【Century Alert】Bitcoin RSI hits 20.1! Is 86,000 the century's bottom or the starting point of a collapse?

A rare extreme data point over the past decade is screaming — Bitcoin's 4-hour RSI has dropped to 20.1, which is the textbook definition of 'crash-level' overselling! The price is currently clinging tightly at 86,790, just a hair away from the 'Empire Wall' of 86,676 that resonates across multiple cycles. History tells us that after such a position, the market either stages an epic rebound of a desperate counterattack or begins a freefall bloody massacre. All top traders have locked their sights here: is this truly a historic bottom-buying opportunity, or the last trap to bury most people? Below is the 'Doomsday Survival Guide' you must have.

· Coordinate: 86,790.70 — A life hanging by a thread.

· Core contradiction: The 4-hour chart is in a clear downtrend, but the RSI 20.1 lights up a glaring 'extreme exhaustion' red light; the 1-hour chart is stuck in consolidation, with RSI 68.7 suggesting local rebound momentum.

· Market status: Sentiment 'neutral to bearish', but risk level is 'high'. Opportunities and traps coexist; only discipline can survive.

🎯 Two numbers that determine future wealth.

· Empire Barrier (ultimate support): 86,676.30. Support from the triple cycle resonance of 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours. This is the 'Maginot Line' for bulls; once broken with increased volume, it will be smooth sailing below, aiming directly at 83,833.

· Castle in the Sky (core resistance): 90,021.90 (1H strong resistance) and 92,666.50 (4H strong resistance). This is the 'Berlin Wall' for bears and a litmus test for whether the rebound can evolve into a reversal.

⚔️ Ultimate battle plan: Two types of scripts, ruthlessly executed.

Give up the fantasy; the market only gives you two paths. In light of the high-risk environment, the trend should be the main focus, with counter-trend as a supplement.

Operation code: Plan One: Breakout Pursuit (main attack direction) Plan Two: Picking up nuts from the fire (counter-trend ambush)

Core logic respects the 4-hour downtrend, betting on the key support's inertia decline after breaking. Betting on the technical rebound after the extreme oversold RSI 20.1 on the 4-hour chart belongs to high-risk, high-odds operations.

Fire zone: After the price breaks down 86,676, confirm weakness when rebounding to around 86,500. When the price stabilizes and shows a bullish candlestick combination in the 86,800 - 87,200 range.

Retreat order (stop loss) 88,000 (placed within the original fluctuation range to prevent false breakouts) 86,300 (must be firmly placed below the lifeline)

Harvest target: First stop: 84,500 Final point: 83,900 (daily support) First stop: 89,500 Ambition: 91,000

Deploy troops: Total funds 1-2% (with the trend, normal position) Total funds 0.5-1% (against the trend, must be light position!)

Key odds approximately 1:1.33 (odds are average, but follow the trend, higher win rate) up to 1:5.4 (odds are tempting, but going against the trend bears great risk)

🛡️ The battlefield iron law that you must defend with blood.

1. Stop loss is faith: The above stop loss levels are the 'graveyard lines' of trading logic; touching them must lead to unconditional exit; any hesitation will lead to irreparable consequences.

2. Position is life and death: In a high-risk environment, heavy positions are strictly prohibited. Plan Two as a counter-trend operation, positions must be halved.

3. Signals are laws: Strictly prohibit early 'bottom guessing' or 'short chasing'! Must wait for the price to enter the sniper zone and exhibit clear reversal or breakout candlestick signals.

4. Profit protection: After reaching the first target, immediately close 50% of the position and move the stop loss of the remaining position to the cost price, achieving 'zero risk' holding.

🔮 Ultimate simulation for the next 48 hours.

· Script One: Bearish Feast (55%): Price struggles to rebound, ultimately breaking down the defense line of 86,676 with a long bearish candle, initiating a trend decline. Execute Plan One.

· Script Two: Bullish Swan Song (35%): Relying on the extreme value of RSI 20.1, a violent rebound occurs at support, but it may encounter resistance again in the 90,000-92,600 range. Execute Plan Two, but take profits when possible.

· Script Three: Miracle Reversal (10%): Strong breakout with increased volume above the daily resistance of 94,600, completely reversing the decline. The probability is very low, only for observation.

Final judgment: The market has issued an extreme signal that occurs once every ten years. What you need is not prediction, but to become an absolutely ruthless discipline executor. Etch this battle map into your mind, then wait, confirm, and fire. Remember, in this market, longevity is the only victory.

#加密市场观察 $BTC #