《The Two Types of People in the Crypto World: Those Who Understand 'Configuration Signals' and Those Who Get Lost in 'Target Prices'》

Tom Lee's primary audience is institutions rather than retail investors, which explains the key contradiction in the market: he publicly holds a bullish outlook on ETH to $8,500, but in November, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $2.4 billion. This is because retail investors hear 'target prices', while institutions receive 'configuration signals'.

The data appears contradictory: ETH target prices are calling for a rise, with ETF funds flowing out at $BTC , while $ETH /$SOL ETPs continue to flow in. In reality, institutions read the configuration logic in reports — with interest rates approaching 3.75%, ETH staking yields are close to the risk-free rate, so against a backdrop of limited rate cut expectations, institutions are shifting their allocation from BTC to ETH, increasing the proportion from 5% to 15%.

Wall Street analysts do not predict market trends but rather provide compliant allocation reasons for institutions. History repeatedly confirms: when retail investors chase target prices, institutions have already completed their layouts and rebalance during high sentiment.

Retail investors should stop fixating on target prices and instead focus on: ETF fund flows, on-chain whale dynamics, and macro interest rate changes. When most people discuss 'how much it can rise', smart money is already calculating 'how much to allocate'. This is the fundamental difference between the two.

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