#美国非农数据超预期

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. non-farm payrolls adjusted for November recorded 64,000 jobs, higher than the market consensus expectation of 45,000. Meanwhile, October saw a decrease of 105,000, with an expected drop of 25,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the market expectation of 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021. Additionally, the number of non-farm jobs added in August was revised from -4,000 to -26,000; the number of non-farm jobs added in September was revised from 119,000 to 108,000. After revisions, the total number of jobs added in August and September was 33,000 lower than previously reported.

Due to the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on data collection in October, the October data was included in this employment report. The decline in non-farm employment in October was mainly due to significant layoffs in government sectors, as layoff plans that were delayed earlier this year began to take effect. In October, government jobs decreased by 162,000, and another 6,000 were lost in November.

This long-delayed employment report provides new insights into the clearly cooling U.S. labor market in recent months. The rebound in inflation and uncertainty in tariff policies have restrained companies' willingness to expand their workforce; meanwhile, the Trump administration's immigration policies have also reduced labor supply, leading to a decrease in the number of potential job seekers. This means that, even with modest growth in employment demand, it may not immediately push up the unemployment rate due to constrained labor supply.

In addition, the data shows that the average hourly wage in November increased by only 0.1% month-over-month, far below the market expectation of 0.3%; year-over-year, it increased by 3.5%, the smallest annual increase since May 2021.

Overall, economists describe the current labor market as a state of 'low layoffs and low hiring.' Most companies have not engaged in large-scale layoffs, but they are also reluctant to hire new employees in large numbers—partly because companies believe that many tasks can be performed by artificial intelligence (AI). Typically, companies would accelerate the hiring of temporary workers at this time of year, but this year they have chosen to stay put.