#日本加息 Let's talk about the Bank of Japan raising interest rates!!! Many fans are very worried that this interest rate hike in Japan will trigger a black swan event. Should we clear out our funds? First of all, Japan is raising interest rates because the United States is urging Japan to do so. The U.S. Treasury Secretary has repeatedly urged the Bank of Japan to adopt a sounder monetary policy, including allowing interest rate hikes to reduce frequent interventions in the foreign exchange market. Why is the U.S. doing this?
The continuous depreciation of the yen will force Japanese authorities to use foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the market, and a large portion of these reserves is held in U.S. Treasury bonds (Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. debt, holding over $1 trillion). Interventions often involve selling U.S. bonds to exchange for dollars, which can push up U.S. bond yields and increase the borrowing costs for the U.S. government, even exacerbating the U.S. debt crisis. Therefore, the U.S. urges Japan to raise interest rates to gently appreciate the yen, compress the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., thereby reducing the need for intervention. This is tantamount to indirectly protecting the U.S. bond market and avoiding short-term liquidity shocks. In the U.S.-Japan trade agreement in July 2025, Japan committed to investing $550 billion in the U.S., further reinforcing this reciprocity: Japan raises interest rates for self-protection, while the U.S. gains capital inflow and a buffer for its debt. If Japan does not raise interest rates, the intensifying depreciation of the yen may trigger a global capital return to Japan, pulling liquidity away from U.S. assets, posing a threat to U.S. stocks and bond markets. By urging Japan to raise interest rates, the U.S. extends the lifespan of the dollar system and avoids a more severe global adjustment after 2025. However, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, it may trigger disorderly unwinding of Carry Trade, selling off dollar assets, which could lead to a collapse in the U.S. market. After all this, what should we do? Cash is king, prepare to close positions and buy the dip. If a crash really occurs, it could be a golden opportunity. To maintain the dollar's hegemony, the U.S. will definitely inflate the AI bubble to the point where global capital has no choice but to get on board, so the Federal Reserve will certainly continue to lower interest rates and expand its balance sheet next year, and gold will rise to unimaginable levels. Therefore, this interest rate hike in Japan is not a crisis, but rather an opportunity. The decline of dollar hegemony and the rise of the East and the fall of the West is an inevitable trend in historical development; the future belongs to the East. Let's go all in; it's time to bet on the nation's fortune!!!