Hello everyone, I am Zhou Yi. Today we won't waste words and will get straight to the point—what's the outlook for ETH? Is it going to continue to drop or will there be a comeback? Let's analyze the news and technical indicators to peel back the layers of confusion for you!
News: Two major 'black swans' are flapping their wings at the same time
Why is the market so timid today? Two major news items have splashed a bucket of cold water on the market:
The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday
If it really happens, historical data for Bitcoin tells you—every time Japan raises interest rates, BTC tends to drop over 20%! It fell 23% in March, 26% in July, and 31% in January next year... Can ETH stand alone? Difficult!The probability of a change in the Federal Reserve chair has greatly reversed.
Waller has overtaken Harker, becoming a major contender for Trump's nomination. This guy's style is unknown, and the market fears 'uncertainty,' causing digital assets and stocks to tremble together.
Moreover, although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, it only plans to lower them once in 2026, which is too far from the market's expectation of three cuts—expectations of tightening liquidity are quietly fermenting.
Technical Analysis: The 1-hour candlestick has released a dangerous signal.
Take a look at this 1-hour chart, several key signals are already flashing red:
A death cross trend has formed; the yellow and white lines continue to decline below the zero axis, which is a typical bearish arrangement.
The rebound pressure is obvious, with every rise being pushed back, high-pressure levels feel like a wall;
Key levels have broken, and the pullback support has not held, with the second support also precarious.
Unique Highlight: Signs of a volume breakout are faintly appearing, indicating that funds are testing for a bottom.
I Ching Perspective: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium to long term!
I know many people are already panicking, but my judgment is:
From tonight to tomorrow, ETH is likely to experience an oversold rebound. Why? Because negative news has mostly played out in the short term, technical signals show an increase in volume, and over $500 million in global leveraged long positions have been liquidated—making the market easier to maneuver in the short term, leading to a technical rebound.
But in the medium to long term, I remain bearish. With Japan raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve turning hawkish, and the chair change turmoil, under these three pressures, it is extremely difficult for ETH to truly break through its previous high. It is highly likely to rebound and then continue to oscillate downward, seeking bottom support.
I Ching Suggestion: Enter quickly and exit quickly, don't be greedy!
If your position is light, you can try a small long near the second support to bet on a rebound;
If your position is heavy, remember to reduce your holdings when the rebound reaches the resistance level, don't cling to battles;
For friends with medium to long-term layouts, I suggest waiting a bit longer; BTC at the $70,000 range may be the real 'golden pit.'
I am the I Ching, not bragging, nor a charlatan, only speaking with data and logic. The I Ching publishes three strategies daily in the village. If your position is not $5 million, please follow the real-time suggestions from I Ching Village to avoid liquidation risks. The current market is unpredictable, and each villager has different positions; please update the entry points announced by the I Ching in the village in real-time!#ETH走势分析
