蜘蛛感应

#日本加息已成定局

1. Core impact pathway: closing of carry trades and tightening of liquidity
For a long time, investors have been accustomed to borrowing yen at extremely low interest rates and then converting it into dollars to invest in high-yield assets such as U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasury bonds, or cryptocurrencies. This is known as 'yen carry trade.' When Japan raises interest rates: the cost of borrowing yen increases, leading to a withdrawal of this capital from high-risk assets and the purchase of yen for repayment. Market outcome: this process directly drains liquidity from the cryptocurrency market and is often accompanied by forced selling to repay loans, which depresses cryptocurrency prices.

#美国非农数据超预期 Yesterday (December 16) the U.S. November non-farm data showed characteristics of 'superficially strong, fundamentally weak'. Although the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate rose to a nearly four-year high, complicating the market's interpretation of economic prospects and Federal Reserve policies.
1. Surpassing expectations on the surface
New jobs added: In November, an increase of 64,000 people, higher than the market's general expectation of 45,000 to 50,000 people. Growth sources: Mainly concentrated in non-cyclical industries such as healthcare and construction.
2. Substantial signs of fatigue
Unemployment rate: Rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 (nearly four years). Historical data revised down: The combined number of new jobs added in August and September was revised down by 33,000. Wage growth slowed: Average hourly wage increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, lower than expected, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5%, which is a relatively low level in recent years. Data quality: Due to the government shutdown in October and November, data collection was affected, possibly resulting in higher 'noise'.

#美联储降息 $BTC

Tonight's non-farm data forecast and key points of concern
At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the non-farm employment report for November. This report is highly unusual due to its special background and may trigger significant market volatility.
Release time: Beijing time, December 16th (tonight) at 21:30. Special characteristics of the data: Due to the previous government shutdown in the United States, this report will include both the complete data for November and the revised employment figures for October, but the unemployment rate for October will not be published. The quality and accuracy of the data are therefore under scrutiny. Core forecast value: The market generally expects a significant cooling in the labor market. New non-farm employment in November: The current mainstream expectation is between 40,000 and 50,000 people. Unemployment rate in November: Expected to rise from 4.4% in October to 4.5%, reaching the highest level since 2021. Average hourly wage: Expected monthly growth of 0.3%, with a slowdown in year-on-year growth. Special caution regarding the risk of 'systematic overestimation': Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently warned that since April of this year, official non-farm data may have overestimated approximately 60,000 jobs on average each month. This means that if this deviation is corrected, actual job growth may have already been close to zero or even negative.