#美联储降息

Powell has about 6 months left in his term, and the question now is not whether to change personnel, but who to change and when to set the pricing. Treasury Secretary Besant is reluctant to take over, and the market currently defaults to the optimal solution being Hassett.

Why him? First, he publicly supports cryptocurrency, which has a clear advantage in the current political environment; second, he clearly supports 'existing economic data supports further interest rate cuts'; third, his economic philosophy aligns closely with Trump's.

Once Hassett enters the succession channel, the Fed's 'hawkish neutral' pricing will be replaced by 'policy front-loaded easing expectations'. I dare say, the probability of continuing interest rate cuts in the second half of next year is structurally certain.

However, it should be noted that interest rate cuts ≠ unlimited monetary easing. The truly impactful monetary easing will basically end around May next year, and subsequent interest rate cuts will be more about 'policy confirmation' and 'emotional endorsement'. The first half of the year will see pricing driven by liquidity expectations, while the second half will be driven by the political cycle and policy direction in terms of valuation. The market has always speculated on expectations and will only push hard once they materialize.

The cryptocurrency market presents both opportunities and risks; everyone should closely follow market dynamics and make rational decisions! #币圈 #ETH走势分析