【Century Alert】Bitcoin RSI hits 20.1! Is 86,000 the century's bottom or the starting point of a collapse?
A rare extreme data point over the past decade is screaming — Bitcoin's 4-hour RSI has dropped to 20.1, which is the textbook definition of 'crash-level' overselling! The price is currently clinging tightly at 86,790, just a hair away from the 'Empire Wall' of 86,676 that resonates across multiple cycles. History tells us that after such a position, the market either stages an epic rebound of a desperate counterattack or begins a freefall bloody massacre. All top traders have locked their sights here: is this truly a historic bottom-buying opportunity, or the last trap to bury most people? Below is the 'Doomsday Survival Guide' you must have.
🔥 Core battlefield decoding: The ultimate showdown of trends and indicators.
· Coordinate: 86,790.70 — A life hanging by a thread.
· Core contradiction: The 4-hour chart is in a clear downtrend, but the RSI 20.1 lights up a glaring 'extreme exhaustion' red light; the 1-hour chart is stuck in consolidation, with RSI 68.7 suggesting local rebound momentum.
· Market status: Sentiment 'neutral to bearish', but risk level is 'high'. Opportunities and traps coexist; only discipline can survive.
🎯 Two numbers that determine future wealth.
· Empire Barrier (ultimate support): 86,676.30. Support from the triple cycle resonance of 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours. This is the 'Maginot Line' for bulls; once broken with increased volume, it will be smooth sailing below, aiming directly at 83,833.
· Castle in the Sky (core resistance): 90,021.90 (1H strong resistance) and 92,666.50 (4H strong resistance). This is the 'Berlin Wall' for bears and a litmus test for whether the rebound can evolve into a reversal.
⚔️ Ultimate battle plan: Two types of scripts, ruthlessly executed.
Give up the fantasy; the market only gives you two paths. In light of the high-risk environment, the trend should be the main focus, with counter-trend as a supplement.
Operation code: Plan One: Breakout Pursuit (main attack direction) Plan Two: Picking up nuts from the fire (counter-trend ambush)
Core logic respects the 4-hour downtrend, betting on the key support's inertia decline after breaking. Betting on the technical rebound after the extreme oversold RSI 20.1 on the 4-hour chart belongs to high-risk, high-odds operations.
Fire zone: After the price breaks down 86,676, confirm weakness when rebounding to around 86,500. When the price stabilizes and shows a bullish candlestick combination in the 86,800 - 87,200 range.
Retreat order (stop loss) 88,000 (placed within the original fluctuation range to prevent false breakouts) 86,300 (must be firmly placed below the lifeline)
Harvest target: First stop: 84,500 Final point: 83,900 (daily support) First stop: 89,500 Ambition: 91,000
Deploy troops: Total funds 1-2% (with the trend, normal position) Total funds 0.5-1% (against the trend, must be light position!)
Key odds approximately 1:1.33 (odds are average, but follow the trend, higher win rate) up to 1:5.4 (odds are tempting, but going against the trend bears great risk)
🛡️ The battlefield iron law that you must defend with blood.
1. Stop loss is faith: The above stop loss levels are the 'graveyard lines' of trading logic; touching them must lead to unconditional exit; any hesitation will lead to irreparable consequences.
2. Position is life and death: In a high-risk environment, heavy positions are strictly prohibited. Plan Two as a counter-trend operation, positions must be halved.
3. Signals are laws: Strictly prohibit early 'bottom guessing' or 'short chasing'! Must wait for the price to enter the sniper zone and exhibit clear reversal or breakout candlestick signals.
4. Profit protection: After reaching the first target, immediately close 50% of the position and move the stop loss of the remaining position to the cost price, achieving 'zero risk' holding.
🔮 Ultimate simulation for the next 48 hours.
· Script One: Bearish Feast (55%): Price struggles to rebound, ultimately breaking down the defense line of 86,676 with a long bearish candle, initiating a trend decline. Execute Plan One.
· Script Two: Bullish Swan Song (35%): Relying on the extreme value of RSI 20.1, a violent rebound occurs at support, but it may encounter resistance again in the 90,000-92,600 range. Execute Plan Two, but take profits when possible.
· Script Three: Miracle Reversal (10%): Strong breakout with increased volume above the daily resistance of 94,600, completely reversing the decline. The probability is very low, only for observation.
