Several hours ago, the cryptocurrency market faced strong selling pressure again, leading to a significant price decline. Bitcoin broke below an important technical support level in the early hours of today, dipping below $86,000 at one point during the day. According to the latest quote, Bitcoin is currently reported at around $86,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 2.8%. Ethereum's performance has been relatively weak, having briefly lost the $2,900 mark during the day, and is currently hovering around $2,950, with a daily drop of 5.4%.
The recent sharp drop in prices has triggered a large-scale liquidation of leveraged positions. Relevant statistics show that the total liquidation amount in the market over the past 24 hours is approximately $468 million, involving more than 147,000 traders. The current market sentiment indicator is in the 'extreme fear' range.
Bitcoin (BTC) market analysis and strategy reference: The Bitcoin price rebounded from yesterday's low of 87532 to 89970, but shifted to a fluctuating downward trend during the night to early morning, with a morning low of 85084. As the rebound failed to effectively break through the 90000 level, buying pressure weakened, leading to consecutive breaks below 87500 and 86000 support levels, triggering sell-offs based on technical patterns. The daily trend has weakened somewhat, and some programmed trading instructions have exacerbated short-term declines. The current price is consolidating around 85800, technical indicators suggest a possibility of a correction from oversold conditions, but the overall downward trend has not changed. Key attention should be paid to the validity of the 85000 support level; if this level is lost, it may further test down to 84500, even reaching the 83750-82000 zone (corresponding to previous lows and key technical retracement levels). Initial resistance above is around 88000 (recent trading dense area), and effective breaks above this region are needed to alleviate short-term pressure; stronger resistance is around 89700-90000. It is recommended to observe the price's retesting of the lower support area and the intensity of any rebound throughout the day.
Strategy thoughts: Consider lightly attempting short positions when the price rebounds to the 87500-88000 range, targeting the 86500-86000 area. If the price retraces to the 85000-85500 range and finds support, consider lightly attempting long positions, targeting the 86500-87000 area.
Ethereum (ETH) market analysis and strategy reference: Ethereum rebounded from around 3023 to 3176 yesterday, but fell synchronously during the night to morning, with a low of 2892, currently consolidating around 2940. Its movement is closely linked to Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, the price has broken below the psychological level of 3000 dollars and key technical support at 2960. Short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, indicating a weak short-term trend. However, some oscillation indicators have rebounded from oversold ranges, and attention should be paid to subsequent rebound momentum. Short-term resistance above is around the 3020-3050 area (previous support turned resistance), with stronger resistance at 3080-3130 and around 3170. Support below is focused on the 2900-2850 area. Throughout the day, it is essential to also observe whether Bitcoin can stabilize at 85000 dollars; if Bitcoin further breaks down, it may lead Ethereum to test support below 2850.
Strategy thoughts: Consider lightly attempting short positions when the price rebounds to the 3030-3070 range, targeting the 2980-2930 area. If the price retraces to the 2870-2900 range and finds support, consider lightly attempting long positions, targeting the 3000-3020 area.
Market highlights suggest that in the context of changing liquidity expectations among major global central banks, various assets face a revaluation of their worth. This market volatility reflects the resonance effect of macro policy expectation adjustments and the high leverage structure within the cryptocurrency market. It warns investors that a singular short-term technical analysis framework may have limitations when facing systemic macro narratives.
For Bitcoin, losing the 86,000 level indicates that the adjustment is deepening, with the next core observation point at the key technical level around 85,569 dollars. For Ethereum, 2,900 dollars has become an important defense line recently, and the eventual gain or loss of this position may determine its subsequent direction.
A few suggestions for investors
Respect the trend and manage risk: During a clearly downward trend, safeguarding principal safety should be the top priority. Avoid counter-trend operations while being wary of the psychology of blindly bottom-fishing.
Control position and remain flexible: The current market may amplify fluctuations due to chain liquidations, leading to high uncertainty. Reducing holdings to very low levels or temporarily holding cash can help maintain initiative and reserve chips for future opportunities.
Wait patiently for market stabilization signals: The construction of market bottoms often requires time, typically accompanied by shrinking trading volumes, price range consolidation, and divergences in multi-level technical indicators. It is advisable to patiently wait for such stabilization signals to become clear before considering phased planning.
Amid market volatility, it is particularly important to remain cautious. I hope to work with all market participants to closely monitor developments and respond prudently to changes.
