#美国非农数据超预期 Yesterday (December 16) the U.S. November non-farm data showed characteristics of 'superficially strong, fundamentally weak'. Although the number of new jobs exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate rose to a nearly four-year high, complicating the market's interpretation of economic prospects and Federal Reserve policies.

1. Surpassing expectations on the surface

New jobs added: In November, an increase of 64,000 people, higher than the market's general expectation of 45,000 to 50,000 people. Growth sources: Mainly concentrated in non-cyclical industries such as healthcare and construction.

2. Substantial signs of fatigue

Unemployment rate: Rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 (nearly four years). Historical data revised down: The combined number of new jobs added in August and September was revised down by 33,000. Wage growth slowed: Average hourly wage increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, lower than expected, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5%, which is a relatively low level in recent years. Data quality: Due to the government shutdown in October and November, data collection was affected, possibly resulting in higher 'noise'.

Logic of the impact on the macro economy and markets

This report may impact the market through the following pathways and ultimately transmit to cryptocurrencies:

1. Economic outlook and recession concerns: Rising unemployment rates and job growth concentrated in a few industries have intensified the market's judgment that the U.S. economy is cooling. Concerns about an economic recession may suppress the overall preference for risk assets.

2. Federal Reserve policy expectations (core transmission pathway):

* Strengthened interest rate cut expectations: A weak labor market has reinforced the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will turn to interest rate cuts in the future, which is seen as a long-term liquidity boost for risk assets.

* Cautious short-term actions: Due to 'mixed' data and interference, the market does not expect a significant increase in the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates immediately in the short term (e.g., January next year), so the favorable effects are not immediate.

Analysis of the specific impact on the cryptocurrency market

Based on the above logic, non-farm data has a dual and complex effect on the crypto market:

Positive impact (medium to long-term logic): Liquidity expectations: The market's anticipation that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates forms the core macro support for cryptocurrencies (as risk assets and potential inflation-hedging assets). Analysts point out that the crypto market has entered a phase of 'policy-driven trading', and future trends will be highly tied to the Federal Reserve's policy expectations.

Complex effects (short-term reality): Market reactions are diverging: After the data was released, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $88,000, showing a different trend from the pressured U.S. stock market, indicating that some funds may view it as a hedging option. However, some analysts consider this rebound to be a 'technical correction', and its sustainability is questionable.

High volatility risk: The report has simultaneously intensified concerns about economic recession, and this uncertainty may trigger deleveraging behavior in the market, leading to sharp fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices.

Other indicators to watch: Liquidation data: In the past 24 hours, there have still been a large number of long positions liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, indicating that the risks of leveraged traders have not been cleared. Capital flow: During the same period, the Bitcoin spot market showed a net outflow of funds.

Overall, it provides mid-term potential support for cryptocurrencies by reinforcing the narrative of 'economic weakening → central bank future easing'. However, the reality of economic cooling and the complexity of the data also make the market more susceptible to high volatility and swings in the short term.

Subsequent close attention is needed: 1. Key economic data: Upcoming inflation data (CPI) and initial jobless claims will further validate the economic situation and influence the Federal Reserve's policy expectations. 2. Market structure: The leverage liquidation situation in the crypto market itself and the capital flow of mainstream exchanges.