#美国非农数据超预期 Last night, the United States released the non-farm employment and unemployment rate data for November, which on the surface looks "very good": the number of new jobs is higher than expected, but the unemployment rate has risen to the highest level since September 2021. As soon as the market saw the rise in the unemployment rate, it immediately understood: high unemployment rate → economy is not doing well → the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates to save the market! As a result, U.S. stock futures rose sharply, other major currencies rebounded against the dollar, the dollar itself fell, and even gold jumped by $5 in one go. The key point is that the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January next year has been slightly raised from 24.4% to 31%.

However, don’t be too quick to celebrate! This is actually a typical case of "celebrating bad news as good news." An authoritative comment, referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve," immediately poured cold water on the situation: the current slight decline in the labor market is simply insufficient for the Federal Reserve to initiate another rate cut in January! Data from the interest rate futures market also shows that the market still expects that there won't be two rate cuts until 2026, and the overall easing space for next year is very limited. This wave of so-called "good news" is just a temporary boost to a dying market; once the effect wears off, what needs to fall will still fall.