Honestly, I haven't been so struck by a number in a long time.
The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has reached 1.96%.
Only a step away from 2%, and it's in the highest range in a decade.
This may seem very "Japanese" on the surface, but it's truly not just a Japanese issue.
Japan has long been one of the sources of the lowest-cost capital globally, with many structures and leverage, and the underlying logic has always assumed "forever low interest rates." This assumption is now being gradually overturned.
If 2% is effectively broken, the impact will not be just fluctuations in price levels, but rather the logic of capital itself will have to be recalibrated.
Can carry trade still be established?
Can low-cost financing still roll over?
Which assets are actually propped up by "cheap money" valuations?
Once these questions are seriously considered by the market, the reaction is usually not mild.
I don't like to casually use the term "black swan," but this level of variable is more like a delayed fuse.
It may not explode immediately, but once it starts to react, it often leads to a chain reaction.
On the 19th, I will be particularly vigilant.
Not because I know what will happen, but because at times like this, the most dangerous state for the market is "not taking it seriously yet."
I won't be making aggressive moves in the next few days.
If it can be slow, let it be slow; if it can be collected, let it be collected.
Sometimes, whether the judgment is right or wrong is not as important; it’s more important not to get caught up in it.