日本加息

#日本加息
Are you ready for the arrival of Black Friday?

This week, the entire cryptocurrency community is focused on the small days.

The central bank of the small days is almost certain to end three decades of ultra-loose monetary policy at its meeting on December 18-19, raising the policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. This long-anticipated 'century rate hike' will have effects far beyond Japan itself, as it directly impacts the price centers of Bitcoin and Ethereum through a hidden global financial chain. #BTC走势分析 #ETH走势分析 #币圈

The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 0.25% on December 19!

In the last three rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin has experienced declines:
March 2024 → -27%
July 2024 → -30%
January 2025 → -30%
#比特币走势分析 #日本加息

1. 2024年3月19日：这是日本自2007年以来首次加息，政策利率从 -0.1%上调至0%-0.1%区间，结束了长达8年的负利率时代。
2. 2024年7月31日：日本央行将政策利率从0%-0.1%上调至0.25%，此次超预期加息引发全球市场剧烈动荡。
3. 2025年1月24日：政策利率被从0.25%上调至0.5%，该利率水平创下17年来的新高，且此次是三轮加息中幅度最大的一次。#日本加息

Discussing the bear market issues and Japan's interest rate hikes
The bear market has been warned several times before
For those who haven't heard, please turn right when you go out
Short-term trading isn't effective, but the big trend is always accurate
Each cycle has both bullish and bearish divergences
I don't know if it's because a bunch of inexperienced traders are trying to become KOLs
This round feels particularly numerous
The crypto market has always gone through a four-year bull-bear cycle
What are they really betting on that this round has no cycle anymore?
And so many people believe it

Next up is Japan's interest rate hike on the 19th
Do you know how much arbitrage capital in yen has been acting as liquidity in the global financial market?
Over 5 trillion US dollars!
When Japan raises interest rates
And the US lowers interest rates
This directly squeezes that portion of liquidity
Even in the crypto market, this portion of funds has a significant ratio
The exit of this liquidity
Will inevitably lead to the compression of liquidity in the global financial market
And those still dreaming of Bitcoin at 150,000 dollars
Let's not curse here.
#日本加息

The Bank of Japan is expected to decide whether to raise interest rates on Thursday or Friday this week. Currently, prediction platforms indicate a high probability of a rate hike at 98%, which means that the likelihood of a rate increase by the Bank of Japan this week is almost certain. So the question arises, what impact will a rate hike by Japan have on the cryptocurrency market?

In recent instances of Japan's interest rate hikes, in March 2024, July 2024, January 2025, and this upcoming one that is almost a certainty.

Theoretically, when Japan raises interest rates, funds from around the world should flow back. This means that the liquidity in our market would be drained, so it should theoretically decline. However! The first three rate hikes did not have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, and there was no noticeable decline in the 1-2 months before and after.

Looking into the reasons, it may be because, although Japan's interest rate hikes would lead large investors who borrow yen on leverage to close their long positions in international markets, our cryptocurrency market remains a very small part of the vast financial system, so the impact is limited.

Additionally, with Christmas approaching this month, historical data shows that over the past 11 years, the number of times the market has risen around Christmas exceeds half. The actual instances of decline are few. Therefore, it is inevitable that there will be an optimistic trend around Christmas.

Anyway, even if there is a decline before Christmas, I am 100% confident that the space is limited. It will just be another test of the 80000 level. That's all. #币圈 #日本加息

$ETH $BTC $ASTER

🚨 Financial nuclear bomb countdown: Is Japan's interest rate hike triggering a global shockwave?

‼️ On December 19, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75%! Don't underestimate this 25 basis points—it could pry open the foundations of 30 years of zero interest rates, triggering ¥30-40 trillion arbitrage trades! The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surged to 1.9%, just a step away from the 2% red line; once breached, a global sell-off may erupt!

‼️ For the past 30 years, Japan's “zero interest rate” has been the engine of global liquidity, with funds flowing into U.S. stocks and emerging markets. Now, the game has reversed! The interest rate hike will lead to a decline in government bonds, collateral devaluation, leverage collapse, and investors being forced to sell assets, with U.S. stocks being the first to suffer, and A-shares also cannot escape unscathed.

🔥 But who will be the real winner? Chinese government bonds, the renminbi, and high-dividend assets may rise! Gold is under short-term pressure, but remains a safe haven in the medium to long term.

⚠️ The suspense remains: Will the Bank of Japan press the trigger? Global markets are holding their breath in anticipation!

#巨鲸动向 #ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #日本加息

🚨🧨 Tonight, the "king bomb" that determines fate will detonate simultaneously! Non-farm data sets the tone for the Federal Reserve, while Japan's interest rate hike tightens the global faucet—cryptocurrency stands at a dual trial! $BTC $ETH

🔥 Just tonight, the U.S. November non-farm report is set to be released. This is no ordinary data; it is the ultimate arbiter of the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. Weak data = heightened rate cut expectations = a shot of adrenaline for the crypto market; strong data = shattered rate cut dreams = the market faces a correction. History shows that during the release of non-farm data, market volatility sharply increases, creating opportunities for short-term trading but also bringing significant risks.

😱 However, the real "pressure cooker" is the Bank of Japan! Market expectations for a rate hike to 0.75% this week have soared to 96%. This would be the highest interest rate in nearly thirty years, and its lethal effect lies in ending years of "yen carry trade": global capital has borrowed nearly zero-cost yen and surged into high-yield assets like Bitcoin. Once Japan raises interest rates, these funds will be forced to sell off assets, convert back to yen to repay debts, directly draining market liquidity. Data shows that just due to rate hike expectations, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $357 million in a single day on December 15.

📉 The market has already "kneeling" in advance
This is why Bitcoin briefly fell below $85,000 last night. Looking back at 2024, every time the Bank of Japan signaled tightening, Bitcoin experienced a deep correction of 14%-17%. Currently, Bitcoin is facing strong technical "cloud resistance" in the $85,000 range, and the risk-reward ratio is not friendly for short-term bulls.

💥 So, tonight is a dual trial:

1. Non-farm sets the direction: decides the "accelerator" or "brake" of short-term sentiment.
2. Japan sets the tone: decides whether global liquidity continues to tighten or if "bad news is fully priced in."

When two macro nuclear bombs detonate in succession, will you choose to stay on the sidelines or bet that the market can digest everything?
#日本加息 #美联储降息 #ETH走势分析 #BTC #ETH

November CPI in the U.S. on the 18th, Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision on the 19th
Market volatility is high, recommend low leverage and mainly low entry
The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is not on Japanese stocks, but on the Nasdaq and BTC.
The core issue is not the interest rate, but the reversal of yen arbitrage trading:
Interest rate hike in Japan → Strengthening of the yen (USD/JPY down) → Funds borrowing yen to buy U.S. stocks and BTC are forced to liquidate → Global risk asset volatility amplifies.#日本加息

This week, the cryptocurrency market will face two major events that could trigger significant volatility! The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November will be released on December 16, along with the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on December 19.
In the current market environment, the impact of U.S. non-farm data on cryptocurrencies shows an 'abnormal' logic— the weaker the employment data, the better it is for crypto. This is because non-farm data that is weaker than expected (for example, new jobs far below 50,000 or an unemployment rate higher than 4.4%) means that the U.S. economy is cooling, which will strengthen expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts. A low interest rate environment will drive funds into high-risk assets, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum often see significant increases as a result; historically, in similar scenarios, daily gains can reach 10% or more. Conversely, if non-farm data significantly exceeds expectations (new jobs over 150,000), it may lead to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, putting strong selling pressure on the crypto market, with short-term declines possibly reaching 8-15%.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is almost certain to raise interest rates on the 19th (from 0.5% to 0.75%), marking the highest level in thirty years. This action will boost the yen's exchange rate and accelerate the unwinding of 'carry trades,' pulling funds out of risk assets, which poses a significant negative impact on cryptocurrencies. The yen carry trade unwinding in the summer of 2024 has previously triggered a flash crash in Bitcoin.
In summary:
If the non-farm data is weaker than expected, and Japan raises interest rates slightly as anticipated, the two may partially offset each other, with the crypto market potentially showing fluctuations under high volatility, with price changes within ±8%.
The worst-case scenario is if the non-farm data is stronger than expected combined with interest rate hikes from Japan, leading to a significant decline in crypto, with a possible drop of 10-20%.
The most optimistic scenario is if non-farm data is extremely weak, and Japan unexpectedly adopts a dovish stance (not raising interest rates or signaling easing), which may lead to a strong rebound in cryptocurrencies, with weekly gains exceeding 20%.
In short, the crypto market will be extremely sensitive this week, with very high short-term volatility risks. Investors need to closely monitor the deviation between the actual non-farm numbers and expectations, as well as the hawkish or dovish tone of the Bank of Japan's post-meeting statements, and implement strict risk control. In the long term, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle remains the main driver, but the normalization of Japanese monetary policy has become a new variable that cannot be ignored. #非农 #日本加息

$BTC Will Japan's interest rate hike crash the crypto market? After 190,000 people are liquidated, some bet it will drop to 70,000 while others frantically buy the dip! 🥶🥶🥶

The little devils have started to stir again! Just when the crypto market was hoping for the warm breeze of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, it was suddenly stunned by Japan's "rate hike bomb"—BTC plummeted directly from 90,000 to below 86,000, ETH fell below 2900, 190,000 people were liquidated in 24 hours, and over 580 million in long positions instantly went to zero; this wave of bloodshed is more intense than a cold wave 😂

Surely some are confused: Japan's interest rate hike, what does it have to do with our crypto trading? Let me explain in plain language! For the past few decades, the yen has been a "free ATM", borrowing money with almost no interest. Whether it's Wall Street moguls or "Mrs. Watanabe", everyone loves to borrow yen to exchange for dollars to buy BTC or US stocks to profit; this is called "carry trade". Now, Japan plans to raise the interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the most aggressive hike in 30 years! Borrowing money is going to cost a lot, and these people can only rush to sell crypto assets to exchange for yen to pay off debts, which is equivalent to directly "draining" the crypto market!

What's even scarier is the historical lessons! In the past, Japan's three interest rate hikes caused BTC to drop over 20% each time, with the biggest drop being 31%! Now, 98% of the market predicts a rate hike, and the panic sentiment is at an all-time high; the haters take the opportunity to shout, "BTC will drop below 70,000" and "the crypto market is cooling down". I watch the K-line drop all the way down, the RSI has fallen below 50, and I'm panicking, almost cutting losses and running away!

But then the ridiculous part comes! On one hand, analysts are saying "it will drop to 60,000", and on the other hand, institutions are secretly buying the dip? ETF data shows that funds haven't fled but instead have a net inflow of 140 million; the old holders are also stubbornly holding on and have managed to keep the support level at 30,000 dollars. What's more dramatic is that the U.S. is still cutting rates and providing liquidity, draining and flooding at the same time, and the crypto market has directly become a tug-of-war between bulls and bears!

Now the whole internet is in an uproar: pessimists say, "At the end of the year, funds will be tight, and the rate hike must break 70,000"; optimists bet, "The bad news has already been digested, and it will rebound to 90,000 when it lands". I am now uneasy holding my coins, afraid of dropping below my stop-loss, but also afraid of missing the rebound!

Are you panicking and cutting losses for safety, or do you dare to buy the dip and take a risk? Do you think BTC can hold 70,000, or will it drop below? Share your thoughts in the comments, will there be a pump tonight... #美联储降息 #日本加息 #美国非农数据超预期

Recently, it seems that everyone is more concerned about the announcement of interest rates by the Bank of Japan at midnight on the 19th (0:00). The main worry is whether a rate hike will lead to a sudden market crash and what impact it will have on various assets.

Let me share my own views, which reflect my actual operational thinking.

First, let's review the previous situations:

· On March 19, 2024, Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, officially ending the negative interest rate policy. That day, Bitcoin fell by 8%, but quickly rebounded, entering a longer period of fluctuation.
· On July 31 of the same year, the interest rate was raised from 0% to 0.25%. After the announcement, Bitcoin began to fall from around $65,000, hitting a low of $49,000 on August 5, but then it rose all the way up, reaching a new high in November.
· On January 24, 2025, the third rate hike occurred, increasing from 0.25% to 0.5%. In the following three days, it fluctuated down by 8%, and later in March-April, due to the impact of the trade war, it retraced by 30%, but eventually rose again and reached a new high.

So how will it go this time?

In fact, the Bank of Japan itself does not want to raise interest rates; it is more about the United States wanting them to do so—America wants to lower interest rates but also wants to control the flow of global capital, especially stabilizing the pricing power of precious metals (like gold). Therefore, in the short term, after a rise in gold, there is likely to be a noticeable correction.

As for U.S. stocks, especially core assets like Nasdaq, I believe the trend will still be upward with fluctuations.

Will there be a market crash or something major happening, as many people worry?

I think not for the time being. Because this expectation of a rate hike is already known even to ordinary retail investors, institutions have long been prepared. Bitcoin has already fallen from $116,000 to $80,000 in advance, which actually has already released part of the risk. So if the market does fall after the actual rate hike, I think it would be an opportunity to buy core assets.

I myself am also starting with a base position, habitually laying out, but I will never use high leverage—either spot or very low leverage. Recently, I estimate that Bitcoin is very likely to test around $100,000 again.

In short, that's it, personal opinion, for reference only. #日本加息

#日本加息 Let's talk about the Bank of Japan raising interest rates!!! Many fans are very worried that this interest rate hike in Japan will trigger a black swan event. Should we clear out our funds? First of all, Japan is raising interest rates because the United States is urging Japan to do so. The U.S. Treasury Secretary has repeatedly urged the Bank of Japan to adopt a sounder monetary policy, including allowing interest rate hikes to reduce frequent interventions in the foreign exchange market. Why is the U.S. doing this?
The continuous depreciation of the yen will force Japanese authorities to use foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the market, and a large portion of these reserves is held in U.S. Treasury bonds (Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. debt, holding over $1 trillion). Interventions often involve selling U.S. bonds to exchange for dollars, which can push up U.S. bond yields and increase the borrowing costs for the U.S. government, even exacerbating the U.S. debt crisis. Therefore, the U.S. urges Japan to raise interest rates to gently appreciate the yen, compress the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., thereby reducing the need for intervention. This is tantamount to indirectly protecting the U.S. bond market and avoiding short-term liquidity shocks. In the U.S.-Japan trade agreement in July 2025, Japan committed to investing $550 billion in the U.S., further reinforcing this reciprocity: Japan raises interest rates for self-protection, while the U.S. gains capital inflow and a buffer for its debt. If Japan does not raise interest rates, the intensifying depreciation of the yen may trigger a global capital return to Japan, pulling liquidity away from U.S. assets, posing a threat to U.S. stocks and bond markets. By urging Japan to raise interest rates, the U.S. extends the lifespan of the dollar system and avoids a more severe global adjustment after 2025. However, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, it may trigger disorderly unwinding of Carry Trade, selling off dollar assets, which could lead to a collapse in the U.S. market. After all this, what should we do? Cash is king, prepare to close positions and buy the dip. If a crash really occurs, it could be a golden opportunity. To maintain the dollar's hegemony, the U.S. will definitely inflate the AI bubble to the point where global capital has no choice but to get on board, so the Federal Reserve will certainly continue to lower interest rates and expand its balance sheet next year, and gold will rise to unimaginable levels. Therefore, this interest rate hike in Japan is not a crisis, but rather an opportunity. The decline of dollar hegemony and the rise of the East and the fall of the West is an inevitable trend in historical development; the future belongs to the East. Let's go all in; it's time to bet on the nation's fortune!!!

#美联储降息 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Cryptocurrency market major downturn alert!
Starting from the afternoon of December 15, 2025, it has been plunging!
$BTC has fallen below 86k!!
$ETH has also fallen below 3,000!!
My goodness $BNB has even fallen below 850🥹
The total market value has shrunk to 3.1-3.2 trillion dollars, with over 200-300 million dollars liquidated in 24 hours. Why oh why oh why 🥹

1. Bank of Japan interest rate hike expectations explode: There is a 98% probability of a 25bp rate hike on the 19th decision, with yen arbitrage funds flowing back, liquidity tightening, and risk assets under pressure across the board. Historical similar events have triggered BTC corrections of 20-30%, and high leverage amplifies the tragedy.

2. U.S. stocks linked to a decline: The Nasdaq fell nearly 2% last Friday, with concerns about the AI bubble spreading. The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and the stock market exceeds 0.5, and gold has also corrected, with a clear synchronous effect.

3. Year-end effect: Institutions reduce positions and take profits before Christmas, liquidity thins out, and weekend volatility amplifies. Since the high point of 126k in October, it has corrected nearly 30%, leading to a chain liquidation of long positions.

4. Macroeconomic pressure: Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have weakened, with this week's CPI/employment data upcoming, and ETF inflows slowing down.

Subsequent market speculation! On the 16th, BTC is expected to see the 85-88k range, but extreme fear index levels of 16-25 are often a buy signal. In the short term, beware of further fluctuations before the BOJ decision on the 19th; breaking below 85k may test 80k support; if it holds steady, institutions hoarding coins + long-term bullish market structure remains unchanged, possibly rebounding in Q1 2026. Don't play with leverage recklessly, DYOR!
#日本加息

The interest rate hike in Japan on Friday seems to be a done deal, with Polymarket already running at 98% 🤷‍♀️ But has the market really priced it in? The withdrawal of liquidity is very real. Today, someone scared you by saying they would stop your card, and the difference between that and actually stopping your card and becoming broke is still quite significant 😂 #日本加息 #加密市场观察 #多头清算

Why does everyone think Japan's interest rate hike is going to be a big deal! The first two times resulted in significant drops, and this time the rate hike might still exceed expectations at 0.75. People are still bearish, and it could plummet, then just have a rebound 😂
If you disagree, come debate
#日本加息

🔥🔥Tonight, the non-farm payroll data will be released, and the market faces a critical decision moment.
Note: Musk's cute dog series👉小🪷奶🪷狗 p u p p i e s 🔥🔥

This is not just an employment report; it is the 'final referee' of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. If the data is weak, easing expectations will rise, liquidity imagination will return, and the crypto market may see a sentiment recovery; however, if the data is strong, expectations for rate cuts will diminish, and risk assets may face further pressure.

Meanwhile, the pressure of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan still looms overhead. Historically, every time the yen tightens liquidity, Bitcoin experiences a significant correction. Last night, BTC quickly fell back to around 85,000, reflecting the cautious sentiment in the market. At the end of the year, funds are already tight; if the rebound cannot stand firm in the key range, subsequent volatility risks should still be monitored. $ETH $ZEC

This night marks the starting point of the New Year’s market, or is it a significant cooling? The answer will be revealed soon.
#美国初请失业金人数 #日本加息 #加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息

Japan's interest rates hit a 30-year high! Is 0.75% about to be implemented? Will Bitcoin and Ethereum plummet? Will U.S. stocks crash?

It seems the Bank of Japan is really going to do something big 🔥
The monetary policy meeting on December 18-19 is very likely to raise the interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%! This is the highest level in 30 years since 1995!

More than half of the policy committee supports it, and the government hasn't opposed it. Now we just need to assess the risks of a stock market crash and a sharp rise in the yen, and we should have results by Friday!

This is also the second interest rate hike after 11 months since January 2025, which feels like it will impact a lot of things — the yen exchange rate, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, the gold market, and even the A shares might be affected? Let's look forward to it...

#日本加息 #日元汇率

$BTC $ETH The market is facing a key turning point, how to accurately layout amid the turbulence? Three strategies to help you navigate the fluctuations

On December 16, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $86,000, with a decline of more than 3% within 24 hours, and the total liquidation amount reached $594 million. This pullback is mainly influenced by two major macro expectations:

1. The market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19. Historical data shows that interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are often accompanied by significant adjustments in Bitcoin prices;

2. The uncertainty surrounding the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chairman has increased, leading the market to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

In terms of impact, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected, it may continue to suppress risk asset sentiment in the short term, but in the medium to long term, it still depends on the global liquidity environment.

Changes in the selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman may affect the pace of future monetary policy, but the market still expects nearly three rate cuts next year, which contrasts with the cautious guidance from the Fed. This may lead to fluctuating market sentiment.

For retail investors, the current market conditions do not suggest blindly pursuing short positions or bottom-fishing. The following strategies can be adopted:

1. Control positions and retain sufficient cash to cope with fluctuations;

2. Pay attention to the signals from the Federal Reserve's policy and the market reaction after the Bank of Japan's decision, waiting for sentiment to clarify;

3. Gradually build positions in medium to long-term favorable targets in batches, utilizing market fluctuations for accumulation. Remember: during periods of macro uncertainty, discipline is more important than predictions.

Stay calm, keep observing; the market always nurtures opportunities in fluctuations. Follow Mig, participate in every attack by Mig villagers! Mig will announce specific entry times and real-time news in the village every day! #日本加息 #加密市场观察

$BNB There are many posts on the square about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, but I find that most of them are quite pessimistic, and some are even a bit alarmist! In fact, a rise of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, and even if it is negative news, the market will have digested it in advance! At most, on the day the news is announced, major funds may take advantage of the negative news to sell off first and then rally, that's all! The impact of interest rate hikes and cuts at least has a 50-day delay, just like the US dollar has raised interest rates three times in a row, and there has not been the liquidity injection that we retail investors expected to significantly boost the cryptocurrency market! The market will never change direction because of one or two pieces of good or bad news; it will only continue to move forward in the already established trend! #日本加息