Countdown fifteen minutes for the market to welcome a major data bomb: the U.S. non-farm report is released back-to-back! Due to the previous government shutdown, not only will the November data be published as usual, but the delayed "incomplete version" of October will also be made up—this is equivalent to revealing two cards at once.

The current macro narrative is quietly shifting. Last week, the Federal Reserve pressed the rate cut button, and Powell has already warned that the job market may weaken. Tonight's key question is: will his warning become a reality?

Understand these three points, and you will be able to respond calmly:

First, the expectations themselves indicate the problem. The market estimates that about 50,000 new jobs were added in November, and the unemployment rate may climb to 4.5%. The weaker the data, the more likely it is to force the Federal Reserve to increase the rate cuts next year, which may not necessarily be a bad thing for risk areas like crypto assets.

Second, pay attention to the "flaws" in the October data. Due to obstacles in the statistical process, the likelihood of distortion in this part of the data is high, so do not rush to conclusions based solely on surface numbers.

Finally, what the market truly expects is a "soft landing" scenario. As long as there is no cliff-like drop in employment, a moderate weakening will instead be interpreted as a steadier pace of rate cuts and more predictable liquidity easing—this is precisely the foundation for a positive market.

My advice is: don't get hung up on specific numbers; focus on observing the gap between data and expectations. As long as the results remain under control, weak data may turn into medium-term benefits; if the data unexpectedly shows strength, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of tightening policy expectations.

From my personal observation, once liquidity easing becomes a consensus, market sentiment often gradually warms up. Stay patient and be prepared, and let’s pay attention to tonight's data trends. #非农就业数据