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Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Waller supports interest rate cuts! U.S. stocks opened high and rose, so Bitcoin and Ethereum surged for a bit! But the daily interest rate hikes still make bulls cautious, so after the rise, it fell again! The increase lacks momentum support, so the rise is not decisive! At least this is how it is before the interest rate hike on Friday! When the rate hike lands, the drop could be quite frightening! #美联储降息
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比特币失守9万关口后反弹乏力：宏观与技术的博弈看点
比特币今天表现很差，上午长时间在88000美元附近横盘整理，多空双方都没有明显动作；午间出现一波快速回调，一度回踩至86200美元，随后短暂反弹至87200美元，但没能守住涨幅再度回落。截至目前比特币在86500美元附近维持窄幅震荡。整体波动幅度收窄，市场交投动能明显偏弱，多空都显得十分谨慎。这种“横盘-回踩-弱反弹”的走势，本质还是宏观政策的压制与技术面支撑的博弈，而即将到来的日本央行决议，仍是打破当前僵局的核心变量。
宏观层面，现在市场明显被“双重紧缩预期”压得有点喘不过气，这也是压制比特币价格的主要原因。眼下最让市场紧张的利空因素，当属日本央行的货币政策动向——12月18到19日的政策会议上，加息概率已经冲到了94%，市场大多预期利率会从0.5%涨到0.75%，这可是1995年以来的新高。这个预期一出来，大家就开始担心日元套息交易可能大规模平仓，光是12月以来，这个因素就让比特币跌了大概6%。更值得留意的是，过去日本央行三次加息，比特币都跌了20%到30%，所以现在市场的避险情绪一直居高不下。
美联储这边的鹰派表态，也让压力更明显了。波士顿联储主席柯林斯直接暗示明年可能会暂停降息，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯也说当前政策“位置不错”，这一下就把市场对1月份降息的期待给浇灭了。受这影响，比特币ETF出现了3.4亿美元的净流出，市场里的资金活跃度明显降低。不过还好，美国经济数据给出了点缓冲——11月就业人数比预期多，但失业率却飙到了4.6%的四年新高，这种“经济有点弱”的信号，让部分资金还保留着对后续宽松的一丝期待，也没让比特币出现恐慌性抛售。
看完宏观面的大环境，咱们再聚焦到盘面本身。技术面上，比特币整体弱势的格局没有改变，但85000-86000美元这个新的支撑区间开始显现韧性，成为当下短期多空争夺的核心。从日线图上看，它仍处在10月份12.6万美元高点下来的下降通道里，价格始终被各项均线压制，MACD死叉后维持向下发散状态，RSI指标在43的中性偏空位置徘徊，中期偏弱的趋势没有松动。值得注意的是，午间回踩86200美元后快速反弹，再次印证了低位支撑的有效性，但反弹未能站稳87200美元便再度回落，也暴露了多头动能的严重不足。
虽然支撑位暂时守住，但市场动能弱的问题愈发突出。目前价格已是近期第三次测试86000美元附近支撑，该区域既是前期回调低点，也是斐波那契关键回撤位，链上数据显示85000美元附近有阶段性买盘托底，日线级别的RSI看涨背离信号仍在（价格低位震荡但RSI未创新低），说明下跌动能确实在边际减弱。但短期反弹乏力的特征更明显：4小时图上，即便MACD绿柱有所缩窄，但反弹时成交量并未同步放大，属于“无量反弹”；RSI虽脱离超卖区却始终在40附近徘徊，未能形成有效上攻动能，再加上永续合约市场卖压未明显缓解，导致每次反弹都难以持续。
至于接下来会怎么走，很大程度上要看两大关键事件的落地情况。如果比特币能守住85000美元这道关键支撑，而且日本央行加息后能说点“软话”——比如暗示之后可能暂停加息，再加上美国CPI数据比预期低，让大家又燃起对宽松的期待，那比特币大概率能启动一波修复反弹，先看88500到90000美元的阻力区，要是能突破过去，还能再往上试试92000美元的下降趋势线。
但要是85000美元的支撑被有效跌破，而且日本央行如预期加25基点或者超预期加了50个基点，引发套息资金大规模撤离，那价格可能会加速下跌，先跌到82000到80000美元区间，甚至可能去测试80000美元这个整数关口的支撑力度。
现在市场其实已经进入了“去杠杆后的磨底阶段”，高杠杆的仓位基本都清得差不多了，现在的抛压主要来自现货的正常调整，但愿意进场抄底的资金也不多，成交量一直缩着。对普通投资者来说，短期不妨就按85000到88500美元的震荡区间来应对，尽量避免盲目抄底或追高。重点得盯着12月18到19日的日本央行决议，还有明天的美国CPI数据，等出现明确的突破信号了再动手会更稳妥。另外也得留意，年底不少机构要兑现收益，可能会引发短期的流动性波动，这一点也不能大意。
本文仅代表个人观点。因文章推送时间的关系，以上观点或建议不具实时性，仅供参考。投资有风险，入市需谨慎，请基于自身实际情况做出合理决策。
文/杰恩crypto
#比特币走势分析 #日本加息
宏观层面，现在市场明显被“双重紧缩预期”压得有点喘不过气，这也是压制比特币价格的主要原因。眼下最让市场紧张的利空因素，当属日本央行的货币政策动向——12月18到19日的政策会议上，加息概率已经冲到了94%，市场大多预期利率会从0.5%涨到0.75%，这可是1995年以来的新高。这个预期一出来，大家就开始担心日元套息交易可能大规模平仓，光是12月以来，这个因素就让比特币跌了大概6%。更值得留意的是，过去日本央行三次加息，比特币都跌了20%到30%，所以现在市场的避险情绪一直居高不下。
美联储这边的鹰派表态，也让压力更明显了。波士顿联储主席柯林斯直接暗示明年可能会暂停降息，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯也说当前政策“位置不错”，这一下就把市场对1月份降息的期待给浇灭了。受这影响，比特币ETF出现了3.4亿美元的净流出，市场里的资金活跃度明显降低。不过还好，美国经济数据给出了点缓冲——11月就业人数比预期多，但失业率却飙到了4.6%的四年新高，这种“经济有点弱”的信号，让部分资金还保留着对后续宽松的一丝期待，也没让比特币出现恐慌性抛售。
看完宏观面的大环境，咱们再聚焦到盘面本身。技术面上，比特币整体弱势的格局没有改变，但85000-86000美元这个新的支撑区间开始显现韧性，成为当下短期多空争夺的核心。从日线图上看，它仍处在10月份12.6万美元高点下来的下降通道里，价格始终被各项均线压制，MACD死叉后维持向下发散状态，RSI指标在43的中性偏空位置徘徊，中期偏弱的趋势没有松动。值得注意的是，午间回踩86200美元后快速反弹，再次印证了低位支撑的有效性，但反弹未能站稳87200美元便再度回落，也暴露了多头动能的严重不足。
虽然支撑位暂时守住，但市场动能弱的问题愈发突出。目前价格已是近期第三次测试86000美元附近支撑，该区域既是前期回调低点，也是斐波那契关键回撤位，链上数据显示85000美元附近有阶段性买盘托底，日线级别的RSI看涨背离信号仍在（价格低位震荡但RSI未创新低），说明下跌动能确实在边际减弱。但短期反弹乏力的特征更明显：4小时图上，即便MACD绿柱有所缩窄，但反弹时成交量并未同步放大，属于“无量反弹”；RSI虽脱离超卖区却始终在40附近徘徊，未能形成有效上攻动能，再加上永续合约市场卖压未明显缓解，导致每次反弹都难以持续。
至于接下来会怎么走，很大程度上要看两大关键事件的落地情况。如果比特币能守住85000美元这道关键支撑，而且日本央行加息后能说点“软话”——比如暗示之后可能暂停加息，再加上美国CPI数据比预期低，让大家又燃起对宽松的期待，那比特币大概率能启动一波修复反弹，先看88500到90000美元的阻力区，要是能突破过去，还能再往上试试92000美元的下降趋势线。
但要是85000美元的支撑被有效跌破，而且日本央行如预期加25基点或者超预期加了50个基点，引发套息资金大规模撤离，那价格可能会加速下跌，先跌到82000到80000美元区间，甚至可能去测试80000美元这个整数关口的支撑力度。
现在市场其实已经进入了“去杠杆后的磨底阶段”，高杠杆的仓位基本都清得差不多了，现在的抛压主要来自现货的正常调整，但愿意进场抄底的资金也不多，成交量一直缩着。对普通投资者来说，短期不妨就按85000到88500美元的震荡区间来应对，尽量避免盲目抄底或追高。重点得盯着12月18到19日的日本央行决议，还有明天的美国CPI数据，等出现明确的突破信号了再动手会更稳妥。另外也得留意，年底不少机构要兑现收益，可能会引发短期的流动性波动，这一点也不能大意。
本文仅代表个人观点。因文章推送时间的关系，以上观点或建议不具实时性，仅供参考。投资有风险，入市需谨慎，请基于自身实际情况做出合理决策。
文/杰恩crypto
#比特币走势分析 #日本加息
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The non-farm data is a mixed bag, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices performing mediocrely! Japan's interest rate hike is the biggest threat to bulls!
Last night, the U.S. November non-farm data revealed an increase in employment numbers slightly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly soared to 4.6%, a four-year high! At the same time, October non-farm employment saw the largest drop in five years, and retail sales unexpectedly stagnated. The conflicting employment data caused significant fluctuations in the crypto market for a short time, but the amplitude range was not large. Bitcoin surged to 88000 and then dipped to 86000, quickly rebounding to 88100 before retreating, and then the price remained oscillating in the 88000–87000 range until the early morning.
On a macro level, the mixed non-farm data has warmed up the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy, with a slight rebound in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in March next year, which strengthens the case for rate cuts to some extent boosting Bitcoin's price. However, ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the market's panic sentiment remains strong, and the rebound strength is insufficient.
Technically, the Bitcoin daily chart's lower support price rebounds, but the upper moving averages have a strong dead cross suppression. The four-hour MACD indicator shows a decrease in volume, suggesting a potential rebound, but the RSI is about to enter the overbought zone, and the hourly momentum is also decreasing. After the rebound repair, the price will likely decline again with weak fluctuations. Today's intraday upper short-term resistance focuses on the four-hour mid-track at 88500 and the 90000 level, while the lower short-term support temporarily focuses on 86000 and yesterday's low of 85000.
Ethereum fell below the 3000 level yesterday and has been consolidating in the 2980–2890 range throughout the day. After the non-farm data was released last night, it also oscillated briefly before settling down again. In the early morning, it continued to consolidate in the 2970–2920 range until this morning. The daily chart's Bollinger Bands are flattening, with prices testing the lower support. The RSI's dead cross is moving towards the oversold zone, and the MACD bears are showing weak volume expansion, but the four-hour RSI is about to form a golden cross with decreasing volume, and the hourly MACD bulls are starting to show weak volume expansion, indicating a short-term demand for price rebound. The upper resistance for today is temporarily focused on 3000 and 3080 levels, while the short-term support still focuses on 2900 and 2840 levels.
Today, during the day, we will observe the rebound correction situation, with a focus on the impact of multiple Federal Reserve executives' speeches on the market in the evening.
BTC Short-term
Support: 86000, 85000
Resistance: 88500, 90000
ETH Short-term
Support: 2900, 2840
Resistance: 3000, 3080
#比特币走势分析 #ETH走势分析
Last night, the U.S. November non-farm data revealed an increase in employment numbers slightly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly soared to 4.6%, a four-year high! At the same time, October non-farm employment saw the largest drop in five years, and retail sales unexpectedly stagnated. The conflicting employment data caused significant fluctuations in the crypto market for a short time, but the amplitude range was not large. Bitcoin surged to 88000 and then dipped to 86000, quickly rebounding to 88100 before retreating, and then the price remained oscillating in the 88000–87000 range until the early morning.
On a macro level, the mixed non-farm data has warmed up the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy, with a slight rebound in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in March next year, which strengthens the case for rate cuts to some extent boosting Bitcoin's price. However, ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the market's panic sentiment remains strong, and the rebound strength is insufficient.
Technically, the Bitcoin daily chart's lower support price rebounds, but the upper moving averages have a strong dead cross suppression. The four-hour MACD indicator shows a decrease in volume, suggesting a potential rebound, but the RSI is about to enter the overbought zone, and the hourly momentum is also decreasing. After the rebound repair, the price will likely decline again with weak fluctuations. Today's intraday upper short-term resistance focuses on the four-hour mid-track at 88500 and the 90000 level, while the lower short-term support temporarily focuses on 86000 and yesterday's low of 85000.
Ethereum fell below the 3000 level yesterday and has been consolidating in the 2980–2890 range throughout the day. After the non-farm data was released last night, it also oscillated briefly before settling down again. In the early morning, it continued to consolidate in the 2970–2920 range until this morning. The daily chart's Bollinger Bands are flattening, with prices testing the lower support. The RSI's dead cross is moving towards the oversold zone, and the MACD bears are showing weak volume expansion, but the four-hour RSI is about to form a golden cross with decreasing volume, and the hourly MACD bulls are starting to show weak volume expansion, indicating a short-term demand for price rebound. The upper resistance for today is temporarily focused on 3000 and 3080 levels, while the short-term support still focuses on 2900 and 2840 levels.
Today, during the day, we will observe the rebound correction situation, with a focus on the impact of multiple Federal Reserve executives' speeches on the market in the evening.
BTC Short-term
Support: 86000, 85000
Resistance: 88500, 90000
ETH Short-term
Support: 2900, 2840
Resistance: 3000, 3080
#比特币走势分析 #ETH走势分析
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Japan's rate hike has not arrived, has Bitcoin already fallen? Analyzing the domino effect and subsequent trends
The Federal Reserve completed a 25 basis point rate cut last week as expected, which was thought to inject a boost into the risk asset market, but unexpectedly, the cryptocurrency market cooled at the start. In the first two trading days of this week, Bitcoin continued to weaken, oscillating around $85,000 in the morning, while Ethereum directly lost the critical $3,000 threshold, and the overall crypto market fell into a correction phase. The linked cryptocurrency concept stocks also faced pressure, with Strategy and Circle both approaching a decline of nearly 7% during the day, leading platform Coinbase dropping over 5%, while mining companies like CLSK, HUT, and WULF saw declines exceeding 10%, and panic sentiment spread throughout the market.
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Bank of Japan to Raise Rates to 30-Year High, Will Yen Depreciation Pressure Remain Difficult to Alleviate?
The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates to the highest level in 30 years on Friday, and has committed to continuing to increase borrowing costs. Despite facing resistance from U.S. tariffs and the impact of a dovish prime minister taking office, the Bank of Japan will complete two rate hikes within the year.
Following this rate hike, the Bank of Japan's policy rate remains low by global standards, but for Governor Ueda Kazuo, this will be another milestone in his efforts to normalize monetary policy — Japan has long been accustomed to unconventional easing policies and near-zero interest rates.
Following this rate hike, the Bank of Japan's policy rate remains low by global standards, but for Governor Ueda Kazuo, this will be another milestone in his efforts to normalize monetary policy — Japan has long been accustomed to unconventional easing policies and near-zero interest rates.
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The Federal Reserve Chair Race Faces New Uncertainties: Hassett Encountering High-Level Resistance, the 'Dual Kevin' Showdown Intensifies
According to informed sources, Kevin Hassett's candidacy for Federal Reserve Chair was once seen as a foregone conclusion, but now faces resistance from some senior figures who can speak to President Trump.
Insiders say there are concerns that the National Economic Council Director is too close to the president, ironically, this is precisely why he initially became the frontrunner to succeed current Chair Powell. This resistance may explain why candidate interviews were canceled in early December and then rescheduled for last week.
Trump told reporters he had a candidate, but in an interview with The Wall Street Journal last Friday, he stated that former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh has now tied with Hassett at the top of the Federal Reserve candidate list, which surprised investors greatly. This statement caused Hassett's odds in the prediction market to plummet.
Insiders say there are concerns that the National Economic Council Director is too close to the president, ironically, this is precisely why he initially became the frontrunner to succeed current Chair Powell. This resistance may explain why candidate interviews were canceled in early December and then rescheduled for last week.
Trump told reporters he had a candidate, but in an interview with The Wall Street Journal last Friday, he stated that former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh has now tied with Hassett at the top of the Federal Reserve candidate list, which surprised investors greatly. This statement caused Hassett's odds in the prediction market to plummet.
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The United States will simultaneously release the non-farm employment reports for October and November today. Recent reports surrounding the job market have been nothing short of 'dramatic.' Due to the previous government shutdown and changes in decision-making bodies, data on unemployment rates and new job figures that should have been released at the beginning of the month have been delayed by several weeks. Interestingly, the newly released data covers the employment situation for two different months, but the statistical sample is incomplete due to reasons such as some federal employees being forced to stop working and some layoff compensations expiring. Mainstream media often headlines with 'missing numbers' and 'survey sample interference,' emphasizing the report's 'unreliability' and suggesting that the market may misinterpret it in haste.
The mainstream focus revolves around data gaps, yet overlooks the political implications hidden behind the 'delayed + merged' release. When the market hears 'missing data,' it usually interprets it as 'unknown.' However, for the market, this 'incompleteness' may actually make the policy side more susceptible to short-term fluctuations, potentially leading to unexpected actions at the next interest rate meeting. The real point of concern should be the unexpected changes in 'layoff numbers and labor force participation rates' and what they imply for substantive economic growth, which may lead some to misjudge employment trends, thinking that the labor market is weaker or stronger than expected.
In my view, this kind of incomplete data is just like opening a blind box; it can easily surprise you! So don't expect too much! It’s very likely to just fluctuate a bit and then return to a stable position! #比特币价格 #非农数据
The mainstream focus revolves around data gaps, yet overlooks the political implications hidden behind the 'delayed + merged' release. When the market hears 'missing data,' it usually interprets it as 'unknown.' However, for the market, this 'incompleteness' may actually make the policy side more susceptible to short-term fluctuations, potentially leading to unexpected actions at the next interest rate meeting. The real point of concern should be the unexpected changes in 'layoff numbers and labor force participation rates' and what they imply for substantive economic growth, which may lead some to misjudge employment trends, thinking that the labor market is weaker or stronger than expected.
In my view, this kind of incomplete data is just like opening a blind box; it can easily surprise you! So don't expect too much! It’s very likely to just fluctuate a bit and then return to a stable position! #比特币价格 #非农数据
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Bitcoin fell below 88,000, Ethereum lost 3,000, the bearish trend continues! Will it continue to drop tonight during non-farm payroll night?
Bitcoin broke 90,000 and Ethereum broke 3,000 in key areas, with the decline continuing to expand. Several high-ranking officials from the Federal Reserve spoke, highlighting serious internal divisions, and market panic intensified! Tonight is non-farm payroll night; will it continue to decline or ease and rebound? Focus on this!
Bitcoin rebounded around 90,000 yesterday morning and remained in a sideways trend until the U.S. market started to decline last night, expanding the drop to a low of around 85,000 in the early morning before correcting. Ethereum also rebounded around 3,170 during the day but lacked momentum, dropping to a low of around 2,900 in the early morning before rebounding.
Macro-wise, after two high-ranking officials reiterated their opposition to rate cuts last Friday, several Federal Reserve officials spoke again last night expressing differing opinions. Milan reiterated opposition to the rationale for a 25 basis point rate cut and supported aggressive rate cuts, but Williams sent a stabilizing signal, stating that monetary policy is now 'well-positioned' to balance the two major risks of inflation and employment. Collins stated that supporting the rate cut decision is difficult. Since the 25 basis point rate cut last week, the divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding policy paths has become public. The market reacted with clear panic, with a significant sell-off in U.S. stocks during the day, and the cryptocurrency market also saw a correlated drop and expanded losses.
Bitcoin rebounded around 90,000 yesterday morning and remained in a sideways trend until the U.S. market started to decline last night, expanding the drop to a low of around 85,000 in the early morning before correcting. Ethereum also rebounded around 3,170 during the day but lacked momentum, dropping to a low of around 2,900 in the early morning before rebounding.
Macro-wise, after two high-ranking officials reiterated their opposition to rate cuts last Friday, several Federal Reserve officials spoke again last night expressing differing opinions. Milan reiterated opposition to the rationale for a 25 basis point rate cut and supported aggressive rate cuts, but Williams sent a stabilizing signal, stating that monetary policy is now 'well-positioned' to balance the two major risks of inflation and employment. Collins stated that supporting the rate cut decision is difficult. Since the 25 basis point rate cut last week, the divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding policy paths has become public. The market reacted with clear panic, with a significant sell-off in U.S. stocks during the day, and the cryptocurrency market also saw a correlated drop and expanded losses.
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Federal Reserve Governor Milan: Potential inflation is close to the target, the Federal Reserve's policy stance is too tight! Opposes a 25 basis point rate cut, but supports a 50 basis point rate cut, Milan doesn't quite understand you! The drop in Bitcoin tonight has nothing to do with you, right? #美联储降息
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Can Bitcoin recover the 90,000 mark tonight? The speeches of senior Federal Reserve officials are the key!
Bitcoin fell slowly last night and continued until this morning, with a low around 87,500 before a pullback for correction. During the day, it rebounded back to the 90,000 mark, facing pressure and moving sideways, oscillating until now. This level is a transitional zone for bulls and bears; whether it's a previous pullback or a future rebound, this area has been quite controversial. Morning analysis indicates that the rebound in this area is one of the resistances, which will encounter pressure, and this is reflected in the current price drop.
From a technical perspective, the lower Bollinger band on the daily chart for Bitcoin is in the 88,000 to 87,500 region, which is a key support area to watch tonight. As for the upper 90,000 mark and the downward-moving upper band around 91,200 on the four-hour chart, these are the resistance areas to pay attention to tonight.
As for Ethereum, the volume has decreased, and the upper band on the four-hour chart has narrowed to 3,180, while the upper band on the daily chart has shrunk to 3,300, which are short-term resistances to be aware of. The lower band has moved up to 3,050, which is a short-term support to keep an eye on.
Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, the entire range is further narrowing, as mentioned in the weekend analysis; the market change will occur within this week's data trends.
During the evening session, the speeches of several senior Federal Reserve officials will have a significant impact on the market. Pay attention to how the information during the speeches affects the stock market and Bitcoin's price movements. #比特币走势分析 #ETH走势分析
Bitcoin fell slowly last night and continued until this morning, with a low around 87,500 before a pullback for correction. During the day, it rebounded back to the 90,000 mark, facing pressure and moving sideways, oscillating until now. This level is a transitional zone for bulls and bears; whether it's a previous pullback or a future rebound, this area has been quite controversial. Morning analysis indicates that the rebound in this area is one of the resistances, which will encounter pressure, and this is reflected in the current price drop.
From a technical perspective, the lower Bollinger band on the daily chart for Bitcoin is in the 88,000 to 87,500 region, which is a key support area to watch tonight. As for the upper 90,000 mark and the downward-moving upper band around 91,200 on the four-hour chart, these are the resistance areas to pay attention to tonight.
As for Ethereum, the volume has decreased, and the upper band on the four-hour chart has narrowed to 3,180, while the upper band on the daily chart has shrunk to 3,300, which are short-term resistances to be aware of. The lower band has moved up to 3,050, which is a short-term support to keep an eye on.
Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, the entire range is further narrowing, as mentioned in the weekend analysis; the market change will occur within this week's data trends.
During the evening session, the speeches of several senior Federal Reserve officials will have a significant impact on the market. Pay attention to how the information during the speeches affects the stock market and Bitcoin's price movements. #比特币走势分析 #ETH走势分析
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Japan's interest rates hit a 30-year high! Is 0.75% about to be implemented? Will Bitcoin and Ethereum plummet? Will U.S. stocks crash?
It seems the Bank of Japan is really going to do something big 🔥
The monetary policy meeting on December 18-19 is very likely to raise the interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%! This is the highest level in 30 years since 1995!
More than half of the policy committee supports it, and the government hasn't opposed it. Now we just need to assess the risks of a stock market crash and a sharp rise in the yen, and we should have results by Friday!
This is also the second interest rate hike after 11 months since January 2025, which feels like it will impact a lot of things — the yen exchange rate, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, the gold market, and even the A shares might be affected? Let's look forward to it...
#日本加息 #日元汇率
It seems the Bank of Japan is really going to do something big 🔥
The monetary policy meeting on December 18-19 is very likely to raise the interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%! This is the highest level in 30 years since 1995!
More than half of the policy committee supports it, and the government hasn't opposed it. Now we just need to assess the risks of a stock market crash and a sharp rise in the yen, and we should have results by Friday!
This is also the second interest rate hike after 11 months since January 2025, which feels like it will impact a lot of things — the yen exchange rate, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, the gold market, and even the A shares might be affected? Let's look forward to it...
#日本加息 #日元汇率
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Bitcoin has fallen below the 90,000 mark, and Ethereum at 3,000 is also in jeopardy! How much can it rebound this time? Difficult! Difficult!
Bitcoin and Ethereum have been consolidating over the weekend, until last night when they began to decline slowly, and today in the morning the decline has intensified. Bitcoin is once again testing the 88,000 mark, while Ethereum also dipped to 3,020 before rebounding.
Macro-wise, several senior officials from the Federal Reserve reiterated their opposition to interest rate cuts last Friday evening. Harker stated his changed position in the early hours that if interest rates are cut, he would consider Trump's opinion but would insist on the independence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Last week, the favorable impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has already taken effect, and this week the probability of a rate hike in Japan continues to rise, causing panic and cautious sentiment in the market to intensify, putting pressure on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others. However, the non-farm CPI data will be released soon; if the data is favorable, it may strengthen the case for interest rate cuts and bring some relief to the market.
On the technical front, after Bitcoin fell below the 90,000 mark, the daily chart price is currently operating near the lower Bollinger band at 87,300, where there will be some support. Additionally, the hourly RSI is in the oversold zone and is turning upwards, indicating a potential rebound today. The short-term resistance above is focused on the 90,000 mark and the 91,500 level, while the short-term support below is at 87,500. If the downward momentum is strong, it may test the 86,000 level, which is also a critical support.
Ethereum is relatively resilient; the daily chart price is operating at the middle band, and the four-hour Bollinger band continues to open downwards, as does the hourly chart. However, the RSI is also in the oversold zone, indicating a need for a rebound repair as the price declines. The 3,000-2,950 area is a key support zone today; if it breaks again, it may test the 2,800 area like before. The short-term resistance above is at 3,150 and 3,250.
During the day, focus on the rebound repair and consolidation situation, with special attention to the speeches of several senior Federal Reserve officials in the evening.
BTC short-term
Support: 87,500, 86,000
Resistance: 90,000, 91,500
ETH short-term
Support: 3,000, 2,950
Resistance: 3,150, 3,250
⚠️ Friendly reminder: Focus on the rebound during the day, then watch for a pullback and consolidation.
#比特币走势分析 #ETH走势分析
Bitcoin and Ethereum have been consolidating over the weekend, until last night when they began to decline slowly, and today in the morning the decline has intensified. Bitcoin is once again testing the 88,000 mark, while Ethereum also dipped to 3,020 before rebounding.
Macro-wise, several senior officials from the Federal Reserve reiterated their opposition to interest rate cuts last Friday evening. Harker stated his changed position in the early hours that if interest rates are cut, he would consider Trump's opinion but would insist on the independence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Last week, the favorable impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has already taken effect, and this week the probability of a rate hike in Japan continues to rise, causing panic and cautious sentiment in the market to intensify, putting pressure on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others. However, the non-farm CPI data will be released soon; if the data is favorable, it may strengthen the case for interest rate cuts and bring some relief to the market.
On the technical front, after Bitcoin fell below the 90,000 mark, the daily chart price is currently operating near the lower Bollinger band at 87,300, where there will be some support. Additionally, the hourly RSI is in the oversold zone and is turning upwards, indicating a potential rebound today. The short-term resistance above is focused on the 90,000 mark and the 91,500 level, while the short-term support below is at 87,500. If the downward momentum is strong, it may test the 86,000 level, which is also a critical support.
Ethereum is relatively resilient; the daily chart price is operating at the middle band, and the four-hour Bollinger band continues to open downwards, as does the hourly chart. However, the RSI is also in the oversold zone, indicating a need for a rebound repair as the price declines. The 3,000-2,950 area is a key support zone today; if it breaks again, it may test the 2,800 area like before. The short-term resistance above is at 3,150 and 3,250.
During the day, focus on the rebound repair and consolidation situation, with special attention to the speeches of several senior Federal Reserve officials in the evening.
BTC short-term
Support: 87,500, 86,000
Resistance: 90,000, 91,500
ETH short-term
Support: 3,000, 2,950
Resistance: 3,150, 3,250
⚠️ Friendly reminder: Focus on the rebound during the day, then watch for a pullback and consolidation.
#比特币走势分析 #ETH走势分析
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This week's non-farm payrolls, CPI, Japan's interest rate hike, and several major economic data are coming! Where will Bitcoin drop to? #比特币走势分析 $BTC
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The storm of Bitcoin and Ethereum's turning point is imminent! Next week’s non-farm payrolls and CPI + Japan's rate hike will ignite the global market!
The Bitcoin and Ethereum turning point is coming! Storm warning for next week! The Federal Reserve's rate cut is besieged by hawks, with the UK, Europe, and Japan central banks' interest rate decisions ready for action. Non-farm payrolls and CPI will also be announced soon, and the US dollar index's 98 defense line is teetering. The calm in the cryptocurrency market is about to be broken!
Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate cut event made the market quite active, but buying on expectations and selling on facts ultimately only allowed Bitcoin to surge and then retreat. Overall, Bitcoin went from 89000 at the beginning of the week to 94000, before returning to around 90000 by the weekend. Ethereum also moved from 3000 to 3400 at the beginning of the week, before dropping back to around 3100 by the weekend. After a roller coaster ride, the prices returned to where they were a week ago. Overall, it is still quite calm, but more like the calm before the storm!
Last week, the Federal Reserve's rate cut event made the market quite active, but buying on expectations and selling on facts ultimately only allowed Bitcoin to surge and then retreat. Overall, Bitcoin went from 89000 at the beginning of the week to 94000, before returning to around 90000 by the weekend. Ethereum also moved from 3000 to 3400 at the beginning of the week, before dropping back to around 3100 by the weekend. After a roller coaster ride, the prices returned to where they were a week ago. Overall, it is still quite calm, but more like the calm before the storm!
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The Bank of Japan has dropped a bomb again! Not only will they raise interest rates, but the rate hike cycle will be extended, and the rate must exceed 0.75% before they are satisfied! Next week, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will come out, and once the meeting results are released, it seems that Bitcoin will take a significant hit! #日本央行加息 #比特币预测
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Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have fallen to a critical area again, and this weekend's sideways movement faces a new choice!
Last night, several Federal Reserve officials spoke, including Goolsby and Schmied, who reiterated their opposition to rate cuts. They stated that due to the lack of current economic data, further data should be awaited before considering rate cuts, and expressed concerns about inflation. Goolsby also stated that the Federal Reserve should maintain its independence and should not lower interest rates to finance government debt. The other two officials also mentioned the need for more data for reference. During the speeches, U.S. stocks continued to widen their losses, and Bitcoin and Ethereum, which had been consolidating during the day, also fell, with Bitcoin dropping back below the 90,000 mark, erasing the early morning rebound space, while Ethereum retraced to around 3,050.
On the technical side, Bitcoin continues to be pressured and has fallen back to the middle track, with RSI forming a death cross, and bearish momentum is increasing. However, at the four-hour level, the price is supported by the lower track, and at the hourly level, there is a rebound demand from the oversold zone, with MACD showing a decrease in volume. In the short term, the price may have a rebound demand, but the rebound strength will not be significant under the waning macro favorable conditions. Additionally, as it is the weekend, trading is expected to weaken, and a slight rebound after correction will likely maintain a weak oscillation.
Currently, the 90,000 mark for Bitcoin continues to be contested, with short-term resistance above focusing on 91,500 and 92,800, and short-term support below focusing on 89,000 and 88,000. Ethereum is facing a critical area at the 3,000 mark, with short-term resistance above focusing on 3,150 and 3,250, and short-term support below focusing on 3,000 and 2,950.
This weekend, significant fluctuations are unlikely, and next week's non-farm payrolls are a key focus!
BTC Short-term
Support: 89,000, 88,000📈
Resistance: 91,500, 92,800📉
ETH Short-term
Support: 3,000, 2,950📈
Resistance: 3,150, 3,250📉
Note: First pay attention to the strength of the rebound before focusing on the retracement and oscillation.
#比特币走势分析 #ETH走势分析
Last night, several Federal Reserve officials spoke, including Goolsby and Schmied, who reiterated their opposition to rate cuts. They stated that due to the lack of current economic data, further data should be awaited before considering rate cuts, and expressed concerns about inflation. Goolsby also stated that the Federal Reserve should maintain its independence and should not lower interest rates to finance government debt. The other two officials also mentioned the need for more data for reference. During the speeches, U.S. stocks continued to widen their losses, and Bitcoin and Ethereum, which had been consolidating during the day, also fell, with Bitcoin dropping back below the 90,000 mark, erasing the early morning rebound space, while Ethereum retraced to around 3,050.
On the technical side, Bitcoin continues to be pressured and has fallen back to the middle track, with RSI forming a death cross, and bearish momentum is increasing. However, at the four-hour level, the price is supported by the lower track, and at the hourly level, there is a rebound demand from the oversold zone, with MACD showing a decrease in volume. In the short term, the price may have a rebound demand, but the rebound strength will not be significant under the waning macro favorable conditions. Additionally, as it is the weekend, trading is expected to weaken, and a slight rebound after correction will likely maintain a weak oscillation.
Currently, the 90,000 mark for Bitcoin continues to be contested, with short-term resistance above focusing on 91,500 and 92,800, and short-term support below focusing on 89,000 and 88,000. Ethereum is facing a critical area at the 3,000 mark, with short-term resistance above focusing on 3,150 and 3,250, and short-term support below focusing on 3,000 and 2,950.
This weekend, significant fluctuations are unlikely, and next week's non-farm payrolls are a key focus!
BTC Short-term
Support: 89,000, 88,000📈
Resistance: 91,500, 92,800📉
ETH Short-term
Support: 3,000, 2,950📈
Resistance: 3,150, 3,250📉
Note: First pay attention to the strength of the rebound before focusing on the retracement and oscillation.
#比特币走势分析 #ETH走势分析
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Federal Reserve's Hamak: Leaning towards a more restrictive stance, current policy is close to neutral! This is against lowering interest rates! #美联储降息
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Before the market change: Will Bitcoin first surge to $96,500 and then pull back, or will it directly test $86,000?
Bitcoin has recently shown a significant narrowing of volatility, with the candlestick chart oscillating around a narrow range for several consecutive days, and the forces of bulls and bears are in a brief balance. Currently, it is at a key node for choosing the direction of the breakout. The formation of this pattern is derived both from the technical convergence of the range and is deeply tied to the market's cautious sentiment after the macro-level favorable conditions have faded.
From a key point of view, the upper $94,000 area has formed a clear structural resistance zone — this position is not only a dense area of trapped positions from previous highs and subsequent declines but also resonates with the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart and the 60-day moving average, creating resistance that has been tested multiple times without effective breakthrough, becoming a barrier that is difficult for short-term bulls to surpass. The support below has steadily moved up from the previous $86,000 to around $89,000, and this change is not merely a technical correction; rather, it benefits from the enhanced buying strength after multiple bottoms in this range. On-chain data shows that there is sustained spot buying at around $89,000, forming the core defensive line for short-term bulls.
From a key point of view, the upper $94,000 area has formed a clear structural resistance zone — this position is not only a dense area of trapped positions from previous highs and subsequent declines but also resonates with the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart and the 60-day moving average, creating resistance that has been tested multiple times without effective breakthrough, becoming a barrier that is difficult for short-term bulls to surpass. The support below has steadily moved up from the previous $86,000 to around $89,000, and this change is not merely a technical correction; rather, it benefits from the enhanced buying strength after multiple bottoms in this range. On-chain data shows that there is sustained spot buying at around $89,000, forming the core defensive line for short-term bulls.
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After the recent "stabilization-style interest rate cut," the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in January is as high as 75%! However, if the subsequent economic data continues to reflect serious economic and employment issues, then the probability of an interest rate cut in January may gradually rise!
The Federal Reserve announced another interest rate cut yesterday, which the international market generally interpreted as an "insurance-style" policy to address economic cooling and rising unemployment rates. However, the latest economic data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States suddenly surged, with a weekly increase marking the largest increment since the early days of the pandemic. Some consumer goods and service companies plan to scale back hiring and spending, and mainstream media view this as an early warning of economic weakness.
Most reports focus on the Federal Reserve's reactive easing policies but overlook the complexity of labor demand structure. Many companies are in a semi-watchful state, not yet significantly laying off employees but also being relatively cautious about large-scale rehiring. If economic activity unexpectedly rebounds early next year, overly pessimistic unemployment rate forecasts may be quickly revised, making further interest rate cuts less urgent; conversely, if employment data continues to deteriorate, it could lead the market to further increase expectations for easing. #美联储降息
The Federal Reserve announced another interest rate cut yesterday, which the international market generally interpreted as an "insurance-style" policy to address economic cooling and rising unemployment rates. However, the latest economic data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States suddenly surged, with a weekly increase marking the largest increment since the early days of the pandemic. Some consumer goods and service companies plan to scale back hiring and spending, and mainstream media view this as an early warning of economic weakness.
Most reports focus on the Federal Reserve's reactive easing policies but overlook the complexity of labor demand structure. Many companies are in a semi-watchful state, not yet significantly laying off employees but also being relatively cautious about large-scale rehiring. If economic activity unexpectedly rebounds early next year, overly pessimistic unemployment rate forecasts may be quickly revised, making further interest rate cuts less urgent; conversely, if employment data continues to deteriorate, it could lead the market to further increase expectations for easing. #美联储降息
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