Tonight's non-farm data forecast and key points of concern
At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the non-farm employment report for November. This report is highly unusual due to its special background and may trigger significant market volatility.
Release time: Beijing time, December 16th (tonight) at 21:30. Special characteristics of the data: Due to the previous government shutdown in the United States, this report will include both the complete data for November and the revised employment figures for October, but the unemployment rate for October will not be published. The quality and accuracy of the data are therefore under scrutiny. Core forecast value: The market generally expects a significant cooling in the labor market. New non-farm employment in November: The current mainstream expectation is between 40,000 and 50,000 people. Unemployment rate in November: Expected to rise from 4.4% in October to 4.5%, reaching the highest level since 2021. Average hourly wage: Expected monthly growth of 0.3%, with a slowdown in year-on-year growth. Special caution regarding the risk of 'systematic overestimation': Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently warned that since April of this year, official non-farm data may have overestimated approximately 60,000 jobs on average each month. This means that if this deviation is corrected, actual job growth may have already been close to zero or even negative.
The impact path of non-farm data on the market
This report will be a key clue for assessing the health of the U.S. economy and the direction of Federal Reserve policy. Its impact path is as follows: If the data is weaker than expected (such as new jobs below 40,000, unemployment rate above 4.5%): this will reinforce signs of economic slowdown, potentially consolidating the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and increasing market expectations for future interest rate cuts. Theoretically, this could weaken the dollar and provide short-term support for assets like gold and Bitcoin that are seen as alternative assets. If the data is stronger than expected: it may temporarily alleviate market concerns about economic recession, but it will also weaken the urgency for further interest rate cuts or put pressure on risk assets.
Current status of the cryptocurrency market
In sync with the tense emotions of waiting for non-farm data, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a widespread decline. Overall decline: On December 16, major sectors of the cryptocurrency market fell by about 2%-5%. Among them, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped more than 3%, with a price falling below $86,000; Ethereum (ETH) fell over 4%, dropping below $3,000. Huge liquidation: Intense price fluctuations led to over $600 million in liquidations of cryptocurrency contracts across the network in the past 24 hours, with the number of liquidated positions reaching 184,600, most of which were long positions. Changes in market depth: This decline exhibits some new characteristics. Analysis indicates that this sell-off is primarily driven by adjustments in spot and derivatives positions, rather than large-scale forced liquidations. Due to relatively weak market liquidity, the decline may be more 'gentle but lasting', making reversals difficult. Structural changes in the market: The cryptocurrency market in 2025 is undergoing profound changes. Funds are concentrating from high-risk small-cap altcoins to 'institution-grade' quality assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This means that even if Bitcoin declines, its relative strength remains significant, while many altcoins experience more severe drops.
The relationship between non-farm data and the cryptocurrency market
Currently, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, remain closely correlated with traditional macro markets. Risk sentiment transmission: Recently, the decline in the cryptocurrency market has been largely consistent with the decline in U.S. stocks (especially tech stocks), showing a common impact of decreased risk appetite. Liquidity expectations: Non-farm data influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and will change the global liquidity environment of the dollar. Easing expectations (dovish) are generally seen as potentially beneficial for the cryptocurrency market. In summary, tonight's non-farm report, due to its uniqueness and market controversy, could become an important trigger for volatility. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is in a sensitive position under the dual effects of its own structural adjustments and macro risk sentiment suppression. In addition to tonight's non-farm data, the CPI inflation data for November, which will be released in the U.S. this Thursday (December 18), is also crucial.
