#美国非农数据超预期 Core conclusions: On December 16, 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls for November reported an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The October data was revised downward, presenting a mix of overall employment resilience and concerns.
1. Key data overview (November, released at 12:00 Beijing time on December 16)
- Non-farm job addition: +64,000 (expected about 45,000)
- Unemployment rate: 4.6% (previous value 4.5%, expected 4.5%)
- October revision: from positive to negative, new jobs revised from +5,000 to **-105,000**
- Private sector: average new additions of about 75,000 over the past three months, relatively strong performance
- Labor participation rate: slight increase, pushing up the unemployment rate, but not all bad signals
2. Reasons and characteristics of data exceeding expectations
- Government employment volatility: significant downward revision in October due to temporary factors, rebound in November raising new job numbers
- Private sector resilience: healthcare, education, leisure, and hospitality services contributed the main new jobs
- Structural differentiation: manufacturing and construction are weak, while the service industry supports the job market
3. Impact on the market and policy
- Federal Reserve: Employment exceeding expectations weakens the rapid rate cut expectations for March, but the rising unemployment rate and moderate wages (not exceeding expectations) still leave room for future easing
- Asset performance: The dollar fluctuates, U.S. Treasury yields show slight volatility, and gold rises influenced by safe-haven and rate cut expectations
- Market interpretation: Job resilience coexists with economic downward pressure, leading to an increase in policy wait-and-see sentiment
4. Future focus
- December non-farm payrolls (released in January 2026): to verify whether the employment trend continues
- Inflation data (PCE, CPI): to jointly determine the pace of rate cuts with employment data
- Federal Reserve January meeting: policy guidance may be more cautious
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