The non-farm data is a mixed bag, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices performing mediocrely! Japan's interest rate hike is the biggest threat to bulls!
Last night, the U.S. November non-farm data revealed an increase in employment numbers slightly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly soared to 4.6%, a four-year high! At the same time, October non-farm employment saw the largest drop in five years, and retail sales unexpectedly stagnated. The conflicting employment data caused significant fluctuations in the crypto market for a short time, but the amplitude range was not large. Bitcoin surged to 88000 and then dipped to 86000, quickly rebounding to 88100 before retreating, and then the price remained oscillating in the 88000–87000 range until the early morning.
On a macro level, the mixed non-farm data has warmed up the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy, with a slight rebound in the likelihood of interest rate cuts in March next year, which strengthens the case for rate cuts to some extent boosting Bitcoin's price. However, ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the market's panic sentiment remains strong, and the rebound strength is insufficient.
Technically, the Bitcoin daily chart's lower support price rebounds, but the upper moving averages have a strong dead cross suppression. The four-hour MACD indicator shows a decrease in volume, suggesting a potential rebound, but the RSI is about to enter the overbought zone, and the hourly momentum is also decreasing. After the rebound repair, the price will likely decline again with weak fluctuations. Today's intraday upper short-term resistance focuses on the four-hour mid-track at 88500 and the 90000 level, while the lower short-term support temporarily focuses on 86000 and yesterday's low of 85000.
Ethereum fell below the 3000 level yesterday and has been consolidating in the 2980–2890 range throughout the day. After the non-farm data was released last night, it also oscillated briefly before settling down again. In the early morning, it continued to consolidate in the 2970–2920 range until this morning. The daily chart's Bollinger Bands are flattening, with prices testing the lower support. The RSI's dead cross is moving towards the oversold zone, and the MACD bears are showing weak volume expansion, but the four-hour RSI is about to form a golden cross with decreasing volume, and the hourly MACD bulls are starting to show weak volume expansion, indicating a short-term demand for price rebound. The upper resistance for today is temporarily focused on 3000 and 3080 levels, while the short-term support still focuses on 2900 and 2840 levels.
Today, during the day, we will observe the rebound correction situation, with a focus on the impact of multiple Federal Reserve executives' speeches on the market in the evening.
BTC Short-term
Support: 86000, 85000
Resistance: 88500, 90000
ETH Short-term
Support: 2900, 2840
Resistance: 3000, 3080
