy is neither hot nor cold, and the Fed dares not be hawkish, it might even be more dovish! With liquidity expectations supported, the market heartbeat has stabilized.

💬 So what do you think: is this “split data” a divine assist or a smokescreen? Will the Fed open the gates early, or hold off a bit longer? See you in the comments!

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$BTC $ETH $ZEC Just now, the Federal Reserve has a big news on interest rate cuts!
The U.S. non-farm data is a "roller coaster"! In November, an increase of 64,000 exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 4.6%

The delayed U.S. non-farm data has finally arrived!

On the evening of December 16, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a report:

✅ In November, non-farm employment increased by 64,000, exceeding the expected 45,000;
⚠️ However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.5%;
📉 In October, the number of employed was revised down by 105,000, marking the largest decline since the end of 2020.

Why was the October data so poor? The main reason is that federal employees involved in Trump’s government “deferred resignation” plan were officially removed from the payroll list, leading to a sharp decline of 162,000 in government employment.

Although employment in November returned to positive, the labor market is still "bouncing up and down". The unemployment rate continues to rise, indicating increased layoffs and difficulty in finding jobs.

Will this report affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts?

The market seems not to be scared - traders are still betting on two rate cuts in 2026. After the data was released, U.S. stock futures briefly surged, but quickly fell back, with the dollar showing weakness.

Many analysts believe that the job market is experiencing a "moderate cooling": the unemployment rate is rising, growth is slowing, and wage growth is decelerating. But fortunately, there is no "cliff".

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that this data was significantly affected by the government shutdown, reducing its reference value: "Powell reminded last week that this report may be distorted." The truly indicative data may have to wait for the December figures released in early January.

Some viewpoints suggest that the Federal Reserve might as well "pause and observe" for a few more months before taking action. Some strategists also predict: "The labor market is cooling enough, and the number of rate cuts next year is likely to be more than what the Federal Reserve is currently indicating."

Summary: Employment has not collapsed, but it is indeed weakening - this gives the Federal Reserve a reason to continue easing. #美国非农数据超预期
#巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

$ETH
Non-farm data has gone crazy! The Federal Reserve is "opening the faucet" quietly, and is the crypto market about to celebrate?

This round of non-farm operations has left the whole network in shock! In November, an increase of 64,000 was significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate soared to 4.6%. Even more shocking is that the data for August and September was revised down by 33,000, and in October there was a direct drop of 105,000 — this employment data fluctuates even more than BTC. What exactly is the Federal Reserve up to?

As soon as the data was released, the market rushed to grab the interest rate cut expectations: the probability of a rate cut in January next year instantly shot up to 31%, while the expectations for two rate cuts in 2026, totaling 58 basis points of easing, remained unwavering. The Treasury Secretary even added fuel to the fire, urging the Federal Reserve to have an "open mindset," stating that inflation will drop sharply next year, and is preparing to issue hundreds of billions in tax refunds, with each household potentially receiving $1,000 to $2,000. Is this liquidity faucet about to open early?

The chain reaction was immediate: gold surged by $10 instantly, the dollar softened, and idle funds are looking for outlets everywhere. Meanwhile, Tether directly invested $8 million into Bitcoin Lightning Network payments, clearly paving the way for capital inflow and betting on the crypto market as a safe haven.

On one side is the contradictory "fog" of data, and on the other are the frequent signals of easing being released. The crypto market, caught in between, is hiding opportunities. But the key question arises: is this just a trap to lure in more investors after good news has been fully priced in, or is it truly a prelude to real easing?

Do you think BTC will break through its previous high with this wave of liquidity, or will it first pull back to gather strength? Can the Federal Reserve really cut rates as scheduled in January? $BNB

#美国非农数据超预期

US November Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate Data Released! 🇺🇸
Key Data (November):
• Non-Farm Payrolls Added: Actual 64K (Expected 50K, Previous -105K)
• Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.6% (Expected 4.5%, Previous 4.4%)
Both are slightly higher than expected, bringing significant uncertainty to the market:
1. Non-Farm Higher than Expected: Indicates that the US economy is still growing moderately, and the job market is resilient. This may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious attitude towards rapid rate cuts to avoid stimulating the economy too early.
2. Unemployment Rate Higher than Expected: Risen to 4.6% (four-year high), showing that the labor market is gradually cooling, and the risk of a potential recession is rising. This further supports the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates to guard against economic downturns.
These two pieces of data create a "long-short hedge" effect: economic resilience vs. labor market weakness, making it difficult for the market to form a consistent expectation. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January thus remains low (current market pricing below 50%).
In addition, with the expectation that the Bank of Japan is set to raise rates to 0.75% this week (December 18-19), the pressure on the yen to strengthen has increased. Global stock markets experienced widespread declines yesterday, and negative sentiment has not yet been fully digested. After the data release today, the market reaction is somewhat negative, and it is not well-received. Close attention is on the evening opening trend of US stocks, and further statements from the Federal Reserve and December employment data will be more valuable for reference!
#美国非农数据超预期

#美国非农数据超预期 12 On November 16, the U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for November both exceeded expectations. The unemployment rate for November recorded at 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure for November recorded 64,000, higher than the general market expectation.
This higher-than-expected non-farm and unemployment data seems contradictory, yet it paints a picture of "moderate economic cooling and potential easing of inflationary pressures," which is exactly what the current market hopes to see. As a result, after the data was released, the dollar fell, and risk assets (stock indices, gold, non-U.S. currencies) saw a widespread increase, which is completely logical.
The macro environment has shifted from "headwinds" to "sidewinds" or even "tailwinds": the market will focus more on finding targets with growth potential and unique narratives. This presents an excellent window of opportunity for the #Max community, which has been dedicated to creating real social value, to showcase its distinction from purely financial speculation projects.
The market's focus may gradually shift from "will there be a recession" to "which assets can rise in the new cycle." The Max community should more proactively bind and promote the "substantial progress of offline education promotion" with the "macro trend of blockchain empowering social welfare," seizing the opportunity for value discovery in the "post-macro panic era."
Therefore, action is more important than ever. During a period when market sentiment may reach a turning point, verifiable and sustained construction results are the hardest currency to attract funding and attention. Every successful offline event is a strong support for the community narrative.
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Although the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, the unemployment rate reached a new high since September 2001 at 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%. The few tens of thousands of new jobs represent only a drop in the bucket when viewed against the total workforce multiplied by 4.6%, which gives the total number of unemployed. In the short term, it seems there are no employment issues, but in the long run, it indicates an economic downturn, and the number of unemployed will gradually increase.
The November non-farm data released also revised the data from August and September, inflating the employment figures by 33,000, meaning the previous data was significantly overstated. Coupled with the U.S. government shutdown in October, this led to many figures being inaccurate or not published at all.
Therefore, I suspect that the November non-farm data is also inflated, crafted to look good to stabilize confidence first, with policy adjustments to follow. The people at the Federal Reserve are well aware of this and tacitly acknowledge it.
In summary, the expectation for interest rate cuts is increasing; in January, there may be a surprise rate cut when no one expects it.
$BTC

$ETH
#美国非农数据超预期

The latest U.S. non-farm payroll data (November 2025) was released today (December 16, 2025). Due to the prior federal government shutdown, the complete report for October was canceled, and this report mainly covers November data (the business survey part includes October employment changes, but no October unemployment rate). Key data (officially released by BLS): Non-farm payroll changes: November increased by 64,000 jobs (+64,000) Unemployment rate: 4.6% (higher than market expectations of about 4.4%) Employment growth was mainly driven by the healthcare industry (+46,000) and the construction industry (+28,000). Federal government employment continues to decline (-6,000), having previously decreased significantly by 162,000 in October. Overall employment growth has nearly stagnated since April, indicating further cooling in the labor market. Comparison with market expectations: The market generally expected an increase of about 40,000 to 50,000 in non-farm payrolls for November, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.4%. The actual non-farm increase was 64,000, slightly higher than expected (the portion above expectations), but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, exceeding expectations, and was overall seen as a signal of slowing employment growth (not a strong performance). Market impact: After the data was released, the dollar index strengthened slightly, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the stock market reacted moderately. This may reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious rate-cutting path (the labor market is cooling but not collapsing).
However, there are no particularly positive factors currently to boost market confidence, so it is likely still bearish; it is just uncertain what will happen next after the negative factors are fully priced in. $BTC #美国非农数据超预期

$ETH

Non-farm payrolls disappoint vs unemployment rate hits high! The long and short battle in the crypto market is here, 一起聊聊呗

Having just experienced a 4000-point plunge in BTC, the non-farm report throws out contradictory signals: new jobs increased by 119,000, far exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate surged to 4.44%, a new high since 2021. The crypto market is facing an ultimate choice amidst policy fog!

This delayed data release hides secrets: the seemingly strong non-farm jobs rely on part-time dominated sectors like education and healthcare, and the previous value has been significantly revised down, raising doubts about actual employment resilience. As the unemployment rate approaches the psychological barrier of 4.5%, the number of involuntary unemployed people surges, exposing potential weakness in the labor market, which precisely hits the Federal Reserve's pain point of "concern about the downside risks in employment."

Currently, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have become intense, with three dissenting votes in the December rate cut decision. Doves advocate for aggressive rate cuts, while hawks insist on holding steady, and expectations for a pause in rate cuts during Powell's term are rising. For the crypto market, this uncertainty gives rise to a "weak oscillation" pattern: strong non-farm figures suppress easing expectations, the dollar gets short-term support, but the rising unemployment rate leaves room for liquidity easing. Coupled with the implicit support from the Fed's halt in balance sheet reduction, BTC is engaging in a tug-of-war at the critical support level of 85000.

Technical risks remain: the BTC daily RSI is below 50; if it loses 85000, it will test 82000. If it can break through 88000 with the help of easing expectations, it may alleviate short-term downward pressure, but one must remain vigilant against the potential impact of rising rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan, as the exit of arbitrage funds may exacerbate volatility.

This data game is far from over; the direction of the Fed's policy in January will be a key variable. Do you think BTC can hold the 85000 support and rebound, or will it break down to test 82000? Will the Fed pause rate cuts in January?
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#美国非农数据超预期
#BTC走势分析

$DOGE 🔥 Non-farm data is too divided! New jobs exceed expectations, but the unemployment rate is rising instead of falling! The market immediately got excited: expectations for interest rate cuts in January next year have skyrocketed, gold is soaring, and the dollar is plummeting. Is quantitative easing really coming?

This data is like giving the Federal Reserve a 'script': employment seems stable, but the unemployment rate has jumped to 4.6%, and data from the previous months has been significantly revised down. The script of economic cooling is becoming more and more real, and traders are directly betting that interest rates may drop to 3% by 2026! Liquidity expectations are igniting early, but global funds are flowing secretly—yen arbitrage is retreating, and volatility is about to explode.

The dual game in the crypto world is heating up: on one side, interest rate cut expectations boost sentiment, while on the other side, the market has already overspent the good news. $ETH is stuck in the $3100-$3400 range, which precisely indicates the fierce confrontation between bulls and bears. But don’t just focus on the big market—ecological undercurrents have long been surging, and giants are quietly laying out payment networks, with the next round of explosions lying in ambush.

Is it panic or opportunity? Smart money never waits. In addition to closely watching key levels of $BTC and $ETH , those early narratives with cultural genes often attract attention and liquidity first amid fluctuations.

🔥 The market is now waiting for a signal: data cools down but does not crash, which just gives the Federal Reserve a reason for easing. Should we pause and take a look? It’s better to actively seek structural opportunities. In the midst of great volatility, the wealth script is being rewritten! #加密市场观察 #加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向 #美国非农数据超预期

$ETH $BTC $ASTER

🔥🔥🔥Non-Farm Payrolls Meet Rate Hike: A Sword of Damocles Hanging Over the Crypto Market❗️

‼️Yesterday's non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly strong, with new jobs far exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate remaining stable at a low level. This poured cold water on the already uncertain expectations of a Fed rate cut—market bets on a March rate cut instantly cooled, Bitcoin fell below $88,000, and altcoins fell even more sharply. An even more crucial variable lies in the East: the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates to 0.75% on December 19th, which would be the first "strong rate hike" in 30 years.

‼️The connection between these two events lies in "carry trades": Over the past 30 years, due to ultra-low interest rates, the yen has been borrowed by global speculators and used to leverage purchases of US Treasury bonds, US stocks, and even cryptocurrencies, amounting to a scale of $4-20 trillion. If Japan raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing yen will skyrocket, and these funds will prioritize flowing back to Japan to "fill the gap," with cryptocurrencies bearing the brunt of the sell-off.

🚨The future direction of the cryptocurrency market hinges on the interplay of two forces: will the "high interest rate expectations" supported by the non-farm payrolls report and the "liquidity contraction" triggered by the Japanese rate hike resonate? If both combine, Bitcoin may test the $80,000 support level; if the Federal Reserve subsequently releases dovish signals to "hedge," the cryptocurrency market may be able to stabilize. However, regardless, this liquidity shift triggered by the non-farm payrolls report and the Japanese rate hike has made the sword of Damocles hanging over the cryptocurrency market increasingly sharp, awaiting the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies to reveal the answer.

#美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

Non-farm data is here: jobs +64,000 (slightly exceeding expectations), but the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% (the highest since September 2021).

With more jobs, how are more people unemployed? Simply put, this is an awkward situation of a 'musical chairs' game.

**1. Different counting methods: counting chairs vs counting heads**
- Counting chairs (business survey): asking employers how many salaries they have issued. If you work during the day and drive for rideshare at night? That's counted as two jobs!
Result: With high living costs, the number of people forced to work extra jobs surged by 910,000 in November; the chairs may seem more, but it's actually old players stacking chairs.
- Counting heads (household survey): asking if there are 'jobs available' in your home. Regardless of how many jobs you have, you are just one person. New graduates, immigrants, and those laid off cannot grab new chairs, so the unemployment rate naturally rises.

**2. Too slow in adding chairs**
We need 100,000 to 150,000 new chairs each month to stabilize the unemployment rate, but only 64,000 were added in November. Too many new players, not enough seats for the old players.

**3. New chairs are extremely specialized**
Healthcare +46,000, construction +28,000, while other industries are generally downsizing (logistics -18,000, government -6,000). Doctors and construction workers are in demand, while other professions continue to face challenges.

**Conclusion: Pseudo-positive**
On the surface, job numbers exceed expectations, but the actual job market is cooling, making life tougher for the public. The Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain a dovish stance, and there won't be an abrupt stop to interest rate cuts.

Not enough chairs, the music hasn't stopped yet—brothers, practice a few more skills, stay steady!

$BTC $EPIC $OM
小『奶』🐶，『p●u●p●p●i●e●s』
#美国非农数据超预期

In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, reaching a four-year high. The October employment figures were revised down by 105,000, mainly due to the Trump administration's "deferred resignation" plan, which resulted in over 150,000 federal employees being removed from the payroll.

· Market expectations: After the data was released, traders still bet on two interest rate cuts in 2026.
· Data quality: Due to the previous government shutdown, the October and November data may be distorted, reducing its reference value.
· Policy focus: The Federal Reserve may pay more attention to the December non-farm report, set to be released in early January 2026, as the basis for the next decision.

Major cryptocurrencies stabilized after the data was released, with Bitcoin rebounding to around $87,000. However, some analysts warn that the market environment remains fragile, and without positive catalysts, Bitcoin may dip below $80,000 in the short term. #美国非农数据超预期 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

#美国非农数据超预期
The non-farm payrolls in the US for 2025 have caused short-term fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.

1. Significant fluctuations in mainstream cryptocurrencies: After the data was released, $BTC surged rapidly to 88000, then quickly dipped to the support level of 86000, briefly rebounding to 88100 before falling again, trading in a narrow range between 87000 and 88000 since early morning; $ETH fell below the 3000 integer mark, consolidating in the range of 2890 to 2980 during the day, later stabilizing in the area of 2920 to 2970.
2. Interest rate cut expectations provide support: This non-farm payroll report showed slightly more jobs added than expected, but the unemployment rate hit a nearly four-year high, compounded by a significant downward revision of the October non-farm data. This contradictory performance has raised market expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing policy in 2026, with a slight increase in the probability of an interest rate cut in March. Lower interest rate expectations often benefit cryptocurrencies, as the market tends to believe that future funds will increase, making it willing to enter the crypto space and providing price support.
3. Limited rebound space: Although there is support from interest rate cut expectations, the current market fear sentiment has not completely dissipated, and the approaching interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan will limit the rebound strength of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin faces resistance at the four-hour mid-range of 88500 and the integer mark of 90000, while Ethereum is also suppressed by the 3000 integer mark, making significant short-term price increases unlikely.

Contradictory data released! Non-farm employment exceeds expectations, but the unemployment rate rises, is the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectation more stable?

Last night, the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payroll report was finally released, but the data presented a rare scenario of 'ice and fire'.

📊 Core data overview:

· 64,000 new jobs in November, higher than the market expectation of 45,000.
· However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, higher than previous values and expectations.
· October data was significantly revised down, with a decrease of 105,000 jobs, marking the largest drop since 2020.

🔍 Behind the data: signs of cooling have emerged
Although the new employment figures are impressive, the continuous rise in the unemployment rate, the significant downward revision of previous month’s data, combined with slowing wage growth, collectively paint a picture of a 'moderately cooling labor market'. Analysts have pointed out that the unusual decline in October is mainly related to a one-time impact from government personnel changes, thus data from the past two months should be viewed comprehensively.

💡 What does this mean for the market and policy?
This contradictory report may actually strengthen the market's expectation for easing. The core logic is that the labor market has not collapsed, but there are indeed signs of weakness, which provides more reasons for the Federal Reserve's 'preventive rate cuts'. After the data was released, the market's expectation for two rate cuts in 2026 did not weaken.

Goldman Sachs and other institutions remind that due to previous government shutdowns, this report has a lot of 'noise'. The real trend may not become clear until the December data is released in January next year.

🚀 Summary and Outlook
For the cryptocurrency market, a 'neither hot nor cold' job market may be an ideal state—it is not enough to push the Federal Reserve toward a hawkish stance but provides a basis for maintaining or even increasing easing efforts. The continued presence of liquidity expectations remains an important underlying support for risk assets.

When economic data is full of contradictions, market consensus often quietly forms amid disagreements. Do you think this report will ultimately prompt the Federal Reserve to act sooner or later?
#美国非农数据超预期 $ETH
(This article is only a macro data interpretation and does not constitute any investment advice.)

The Federal Reserve is making moves again, unemployment rate rises in November, will the crypto market take off?

Last night, the U.S. employment report was released, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%. Futures markets indicate that the market is betting on two rate cuts in 2026, with the probability of a rate cut in January next year slightly increasing to 31%.

On the surface, it seems like a significant positive is coming, but the leader needs to pour a bucket of cold water on everyone.
This is purely a case of "celebrating a funeral" with the data hanging in the balance. The U.S. unemployment rate has hit a new high, and non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, yet the market has pushed up rate cut expectations, injecting adrenaline into the market. But how long can this injection last?

Although the rise in the unemployment rate boosts rate cut expectations, the Federal Reserve's stance remains hawkish, and the market will ultimately return to rationality. Last night's market performance is the best evidence of this!

What should players do now?
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#美国非农数据超预期 $BTC