In 2026, the monetary policies of major global central banks are expected to shift from "synchronized tightening or easing" to a differentiated era of "each sweeping the snow in front of their own door."

🏁Impact on global financial markets:

1. Increased exchange rate volatility: The widening interest rate differential will dominate the foreign exchange market. If the dollar weakens due to interest rate cuts, it may lead to a surge in volatility of non-dollar currencies, increasing the cost and difficulty of corporate hedging.

2. Disruption of asset correlations: The traditional "Merrill Lynch Clock" model may fail, with the hedging relationships between stocks, bonds, and commodities (such as the stock-bond seesaw) weakening or even reversing, and the sensitivity of asset prices to policy signals will significantly increase.

3. Complicated capital flows: Emerging markets face a dual pull: a weaker dollar alleviates their debt pressure, but if the European Central Bank and others stop cutting interest rates, it may trigger capital flows back to developed markets, making cross-border capital flow predictions more difficult.

🏁Special impact on the cryptocurrency market:

Cryptocurrencies will face a complex dual identity:

· Attractiveness as "non-traditional assets": When traditional asset correlations are chaotic, crypto assets may be viewed by some funds as a unique diversification tool to hedge against "disordered differentiation of monetary policy."

· Facing more direct macro transmission: The market cannot be insulated from external environments, as the policy uncertainty of major central banks and the dynamics of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will directly impact short-term volatility.

· Dual effects of dollar liquidity: A weaker dollar theoretically benefits risk assets, but the crypto market needs to pay more attention to its own "internal logic," such as substantial progress in U.S. regulatory policies, which may have a more direct impact.

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