Powell has about 6 months left in his term, and the issue is no longer 'will there be a change in personnel,' but rather 'who will be replaced and when will pricing begin.'

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has made it clear that he does not wish to take this position, which is essentially a voluntary exit. The market's default optimal solution is Hassett.

Why him?

First, his stance is extremely clear. Hassett openly supports cryptocurrency, which is crucial in the current political environment.

Second, he has repeatedly emphasized that 'existing economic data supports further rate cuts,' which is not ambiguous; he has a clear alignment.

Third, his economic philosophy is highly consistent with Trump's; to put it bluntly, they are on the same page.

So the logic is simple.

Once Hassett is confirmed by the market to enter the succession channel, the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish neutral' pricing will be quickly overturned, replaced by 'policy preemptive easing expectations.' This is also why I have been saying that in the second half of next year, the probability of continued rate cuts is not just a slight increase, but structurally certain.

However, there is a point that many people easily get wrong.

Rate cuts do not mean unlimited liquidity.

The impact of liquidity injections will essentially be exhausted by around May next year.

The rate cuts that follow will resemble 'policy confirmation' and 'emotional endorsement,' rather than a new round of massive liquidity.

In other words,

the first half is driven by liquidity expectations in pricing,

the second half is driven by the political cycle + policy direction in valuation.

Simply put, the market only speculates on expectations, but once those expectations materialize, it will push aggressively. $SOL #巨鲸动向