交易员雷哥

The Bank of Japan is expected to decide whether to raise interest rates on Thursday or Friday this week. Currently, prediction platforms indicate a high probability of a rate hike at 98%, which means that the likelihood of a rate increase by the Bank of Japan this week is almost certain. So the question arises, what impact will a rate hike by Japan have on the cryptocurrency market?

In recent instances of Japan's interest rate hikes, in March 2024, July 2024, January 2025, and this upcoming one that is almost a certainty.

Theoretically, when Japan raises interest rates, funds from around the world should flow back. This means that the liquidity in our market would be drained, so it should theoretically decline. However! The first three rate hikes did not have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, and there was no noticeable decline in the 1-2 months before and after.

Looking into the reasons, it may be because, although Japan's interest rate hikes would lead large investors who borrow yen on leverage to close their long positions in international markets, our cryptocurrency market remains a very small part of the vast financial system, so the impact is limited.

Additionally, with Christmas approaching this month, historical data shows that over the past 11 years, the number of times the market has risen around Christmas exceeds half. The actual instances of decline are few. Therefore, it is inevitable that there will be an optimistic trend around Christmas.

Anyway, even if there is a decline before Christmas, I am 100% confident that the space is limited. It will just be another test of the 80000 level. That's all. #币圈 #日本加息

#BTC走势分析

BTC四小时级别呈现明显空头主导态势，空头趋势未改。

MACD指标的DIF与DEA在零轴下方持续发散，空头动能仍在增强；EMA均线系统呈弱势排列，当前虽有弱反弹，但反弹力度受限。

依旧87000附近箜，目标84000#币圈

#ETH走势分析 #美联储降息

非农数据今晚来袭，市场或迎剧烈波动 | 日内操作指南

根据老美劳工统计局日程，今晚21:30将公布11月季调后非农就业人口数据。作为美联储货币政策的核心观测指标之一，本次数据将直接影响市场对12月及后续利率路径的预期调整，需警惕数据公布前后的双向波动。

当前市场预期新增就业人数约为 18-20万人，若实际数据显著高于预期（如＞22万人），可能削弱美联储近期降息紧迫性，USD或短线走强，对加密市场形成压力；若数据低于预期（如＜15万人），则可能强化市场对宽松政策的押注，推动咱们短线小反弹。

单一数据难以改变中长期趋势，但可能成为短期行情催化剂，所以不管数据怎么样，不要被短期的假象哄骗，稍后发文今日的主流操作建议，欢迎验证思路！#币圈 #BTC走势分析

#ETH走势分析 #比特币走势分析

December 16th Leige Currency Analysis
1、 BTC has been going in circles and has directly followed the US stock market's closing, or we can say that the crypto market has followed the stock market in a downward spiral; let's wait and see, after all, everyone on this bus catching flying knives is a person;
​2、ETH no matter how strong a person is, they can't withstand the elder brother's continuous slide down, so it has also broken through defenses; the big guys are now deeply trapped, and we can only see who the target is now;
​3、SOL no matter what the fundamentals are, it cannot change the fact that retail investors are not getting “excited”; after all, it’s all various “infrastructure” and lacks the joy of last year's meme summer;
​4、Bitcoin briefly fell below $86,000, at one point dropping over 3% within 24 hours. In the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced liquidations of $594 million, with long positions liquidating $497 million, and a total of 178,874 people were liquidated globally. #币圈

#比特币 #ETH走势分析
A major victory for the Air Force is imminent! The target of Ethereum at 2800 is just around the corner, and Bitcoin at 84000 is only a step away!
The downward trend we accurately predicted is being perfectly played out in the market.
Ethereum is approaching the first target of 2800, and the trumpet for Bitcoin's advance towards
84000 is about to sound.
Tonight, all key data could ignite the market—non-farm payrolls, Federal Reserve movements, Nvidia's performance; any one of these pieces of news could become the last straw to break the bulls.
A storm is coming, please keep a close eye on the market and be ready for the moment of change!
Continue to hold short positions, Bitcoin target 84000, Ethereum's next target after breaking 2800 looks towards 2600! #币圈

#比特币
The big pancake 90,000 times tried and failed to break, took a day to eat 1,000 points and retreated, the bag is safe.
#币圈

#ETH走势分析

12.15 Ray Ge's Midday Thoughts
From the trend of Bitcoin, the bullish strength at the daily level is weakening, with prices touching the lower bound of the range and closing in the green, providing short-term support; in the 4-hour chart, bearish strength is weakening and closing in the green, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged; in the hourly chart, bullish strength is increasing, with prices approaching the middle track showing signs of breaking upwards, indicating a short-term strong fluctuation. However, the overall direction is still downward, and it is advisable to short on highs during the day, selecting good resistance levels and strictly controlling risks.
Short on Bitcoin in the 92000-90000 range, targeting a continuous drop below 89000-87000.
Short on Ethereum in the 3180-3140 range, targeting a continuous drop below 3100-3080. #比特币 #币圈

#美联储降息
Powell has about 6 months left in his term, and the question now is not whether to change personnel, but who to change and when to set the pricing. Treasury Secretary Besant is reluctant to take over, and the market currently defaults to the optimal solution being Hassett.

Why him? First, he publicly supports cryptocurrency, which has a clear advantage in the current political environment; second, he clearly supports 'existing economic data supports further interest rate cuts'; third, his economic philosophy aligns closely with Trump's.

Once Hassett enters the succession channel, the Fed's 'hawkish neutral' pricing will be replaced by 'policy front-loaded easing expectations'. I dare say, the probability of continuing interest rate cuts in the second half of next year is structurally certain.

However, it should be noted that interest rate cuts ≠ unlimited monetary easing. The truly impactful monetary easing will basically end around May next year, and subsequent interest rate cuts will be more about 'policy confirmation' and 'emotional endorsement'. The first half of the year will see pricing driven by liquidity expectations, while the second half will be driven by the political cycle and policy direction in terms of valuation. The market has always speculated on expectations and will only push hard once they materialize.

The cryptocurrency market presents both opportunities and risks; everyone should closely follow market dynamics and make rational decisions! #币圈 #ETH走势分析

#比特币走势分析
Big Cake Thunder Operation Strategy

Currently, the daily level medium-term trend indicator has been broken, indicating that short-term upward momentum is weakening, selling pressure may increase, and key moving averages are suppressing the price, which is simultaneously below key moving averages such as MA7, MA30, and EMA7, further confirming the short-term weak pattern.

🉑Choose a suitable position near 90000-90500

Target One: 89100, a conservative approach can reduce positions or partially liquidate

Target Two: 88200, final target

The strategy has a time limit; for those feeling lost without direction, please like and follow, and feel free to consult #币圈 .

#ETH走势分析 Market Overview
1. In the last 24 hours, both BTC and ETH have fallen, while altcoins have shown mixed performance. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased by 2.03% to approximately $3.01 trillion, with the market overall being weak due to ETF fund outflows and macroeconomic impacts;
2. As of last Friday's close (Dec 12), the S&P 500 fell by 1.07%, the Dow Jones fell by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq fell by 1.69%, with Broadcom's earnings report causing a nearly 11% drop;
2) Market Highlights
1. Bitcoin briefly fell below $88,000, with Ethereum and Solana also declining. In the last 24 hours, a total of 115,561 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $271 million;
2. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on December 15 at 8:00 AM, valued at $13.2 million; Sei Network (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on the same day at 8:00 PM, valued at $7.1 million, which may trigger volatility;
3. Trump: A new Federal Reserve chairperson will be selected soon, and the new chair may favor lowering interest rates;
4. The U.S. SEC has released a guide for cryptocurrency wallets and custodial investors, reminding to pay attention to risks related to third-party custodians' re-staking actions and asset co-mingling risks; #比特币 #美联储降息 #币圈

#比特币 # 12.15 Brother Ray's Morning Analysis
Technical indicators show that the KDJ has confirmed a high position death cross and is continuously diverging downwards, indicating a short-term weakening and dominance of bears. Although the MACD histogram is red, it is expanding below the zero line, indicating that bear momentum has not decreased. Additionally, the trading volume during the market rebound has not effectively supported this movement, suggesting low willingness among bulls to follow up. Before the trend has effectively reversed, rebounds are mostly technical corrections, and the morning operation can still adhere to a high short recommendation.
The large coin is short in the 90800-89800 range, with a target near 88500-87000; if it breaks down, it can continue to decline! #币圈

#比特币走势分析
Bitcoin has been bearish so much today, and in the evening it seems to have dropped sharply again. Isn't this meaning obvious?
Next week, the coin price will definitely fluctuate around 86000. ​
#币圈

#Heavyweight Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) officially announced that it is preparing for a potential IPO in 2026, which could create the largest public offering in history. Based on the latest internal share price of $421, the company's valuation has reached $800 billion. If the valuation rises to Elon Musk's preset $1.5 trillion after going public, he, holding approximately 42% of the shares, is expected to become the first individual in the world to have a net worth exceeding $1 trillion.
This IPO plans to raise over $30 billion, aimed at supporting several long-term strategies of the company: maintaining the high-frequency launches of Starship, building a space artificial intelligence data center, and continuing to advance the lunar base and Mars settlement plans. In just six months, SpaceX's valuation has doubled from about $400 billion, surpassing OpenAI and reclaiming the top position on the global unicorn list.
Currently, SpaceX is the most active commercial space company in terms of launch missions, with its Starlink network having over 9,000 satellites in orbit, providing high-speed satellite internet services. Musk revealed that the company expects to generate approximately $15.5 billion in revenue this year and has achieved positive free cash flow for several consecutive years.
In Musk's vision, going public is a key step towards a city on Mars. He has estimated that transporting 1 million tons of supplies to Mars could cost $1 trillion. This record-breaking fundraising may inject decisive momentum into this space expedition.

#ETH走势分析
Ethereum Weekly Review: Long-term Layout Opportunities Gradually Emerging, How to Seize Under Bearish Trend?

This week, Ethereum reached a high of around 3450, followed by a continuous pullback to the 3040 line. The current price is oscillating around 3100, with rebound strength clearly limited, and the overall trend is weak.

From a weekly perspective, Ethereum is operating near the middle-lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with the MACD indicator below the zero axis and continuously expanding, indicating a clear bearish trend. Even if a rebound occurs, it is more of a technical correction and can be seen as an opportunity to position short.

You can short near 3250, add to the position around 3320, set a stop loss at 3370, and initially target 3040, with a breakdown target at 2800. #币圈

#比特币走势分析
Currently in a structurally weak and directionless narrow fluctuation range.

The upper side is constrained by strong resistance around 94,200, while there is support near 87,000 on the lower side.

As long as the price fails to effectively break through the resistance zone of 94,200-95,000, the mid-term technical outlook still leans bearish. If this area is successfully breached, it could open up space to test upwards towards 98,000 and even 102,000 (52-week moving average).

December 14
Bitcoin: 90,300-90,800 (↓), looking at 89,800-89,400#币圈

#ETH走势分析 12-14 Midday View

Current ETH price is around 3107, with an intraday increase of -0.2%. There has been a slight pullback during the day, and overall it remains in a state of oscillation and consolidation. Ethereum quickly dropped to the 3040 line previously, forming a short-term low, followed by a weak rebound for repair. However, the rebound process lacked volume, and the price has repeatedly faced resistance below 3150. The overall market is still defined as a technical repair after a decline + range oscillation, with no reversal signal appearing at the trend level.

BOLL: The upper band is at 3128, the middle band is at 3108, and the lower band is at 3088; the Bollinger Bands show a tightening state, with the lower band rising and the middle band flattening. The price is repeatedly oscillating around the middle band, indicating that short-term downward pressure is easing, but the upper space is still under pressure. If it effectively breaks below 3100, the rebound structure will be damaged, and one should be cautious of a retracement to the 3050–3000 support zone; if it can stabilize above 3150 with volume, then there are conditions to further test the 3180–3200 pressure zone.

MACD: The current market is mainly focused on repair, with bullish momentum insufficient to drive a trending rise, leaning more towards range oscillation in the short term.

Long Position Strategy (Buy on Dips)
Entry Position: 3050 – 3075
Target Position: 3120 – 3150
Stop Loss Position: Below 3030
In a consolidating repair market, it's advised to participate with light positions and take profits when possible.

Short Position Strategy (Defensive on Rebounds)
Entry Position: 3150 – 3180
Target Position: 3105 – 3070
Stop Loss Position: Above 3200
If the rebound breaks through 3180 with volume, then abandon the short position strategy and wait for new structure confirmation.

ETH is currently still operating within the repair range after the decline, with the price center temporarily stabilizing, but overall it has not yet escaped medium-term pressure.

ETH is still in a technical rebound phase, with 3100 being the short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish; if it holds steady, it maintains oscillation and repair, but if it loses ground, caution is needed for a retracement to 3000; the 3150–3180 zone above is key resistance, and it is not advisable to chase bullish before a volume breakthrough. #币圈

Bitcoin stabilizes above 90,000, operating below the midline of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour level, with strong support at the lower band, repeatedly bouncing back quickly after testing. This shows that the support in this area is effective, and the strategy should remain focused on low long positions.

Weekend fluctuations are slow, and it is not advisable to hold onto positions for too long; take profits when you can.
#比特币走势分析 #币圈

#BTC走势分析
Intra-day increase of 3.5%, breaking through the 90,000 mark, within the 88,000-94,500 fluctuation range, approaching a direction selection node.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands: The 20-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average forming a golden cross, the price is above all major moving averages, the Bollinger Bands are widening, and the 4-hour chart is testing the upper band pressure, with the 20-day EMA providing strong support.

RSI Indicator: The daily RSI is about 58, in a healthy bullish range, not overbought, and upward momentum still has room to continue.

Volume and Sentiment: Trading volume has expanded compared to the previous period, market participation is recovering; futures funding rate is slightly positive, sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with no signs of overheating, total open contracts across the network reached a historical high of 42.3 billion USD.

Key Levels: Resistance zone 92,000-94,500 (breakout target 96,000-97,500), support zone 89,000-90,000 (strong support at 87,500, moving average convergence point).

Operational Tips

Short-term fluctuations are the main focus, need to closely monitor the effective break of resistance at 94,500 and support at 89,000, strictly control positions before the direction is clear, beware of false breakout scenarios, and set reasonable stop-losses. #加密市场反弹 #币圈

#比特币跳水29万人爆仓
Another day of fluctuations, with a sluggish market. But friends, don't let your guard down; Fridays have always been a big deal. Considering this week's market is overall showing a range of fluctuations, there is a high probability of a significant move on Friday. In terms of live trading arrangements, early morning long positions are currently held, and friends who follow Zhuo Wei's early morning strategy can hold patiently, waiting for the market to continue rising.

Currently, the overall upward trend of the market has not shown any reversal signals, and bullish momentum continues to be released, maintaining a steady upward trend. The hourly chart indicates that the market is oscillating and fluctuating in the upper Bollinger Band region, with long and short forces temporarily balanced. However, the middle Bollinger Band has formed strong support; after the market corrects and pulls back to the middle band, it quickly rebounds. The bottom shadow of the K-line continues to appear, fully reflecting strong buying power below, and the short-term bullish trend has a strong certainty of continuation. The evening trading strategy remains unchanged; continue to maintain a bullish outlook.

Long positions around 92000 for Bitcoin Target 94000
Long positions around 3230 for Ethereum Target 3350 #币圈 #比特币

#BTC走势分析
The big pancake and small long line wrap up today, here comes the remaining classic of the next eight relocations, 1️⃣0️⃣w oil to 👋!
Grasping the trend is this smooth~ trading time for space, guarding the brilliance with patience! #比特币 #币圈